DEVELOPMENT TRENDS REPORT FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

The report analyzes development trajectories for 14 Southern African countries, forecasting that while GDP is expected to grow, extreme poverty will persist due to rapid population growth and governance challenges. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated policy interventions in governance, health, education, and infrastructure can significantly improve regional outcomes, with governance capacity identified as the primary catalyst for economic growth.

• Southern Africa's GDP is forecast to more than double from USD 700 billion in 2016 to over USD 1.6 trillion by 2040 along the Current Path scenario.
• Despite economic growth, extreme poverty is forecast to persist; by 2040, over 41 percent of the population will live on less than $1.90 per day, representing an absolute increase of roughly 40 million people in extreme poverty compared to 2016.
• Madagascar and Malawi are forecast to remain the poorest countries in the region through 2040, together accounting for approximately 45 percent of the region's extreme poor.
• Governance is identified as the critical factor for sustainable development, with the 'Strengthening Governance' scenario producing the greatest direct impact on GDP growth.
• The region faces a 'double-burden' of disease, where communicable diseases currently account for 55 percent of deaths, but noncommunicable diseases are expected to become the primary cause of mortality by 2030.
• Southern Africa has the highest HIV prevalence globally; while antiretroviral treatments have reduced death rates, the disability impact of the disease is forecast to exceed the mortality impact from the mid-2020s.
• Educational attainment is hindered by significant bottlenecks, particularly in primary school survival in countries like Mozambique, Madagascar, and Angola, and upper secondary enrollment in Botswana and Zimbabwe.
• Electricity access is forecast to increase from 47 percent in 2016 to 61 percent by 2040, though roughly 40 percent of the population will still lack access; most new capacity is expected from fossil fuels and nuclear energy, with a substantial portion from renewables.
• Agricultural demand is forecast to increase by over 80 percent by 2040, driven by population growth and rising incomes, which may increase food import dependence if domestic production and access are not improved.
• China has become the main trading partner for the region, and its influence is forecast to grow, with over 20 percent of total trade for most Southern African countries expected to be with China by 2040.

APA

Bohl, D. K., Hedden, S., Moyer, J. D., Narayan, K., & Rettig, J. (2017). DEVELOPMENT TRENDS REPORT FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-02-28-usaid-southern-africa-futures-report.pdf

Chicago

Bohl, David K., Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Jessica Rettig. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS REPORT FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-02-28-usaid-southern-africa-futures-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bohl |first1=David K. |last2=Hedden |first2=Steve |last3=Moyer |first3=Jonathan D. |last4=Narayan |first4=Kanishka |last5=Rettig |first5=Jessica |title=DEVELOPMENT TRENDS REPORT FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=February 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-02-28-usaid-southern-africa-futures-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bohl2017development, author = {Bohl, David K. and Hedden, Steve and Moyer, Jonathan D. and Narayan, Kanishka and Rettig, Jessica}, title = {{DEVELOPMENT TRENDS REPORT FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-02-28-usaid-southern-africa-futures-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }