Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action

One year after the Paris Agreement's adoption, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds that national climate policies have made little progress. If NDCs are fully implemented, global warming by 2100 is estimated at 2.8°C, while current policies would lead to 3.6°C. A significant emissions gap remains for 2025 and 2030. The report highlights specific national trajectories, noting that most assessed NDCs are inadequate or medium in ambition, with particular concerns regarding the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, while noting positive renewable energy growth in India.

• Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as of November 1, 2016, is projected to result in global warming of 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a likely chance of holding warming below 3.1°C.
• There is a substantial gap between NDC emissions and the benchmark pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals, estimated at 14–17 GtCO2e by 2025 and 21–24 GtCO2e by 2030 for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
• Current government policies are insufficient to meet their own NDCs; current policies are projected to lead to 3.6°C of warming by 2100, which is 0.5 to 1.1°C higher than the NDC scenario.
• Of 31 government NDCs assessed by the CAT, only five are rated as 'Sufficient' against a 2°C benchmark; 14 are rated 'Inadequate' and 12 are rated 'Medium'.
• India is experiencing a rapid growth in renewable energy installations that is displacing planned coal, though its NDC does not yet reflect these developments.
• China is on track to peak CO2 emissions between 2025 and 2030, but total greenhouse gas emissions may continue to rise until at least 2030 due to a lack of commitments for other gases from industry and agriculture.
• The Kigali Amendment aims to phase out 80–85% of HFC emissions by the late 2040s, which may slightly reduce the 2.8°C warming estimate, though the additionality of these reductions relative to NDCs is still being analyzed.
• The ICAO agreed on mandatory GHG emissions standards for new aircraft from 2028 and a market-based offsetting measure for emissions growth after 2020, but the global warming benefit is currently impossible to quantify due to uncertainties and the exclusion of baseline emissions.

APA

Rocha, M., Ural, U., Cantzler, J., Parra, P., Schaeffer, M., Hare, B., Höhne, N., Kuramochi, T., Hagemann, M., Fekete, H., Sterl, S., Gonzales, S., Hans, F., Wouters, K., El-Laboudy, T., Mir, G. U. R., Wong, L., Deng, Y., & Blok, K. (2016). Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/48/CAT_2016-11-10_TemperatureUpdateNov16_CATUpdate.pdf

Chicago

Rocha, Marcia, Uñur Ural, Jasmin Cantzler, Paola Parra, Michiel Schaeffer, Bill Hare, Niklas Höhne, et al. Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action. NewClimate Institute, 2016. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/48/CAT_2016-11-10_TemperatureUpdateNov16_CATUpdate.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{rocha2016paris, author = {Rocha, Marcia and Ural, Uñur and Cantzler, Jasmin and Parra, Paola and Schaeffer, Michiel and Hare, Bill and Höhne, Niklas and Kuramochi, Takeshi and Hagemann, Markus and Fekete, Hanna and Sterl, Sebastian and Gonzales, Sofia and Hans, Frederic and Wouters, Karlien and El-Laboudy, Tarik and Mir, Goher Ur Rehman and Wong, Lindee and Deng, Yvonne and Blok, Kornelis}, title = {{Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/48/CAT_2016-11-10_TemperatureUpdateNov16_CATUpdate.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }