Fossil fuel production in a 2°C world: The equity implications of a diminishing carbon budget

The document examines the tension between treating fossil fuel suppliers as polluters and recognizing extraction as a sovereign right for development. It argues that meeting Paris Agreement targets requires leaving a majority of proven reserves in the ground, which would disproportionately impact lower-income regions through the loss of significant resource rents.

• To maintain a likely chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, the available carbon budget is less than one-third of the carbon contained in proven fossil fuel reserves.
• Meeting climate mitigation objectives will necessitate leaving most proven fossil fuel reserves unused; specifically, one study suggests that by 2010–2050, a third of oil, half of gas, and over 80% of coal reserves must remain in the ground to meet the 2°C target.
• Historical fossil fuel rents (1970–2010) have been highly unequally distributed, with 10% of the world's population living in countries that received over 65% of total rents, resulting in a Gini coefficient of 0.78.
• Constraining fossil fuel extraction to a 2°C pathway would lead to significant forgone rents that disproportionately affect lower-income regions. Forgone rents as a share of 2010 income per capita range from 0.3% to 1.7% for the four highest-income regions, compared to 2.5% to 29% for the seven lowest-income regions.
• The disparity in forgone rents is partly because higher-income regions have already extracted a larger share of their resources. By 2010, the four higher-income regions had exploited nearly 75% of their resources in terms of rents, while lower-income regions had exploited less than 25%.
• The 'extraction as pollution' perspective argues that suppliers should be held responsible for the emissions resulting from the use of their products, leading to calls for 'carbon asset risk' disclosure, divestment, and legal liability for climate damages.

APA

Kartha, S., Lazarus, M., & Tempest, K. (2016). Fossil fuel production in a 2°C world: The equity implications of a diminishing carbon budget. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2016-Equity-fossil-fuel-production-rents.pdf

Chicago

Kartha, Sivan, Michael Lazarus, and Kevin Tempest. Fossil fuel production in a 2°C world: The equity implications of a diminishing carbon budget. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2016-Equity-fossil-fuel-production-rents.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kartha |first1=Sivan |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |last3=Tempest |first3=Kevin |title=Fossil fuel production in a 2°C world: The equity implications of a diminishing carbon budget |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2016-Equity-fossil-fuel-production-rents.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kartha2016fossil, author = {Kartha, Sivan and Lazarus, Michael and Tempest, Kevin}, title = {{Fossil fuel production in a 2°C world: The equity implications of a diminishing carbon budget}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2016-Equity-fossil-fuel-production-rents.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }