A NEW EQUILIBRIUM: THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

The document examines the strategic realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean involving the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Israel, and Turkey. It argues that while the RoC, Israel, and Greece have formed a new security bloc to balance Turkey's naval ambitions, a structural need to contain Iranian influence is driving a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey. This shift is further incentivized by commercial imperatives, as the discovery of Egypt's Zohr gas field makes Turkey a more viable export market for Israeli natural gas. The author contends that these twin dynamics—the Turkey-Israel rapprochement and the RoC-Israel-Greece security formation—provide a new balance of incentives and guarantees that could facilitate a resolution to the Cyprus conflict.

• The rapprochement between Turkey and Israel is driven by a structural need to maintain a balance of power against the expanding influence of Iran in the Middle East, which outweighs previous bilateral tensions.
• Israel's commercial necessity to export natural gas has shifted toward Turkey following the discovery of the Zohr field in Egypt, which is the largest find in the Eastern Mediterranean with 850 bcm of gas and can satisfy Egypt's own domestic demand.
• Turkey views the import of Israeli natural gas as a strategic imperative to diversify its energy supply and reduce its dependency on Russia and Iran, which together provide over 75 percent of its natural gas.
• The Republic of Cyprus, Israel, and Greece have established a new security formation to counter Turkey's assertive naval doctrine and 'blue-water' ambitions, including Turkey's construction of a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) aircraft carrier.
• Defense cooperation between Israel and Greece reached a strategic milestone in July 2015 with the signing of a status of forces agreement (SOFA), an agreement Israel has not entered into with any state other than the United States.
• The combination of the Turkey-Israel rapprochement and the RoC-Israel-Greece security bloc creates a new equilibrium that may provide the necessary incentives and security guarantees to resolve the Cyprus conflict.

APA

Tanchum, M. (2015). A NEW EQUILIBRIUM: THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/752ce7de-91d7-432f-a0f9-f292f21ff461/A New Equilibrium The Republic of Cyprus Israel and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Architecture.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tanchum, Michael. A NEW EQUILIBRIUM: THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2015. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/752ce7de-91d7-432f-a0f9-f292f21ff461/A New Equilibrium The Republic of Cyprus Israel and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Architecture.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tanchum |first1=Michael |title=A NEW EQUILIBRIUM: THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2015 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/752ce7de-91d7-432f-a0f9-f292f21ff461/A New Equilibrium The Republic of Cyprus Israel and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Architecture.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tanchum2015new, author = {Tanchum, Michael}, title = {{A NEW EQUILIBRIUM: THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2015}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/752ce7de-91d7-432f-a0f9-f292f21ff461/A New Equilibrium The Republic of Cyprus Israel and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Architecture.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }