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The document examines the AfCFTA, an agreement aiming to create a single market for goods, services, and investment across 55 African countries. It highlights potential gains such as a 52% increase in intra-African trade and a 4% rise in total exports, while identifying significant hurdles including poor infrastructure, non-tariff barriers, and varying levels of political commitment. The paper specifically discusses the tensions between larger economies and less-developed countries (LDCs) regarding tariff liberalisation and special and differential treatment, as well as the complexities of overlapping memberships in Regional Economic Communities (RECs). It concludes that the success of the AfCFTA depends on domestic implementation and the ability of AU members to align national interests with continental goals.

The policy brief assesses the evolution of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and identifies strategic opportunities for South Africa during its 2017-2018 chairmanship. While acknowledging IORA's progress in establishing priority areas like the Blue Economy and maritime security, the author argues that the organisation is hindered by a consensus-based decision-making process that avoids controversy and a 'member-driven approach' that lacks continuity and transparency. The brief recommends that South Africa focus on institutional reforms to better integrate academic and policy research, strengthen ties with other African member states and the 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy, and improve the Secretariat's monitoring and reporting functions.

The SADC region faces a significant electricity supply-demand gap, with 68% of residents lacking access and a heavy reliance on coal, primarily driven by South Africa. The report argues for a dual approach: strengthening the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) through better regional regulation and transboundary projects, and scaling up renewable energy mini-grids in rural areas. It highlights that while the region has vast solar, wind, and hydro potential, investment is hindered by poor policy frameworks and the financial insolvency of national utilities.

The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

The report outlines a variety of passive and active cooling strategies for urban environments, ranging from nature-based solutions like tree planting and green roofs to technical interventions such as cool pavements and district cooling systems. It emphasizes the importance of integrated urban planning, the implementation of Heat Action Plans to protect vulnerable populations, and the use of diverse policy incentives and business models to scale these solutions.

The document examines Malawi's position regarding four plurilateral trade agreements: the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA), the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), the Information Technology Agreement II (ITA-II), and the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA). While government officials suggest that TiSA and ITA-II could boost industrialization and competitiveness, GTAP modelling indicates that overall gains from participating in these negotiations would be very small or non-existent. Malawi currently faces significant challenges, including an undiversified export base dominated by tobacco, high costs of doing business, and limited human and financial capacity within the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism to engage effectively in complex WTO negotiations.

The document examines the pervasive impact of corruption on African youth, who are identified as both primary victims and increasingly as perpetrators. It highlights how corruption fuels instability, conflict, and migration, while arguing that current youth engagement in anti-corruption efforts is superficial. The brief recommends structural changes, including amending the AU Advisory Board on Corruption's membership and implementing access to information laws, to ensure youth are active partners in designing and driving anti-corruption initiatives.

The report argues that SADC countries can reduce processed food trade deficits and mitigate climate change risks by shifting from national industrial policies to regional value chains (RVCs). It identifies a significant opportunity for Zambia, Tanzania, and Mozambique to replace South Africa's deep-sea soya oilcake imports with regional production. However, it notes that the sugar sector is hindered by protectionist policies and the market power of dominant firms, which keep industrial sugar prices high and stifle downstream confectionery processing. The author proposes practical interventions, including a regional transportation information system to solve 'backhaul' constraints and the harmonisation of quality standards to facilitate intra-regional trade.

Between 2010 and 2015, US$ 978 million in climate finance was committed to seven Indian Ocean and African SIDS, with 83% of these funds concentrated in Cape Verde and Mauritius. The financing was dominated by bilateral ODA loans (74%) and primarily targeted mitigation (56%) over adaptation (42%). Sectoral focus was narrow, concentrating on water and sanitation, energy, and general environmental protection, while critical resilience sectors like health, education, and agriculture were largely ignored. Disbursement rates were notably low, with only 39% of committed funds actually spent across the region, a rate significantly lower than for non-climate ODA.

The document examines the governance of marine and coastal resources in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), emphasizing the need for integrated coastal management (ICM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) to balance economic growth with biodiversity conservation. It highlights the role of marine protected areas (MPAs) and locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) in securing ecosystem services and supporting livelihoods. The author argues that for the 'Blue Economy' to be sustainable, conservation must be integrated into development agendas through economic valuations of natural capital and inclusive, community-based management to avoid 'ocean grabbing' and ensure equitable benefit-sharing.

The GCF Board approved eight funding proposals totaling USD 387.5 million and accredited seven new entities. Key administrative outcomes include the approval of a USD 43.4 million budget for 2017 and the establishment of work plans for the Independent Redress Mechanism and Independent Integrity Units. The Board also discussed the Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme, allocating up to an additional USD 50 million to it.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is requesting USD 265 million from the Green Climate Fund (GCF)—USD 250 million for an investment vehicle and USD 15 million for a technical assistance facility—to launch GEEREF NeXt. Structured as a fund-of-funds, the programme aims for a total size of USD 750 million, blending GCF public seed capital with USD 500 million in private sector finance. The programme targets the development, construction, and operation of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) projects in emerging markets, expecting to finance over 200 projects and add up to 18 GW of clean energy capacity. By using a two-tier capital structure with a 'first-loss' mechanism for public capital, GEEREF NeXt intends to mitigate risk for private investors and achieve a projected 50x multiplier, potentially mobilising USD 30 billion in total project financing. The programme will be managed by the EIB Group, leveraging the experience of its predecessor, the Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund (GEEREF).

The report introduces Integrated Energy Productivity (IEP), a metric that expands the traditional economic definition of energy productivity to include social and environmental benefits, weighed against fossil fuel energy inputs. Analyzing data from 2012 to 2014 for seven IFIs—ADB, EBRD, EIB, IDB, KfW/DEG, OPIC, and the World Bank—the study finds that while most energy investments are IEP-positive or relevant, energy efficiency projects are significantly underfunded, representing only 14% of energy portfolios. The report identifies a lack of standardized IEP targets across IFIs and recommends mainstreaming energy efficiency through operational safeguards and a joint IFI framework for tracking impact.

The report argues that insurance promotes growth through two primary channels: risk mitigation (protecting assets and facilitating credit) and intermediation (mobilizing long-term capital for investment). It identifies a four-stage evolution path for insurance markets, noting that most sub-Saharan African countries are currently in the first two stages, where asset insurance dominates and the intermediation-for-growth role is not yet active. The transition to the third stage—retail expansion—is hindered by low income levels, high economic informalisation, and a shortage of actuarial skills. The authors recommend stage-appropriate interventions, such as developing contractual savings solutions for the informal sector and improving domestic professional capacity, to unlock the sector's potential to support capital markets and inclusive growth.

The document analyzes France's strategic use of its territories, military presence, and diplomatic ties to maintain influence in the Indian Ocean Region. It highlights the tension between established powers like France and emerging economies such as China, India, and South Africa, particularly regarding the 'Blue Economy' and maritime security.

The document examines the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of Soufriere, St Lucia, as part of the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation Policy Development (GIVRAPD) project. It utilizes the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework, which evaluates five elements: asset base, institutions and entitlements, knowledge and information, innovation, and flexible forward-looking decision-making and governance. The paper aims to align the LAC framework with an evolutionary perspective on adaptive capacity and test the tool's applicability across different geographical contexts.

The document introduces a case study on the adaptive capacity of Whitehouse, Jamaica, as part of the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation Policy Development (GIVRAPD) project. It utilizes the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework, which evaluates five elements: asset base, institutions and entitlements, knowledge and information, innovation, and flexible forward-looking decision-making and governance. The paper aims to align the LAC framework with an evolutionary perspective on adaptive capacity and test the tool's applicability across different geographical contexts.

The research investigates the potential for micro-insurance to serve as a climate adaptation tool for vulnerable coastal communities in Small Island Developing States. The study concludes that despite differences between the examined islands, micro-insurance products can be developed to suit their specific characteristics and enhance community resilience against climate change.

The document highlights the severe economic impacts of climate change on the Caribbean, specifically within agriculture and tourism. It leverages CDKN-funded research to propose adaptation strategies, such as crop diversification and multi-stakeholder tourism management, while emphasizing the need for financial support to overcome high up-front costs for small-scale actors.

The report analyzes development trajectories for 14 Southern African countries, forecasting that while GDP is expected to grow, extreme poverty will persist due to rapid population growth and governance challenges. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated policy interventions in governance, health, education, and infrastructure can significantly improve regional outcomes, with governance capacity identified as the primary catalyst for economic growth.