Categorization of INDCs in the light of Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement

This research paper analyzes 163 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (I)NDCs submitted by October 12, 2016, to evaluate how their diverse structures impact the robust accounting of international transfers under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The authors categorize targets by type, scope, and methodology, concluding that economy-wide absolute emission targets are the most conducive to straightforward accounting.

• Economy-wide absolute emission targets are the most effective for facilitating robust accounting of international transfers. As of October 12, 2016, 18 (I)NDCs with such targets covered approximately 41% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
• There is significant diversity in target types among the 163 analyzed (I)NDCs. While 43 countries have absolute GHG targets, 74 have targets relative to business-as-usual (BAU) projections, and 10 have intensity targets. Additionally, 4 countries aim to peak emissions before 2030 without quantified targets, and 14 pledged only actions without specific targets.
• Sectoral and geographical coverage varies, though a majority of global emissions are covered by comprehensive targets. 71 (I)NDCs address all sectors of the national economy, representing 86% of global GHG emissions. In contrast, 92 countries exclude at least one sector, though all of these still include the energy sector.
• The coverage of specific greenhouse gases is inconsistent. 40 (I)NDCs, representing about 57% of global GHG emissions, include all six or seven standard GHGs. However, 16 (I)NDCs covering about 25% of global emissions include only CO2, and 72 countries covering only 7.4% of emissions include CO2, CH4, and N2O.
• Conditionality is a common feature for developing countries. 49 countries (12% of global GHG emissions) have only conditional targets, and 80 countries (16% of global GHG emissions) have both conditional and unconditional targets. Unconditional targets alone cover about 70% of global GHG emissions and include almost all industrialized countries except Turkey.
• There is a lack of standardization in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) values and IPCC guidelines used. 33 countries (45% of global emissions) use the 4th IPCC assessment report, while 45 countries (5% of global emissions) use the 2nd report. 42% of global GHG emissions are covered by countries that do not specify which GWP values they intend to use.
• Interest in international carbon markets is present but not universally specified. 80 countries, representing about 25% of global GHG emissions, express support for international market mechanisms, while 17 countries (32% of global emissions) explicitly declare they do not intend to participate.
• Among G20 countries, most have pledged GHG emission targets and generally employ economy-wide coverage. Notable exceptions include China, which only included CO2 in its intensity target, and Saudi Arabia, which has no quantified target and only covers some energy subsectors.

APA

Graichen, J., Cames, M., & Schneider, L. (2016). Categorization of INDCs in the light of Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/DEHSt-2016-Categorization-INDCs-Article6-Paris-Agreement.pdf

Chicago

Graichen, Jakob, Martin Cames, and Lambert Schneider. Categorization of INDCs in the light of Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/DEHSt-2016-Categorization-INDCs-Article6-Paris-Agreement.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Graichen |first1=Jakob |last2=Cames |first2=Martin |last3=Schneider |first3=Lambert |title=Categorization of INDCs in the light of Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/DEHSt-2016-Categorization-INDCs-Article6-Paris-Agreement.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{graichen2016categorization, author = {Graichen, Jakob and Cames, Martin and Schneider, Lambert}, title = {{Categorization of INDCs in the light of Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/DEHSt-2016-Categorization-INDCs-Article6-Paris-Agreement.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }