Climate impacts on agriculture and tourism: the case for climate resilient investment in the Caribbean

This policy brief examines the vulnerabilities of the Caribbean's agriculture and tourism sectors to climate change, drawing on CDKN-funded research. It argues that urgent investment in climate resilience is necessary to prevent the reversal of economic growth and poverty alleviation, proposing specific adaptation measures and the use of decision-support tools to prioritise 'no regret' investments.

• Climate change and natural disasters have caused severe economic losses in the Caribbean, with the Inter-American Development Bank estimating losses of approximately US$33 billion between 2000 and 2009. Individual nations have faced devastating shocks, such as Guyana, where a 2005 flood cost 62% of its GDP.
• The Caribbean agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall and temperature. Projections indicate that the region will experience warmer conditions and rainfall in shorter, more intense spells, with extreme droughts expected once every five years by the mid-21st century. In Belize, dry bean yields could fall by up to 60% by the 2050s, and corn yields are expected to drop by around 25% from 2010 levels by the 2030s.
• Adaptation strategies for agriculture include crop diversification (such as sweet potato in Jamaica, which could see yield increases of up to 33% by 2041–70), investing in drip-feed irrigation to increase vegetable yields by 50%, and adopting micro-insurance. However, high up-front costs are a barrier for small-scale farmers, such as the 4,000 farmers in Saint Lucia with plots under 1 acre.
• The tourism sector, which contributed US$51.9 billion (14.6% of GDP) in 2014, is highly exposed to climate risks. In Belize, 94% of tourist accommodation and 79% of attractions are at lower coastal elevations, making them vulnerable to hurricanes and coastal inundation. Additionally, coral bleaching threatens reef-based activities, which attract over 80% of tourists.
• Climate change may alter tourist behaviour and demographics; research from Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Tobago suggests that tourists from cooler climates have lower tolerance for increased temperatures, potentially shifting the origin countries of visitors. Tourists may also change their activities, such as avoiding cities or spending more time within hotel complexes as temperatures rise.
• Effective tourism adaptation requires multi-stakeholder approaches and national policy frameworks. In Belize, recommended measures include restricting building to areas at least 2.6 metres above mean sea level and 30 metres from the high-tide mark. The Soufriere Marine Management Area in Saint Lucia is cited as a successful example of managing conservation amidst competing interests from tourism, fishermen, and conservationists.
• The cost of adaptation in the Caribbean is significant, with World Bank estimates at US$21 billion per year and UNEP estimates potentially five times higher. To manage these costs, the document recommends prioritising 'no regret' and 'low regret' options using tools like the Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation Tool (CCORAL).

APA

Bugler, W., & Palin, O. (2017). Climate impacts on agriculture and tourism: the case for climate resilient investment in the Caribbean. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean_tourism_PB_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Bugler, Will, and Olivia Palin. Climate impacts on agriculture and tourism: the case for climate resilient investment in the Caribbean. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean_tourism_PB_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bugler |first1=Will |last2=Palin |first2=Olivia |title=Climate impacts on agriculture and tourism: the case for climate resilient investment in the Caribbean |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=February 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean_tourism_PB_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bugler2017climate, author = {Bugler, Will and Palin, Olivia}, title = {{Climate impacts on agriculture and tourism: the case for climate resilient investment in the Caribbean}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = feb, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean_tourism_PB_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }