Search Climate Insights Directory
1,117 results
Illicit Financial Flows
This research paper analyzes illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa, estimating that approximately US$89 billion leaves the continent annually. It identifies multinational commercial activities (65%) and criminal/corrupt activities (35%) as the primary drivers. The document highlights the resulting deficits in health and education spending and critiques the US as a secrecy jurisdiction. It evaluates efforts to combat IFFs through the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), the EITI, and the OECD/G20 BEPS framework, noting that African nations seek a higher global minimum corporate tax rate of 20%.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa: Introduction
This research paper provides a comprehensive geographic, political, and socio-economic introduction to Africa, detailing its physical landscape, colonial history, administrative structures, and immense cultural and linguistic diversity.
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Document type: Research paper
Leapfrogging
The report explores how Africa can 'leapfrog' traditional development stages by adopting decentralised renewable energy, mobile-first digital infrastructure, and AI. It highlights the success of mobile money (e.g., M-Pesa) and the potential for solar mini-grids to close the energy gap. A projected 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario suggests that by 2050, such strategic investments could increase GDP per capita by US$510, reduce extreme poverty by 63 million people, and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current trends.
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Document type: Report
Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the energy access gap in Africa and the potential for 'leapfrogging' traditional fossil-fuel grids in favor of decentralized renewable energy systems, specifically solar-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions.
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Document type: Research paper
Mobile Phones and Broadband—a big Leap for Africa
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the role of mobile technology and broadband in Africa's technological leapfrogging. It details the shift from fixed-line to mobile networks, the impact of mobile broadband on poverty reduction, and the emergence of satellite internet solutions to bridge connectivity gaps in remote areas.
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Document type: Report
Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and social impacts of a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa through 2050, comparing it against a 'Current Path' baseline.
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Document type: Research paper
Technological Leapfrogging and the Formalisation of Africa’s Informal Sector
This research paper examines how technological leapfrogging, specifically through digital ID systems and mobile payment platforms, can facilitate the incremental formalisation of Africa's large informal economy to increase productivity and domestic revenue mobilisation.
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Document type: Research paper
The cost of delay: Africa’s energy transition is being decided elsewhere
A statement by Natural Justice arguing that African nations must accelerate their transition to sovereign renewable energy systems to avoid the economic instability and foreign control caused by global conflicts and fossil fuel dependency.
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Document type: Statement
Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel
This research paper analyzes the rapid growth and tactical evolution of the Islamic State–Sahel Province (IS-SP) between 2019 and 2026. It details how IS-SP has transitioned from a small affiliate to a deadly regional force through structural governance, tactical innovations—including the first use of drones in Niger—and increased strategic guidance from IS Core. The document highlights the collapse of regional security architectures and the escalating rivalry between IS-SP and the al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM as primary drivers of instability in the Sahel.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper concludes that Africa's labour force growth is projected to outpace job creation, potentially leading to increased dependence on the informal sector, social instability, and irregular migration. It emphasizes the need for digitisation, investment in infrastructure, and a shift toward entrepreneurship and vocational training to harness the potential of the continent's youth and the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
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Document type: Research paper
Why capital market development matters and where the focus should be
This report by FSD Africa argues that domestic capital market development is essential for African economies to mobilize long-term finance for climate adaptation, infrastructure, and demographic shifts, especially as bilateral aid and foreign direct investment decline. It suggests that while public equity markets are often prioritized, they are frequently impractical for smaller or frontier markets due to high costs and information asymmetries. Instead, the report advocates for a focus on strengthening the savings base through pension reforms and macro-financial stability, developing corporate bond markets, and utilizing hybrid public-private structures, guarantees, and pooled investment vehicles to channel institutional capital into infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs.
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Document type: Report
India and Africa: bridging the gap between words and deeds
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between India and Africa, arguing that while India possesses significant comparative advantages based on historical ties and shared developmental goals, there is a persistent gap between its strategic rhetoric and material outcomes. The author identifies structural constraints—including limited fiscal headroom, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and reputational risks—that have caused India to lag behind other global powers like China. The report recommends a coherent Africa strategy focused on low-cost, high-impact initiatives in health, education, and digital finance, utilizing 'anchor states' such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt to scale interventions.
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Document type: Report
Credit Rating Agencies in an African Context
This policy brief examines how the methodologies of major private credit rating agencies (CRAs) negatively impact African development by inflating risk premiums and increasing the cost of capital. It argues that these agencies operate as an oligopoly with subjective, biased methodologies that ignore social indicators and long-term development. To counter this, the document discusses the establishment of the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) and proposes broader reforms to the international financial architecture, including the creation of a global fiscal body and improved domestic fiscal transparency and debt management in African nations.
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Document type: Policy brief
Security, Sovereignty and the Collapse of Multilateralism in the Sahel
This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the collapse of multilateralism in the Sahel, focusing on how military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have led to the formation of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) and a strategic pivot away from Western-led institutions toward partners like Russia and China.
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Document type: Briefing
Niger-Benin: a narrow window for diplomatic reset
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies argues that the election of Romuald Wadagni as president of Benin on 12 April 2026 provides a strategic opportunity to reset diplomatic relations with Niger and reduce regional tensions. The authors suggest that the African Union (AU), specifically through the AU Mission for Mali and the Sahel, is best positioned to facilitate this dialogue to address security and economic liabilities resulting from the current impasse.
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Document type: Briefing
Global Electricity Insights
The global electricity sector has transitioned from fossil-fuelled growth to clean growth, with clean power meeting all global demand growth in 2025. This shift is driven largely by the plateauing of fossil generation in China and the rapid scale-up of solar and wind power. Battery storage is now emerging as a critical technology to displace fossil fuels during non-daylight hours, particularly in high-solar regions.
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Document type: Report
Agriculture
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the historical structural challenges of African agriculture and models an 'Agriculture scenario' to demonstrate how a transition toward high-productivity, technology-driven farming could reduce food insecurity and poverty by 2043.
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Document type: Report
Discrimination in the Family
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.
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Document type: Report
Impact of the Agriculture Scenario
This report analyzes the projected impacts of a specific 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it against a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario envisions a significant increase in agricultural production, reduced food import dependence, and substantial poverty reduction, though it notes that these gains depend on technological adoption and climate factors.
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Document type: Report
Impact of the Gender Scenario
This research paper analyzes the potential economic and social impacts of reducing gender gaps in education and labor force participation across Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender scenario' against a 'Current Path' forecast, finding that aggressive reductions in gender inequality would significantly increase GDP, raise GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty, and improve child health and human development indices across the continent.
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Document type: Research paper