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Between 20–22 June 2026, the Gulf of Guinea coast experienced severe flooding following intense rainfall, with over 140 mm falling in less than 24 hours in some areas. The event caused significant fatalities in Côte d’Ivoire (59 since May), Ghana (at least 34), and Togo (five). An attribution study found that observed 3-day rainfall intensity in the region has increased by approximately 23% since records began, making such events about five times more likely in the current climate (1.4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels) than in a cooler climate. While climate models support the trend of increasing precipitation, they systematically underestimate the observed increase, with models showing only a 4% increase in intensity. The study highlights that rapid urbanisation, the expansion of settlements into floodplains, and sea level rise exceeding the global average have compounded flood risks. Under a future warming scenario of 2.8°C, these heavy rainfall events are expected to become common occurrences.

Nigeria is positioning itself as an African EV hub by leveraging high vehicle demand and private sector innovation in battery swapping and asset financing. The proposed Electric Vehicle Transition and Green Mobility Bill seeks to drive this shift by mandating 30% local content for EVs by 2030 and providing tax incentives for manufacturers and users. While companies like Spiro and MAX are scaling infrastructure and fleets, the report suggests Nigeria could adopt a more gradual transition from imports to local manufacturing, similar to Rwanda and Ethiopia, to avoid stalling adoption.

The document describes a 'pragmatic' security integration between the US and Nigeria that avoids formal military treaties by using civilian instruments. By leveraging Section 126 of AGOA and the 'Safe Skies for Africa' initiative, the US provides decommissioned FAA equipment and technical assistance to modernize Nigerian airspace. This creates a 'shared awareness' corridor that serves both aviation safety and counter-insurgency monitoring, effectively replacing lost US surveillance capacity in the Sahel. However, the author warns that this operational deepening is contradicted by increasing political uncertainty in Washington regarding the future of AGOA, which some legislators seek to turn into a discretionary disciplinary tool.

The document analyzes Nigeria's transport sector, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels and accounts for 24% of national GHG emissions. It evaluates current policies, emerging green initiatives like the P-CNGI and Lagos E-Mobility Project, and provides recommendations for integrating climate action into national transport planning, drawing on lessons from Ethiopia and Kenya.

Air pollution is the second deadliest risk for children under five globally, causing over 709,000 deaths in 2021. Children are more vulnerable due to developing immune systems and higher breathing rates. The burden is heavily skewed by economic disparity, with children in the least-developed countries facing death rates 94 times higher than those in the most-developed nations. The document highlights how structural lock-ins to fossil fuels and polluting land-use practices drive this crisis, noting that less than 1% of fossil fuel subsidies were spent on outdoor air quality between 2018 and 2022. Case studies in South Africa, Brazil, Nigeria, and Bangladesh illustrate the specific drivers—such as coal power, biomass burning, brick kilns, and oil extraction—that contribute to high child mortality and lifelong developmental impairments.

The document details the journey of Dozie Igweilo and his company, QuadLoop, which addresses energy poverty and e-waste in Nigeria. By sourcing materials from formal and informal waste networks, QuadLoop produces the IDunnu solar lantern—composed of 70% e-waste—and offers a Battery-as-a-Service model for other solar firms. The case study highlights the company's iterative product design process, its reliance on personal savings and a USD 10,000 Shell Foundation grant, and its commitment to local youth employment. It also identifies systemic barriers to African innovation, including high electricity costs, expensive international shipping, and high customs duties on components like printed circuit boards.

The report analyzes how climate change acts as a driver of conflict in Nigeria, specifically through resource competition, livelihood loss, and displacement. It details the interaction between environmental stressors and security issues, such as farmer-herder clashes and recruitment into armed groups like Boko Haram. The document proposes a five-step sequence to mainstream conflict sensitivity and peacebuilding into the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), ranging from institutional framework development to the inclusion of peacebuilding markers in monitoring and evaluation.

In 2021/22, Nigeria received USD 2.5 billion in climate finance, a 32% increase from 2019/20, yet this remains far below the estimated annual need of USD 29.7 billion. Public actors, led by multilateral development finance institutions, provided 70% of the funding, while private contributions reached 30%, primarily driven by corporate investments in solar PV. Mitigation efforts dominated the landscape, particularly in energy systems, while adaptation finance reached only USD 0.74 billion, covering just 6% of estimated needs. The report highlights critical barriers including high capital costs, a lack of bankable projects, and heavy reliance on debt, which is concerning given Nigeria's substantial debt burden. Key recommendations include operationalizing the National Climate Change Fund, prioritizing anticipatory adaptation, and developing a domestic green industry to reduce import dependence.

The report analyzes the Oko Oba Abattoir's anaerobic digestion (AD) facility, finding that while the current 'business-as-usual' (BAU) model is economically viable with a 6% IRR, scaling the facility to achieve a 100% fuel switch from charcoal to biogas would increase the IRR to 14%. The study highlights that high upfront capital expenditures (CAPEX) are a primary barrier to private investment, suggesting that grants, low-interest loans, and investment tax credits could improve project economics. Environmentally, the project reduces methane emissions by up to 726 MT/year and improves local air quality by avoiding PM2.5 emissions from charcoal burning. The facility is currently non-operational due to storm damage and requires approximately $21,400 for repairs.

The paper argues that green technologies in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, waste management, and green construction can significantly reduce youth unemployment in Africa. It highlights specific successes, such as Morocco's Noor Solar Complex and South Africa's REIPPPP, while noting that widespread adoption is blocked by financing gaps, currency volatility, and policy-implementation disconnects. The authors recommend targeted vocational training, blended finance models, and strengthened public-private partnerships to unlock these opportunities.

The Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan Update (ETIP 2.0) outlines a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060, requiring a total installed power capacity of 277 GW and an additional capital investment of approximately $500 billion USD above business-as-usual levels. The plan emphasizes a massive shift toward solar PV, which is projected to reach 209 GW by 2050, and the phasing out of diesel decentralized generators by 2030. In the transport sector, the plan envisions a transition where electric vehicles make up at least 80% of the fleet by 2050, while the cooking sector aims for universal access by 2030, eventually transitioning to e-cooking. Despite the high upfront costs, the transition is projected to result in fuel savings of $686 billion USD. Key barriers identified include high initial costs for EVs and e-cooking, unreliable grid supply, and a skills gap in green technologies.

In 2021/22, Nigeria received USD 2.5 billion in climate finance, a 32% increase from 2019/20, yet this remains far below the estimated annual need of USD 29.7 billion. Public actors provided 70% of the funding, led by multilateral development finance institutions (DFIs), while private finance accounted for 30%, primarily driven by corporate investments in solar PV. Mitigation efforts, particularly in energy systems, dominated the landscape, while adaptation finance reached only USD 735 million, covering just 6% of annual needs. The report highlights a heavy reliance on debt-based financing, which is concerning given Nigeria's high debt-servicing costs. Key barriers include the high cost of capital, a lack of bankable projects, and data gaps. The authors recommend operationalizing the National Climate Change Fund, prioritizing anticipatory adaptation, and pursuing innovative financing such as green bonds and debt-for-climate swaps.

The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for transitioning Nigeria's mass transportation to electric buses, emphasizing the Gross Cost Contract (GCC) as the most viable procurement model. It identifies the transport sector as a major emitter, contributing approximately 15% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Using Lagos as a primary case study, the document details technical specifications for e-buses, charging infrastructure requirements, and the financial benefits of a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach. It recommends a phased 24-month implementation plan and policy reforms to encourage local assembly and renewable energy integration for charging.

The enee.io energy monitoring system identified that a 48V VRLA battery bank in Lagos, Nigeria, was being overcharged, reaching a maximum of 2.35vpc (56.4v) and remaining there indefinitely. This overcharging caused energy loss of 6.2kWh per day and reduced the estimated battery life from 4.0 years to 2.1 years. By adjusting voltage regulation and implementing ongoing monitoring, the system estimates total daily savings of $7.12, consisting of $4.64 from extended battery life and $2.48 from reduced diesel consumption. The enee.io system, costing $340 USD for hardware and the first year's subscription, offers a projected return on investment of 48 days.

The Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP) identifies critical climate risks—sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and extreme heat—and proposes a $9 billion portfolio of 33 projects to mitigate these threats. The plan emphasizes diversifying financing mechanisms beyond concessional debt to include blended finance, grants, and nature-based solutions, while recommending policy and governance reforms to attract private investment.

The report examines Nigeria's decentralised renewable energy (DRE) sector, focusing on green mini-grids, solar home systems (SHS), and productive use of energy (PUE). While Nigeria has a significant energy access deficit—with 88.5 million people lacking electricity—it has developed a robust regulatory framework and a dynamic private sector. Growth is driven by international donor programmes and government initiatives like the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP). However, the sector faces substantial hurdles, including high inflation, foreign exchange risks, limited local manufacturing, and difficulty accessing affordable local credit.

The document examines the disconnect between Nigeria's top-down climate adaptation frameworks and the bottom-up initiatives already being implemented by local communities. It highlights that while national policies like the NDC and NAPF are comprehensive, they often exclude frontline stakeholders and lack clear implementation plans. Through case studies in Ogun and Anambra states and Lagos, the brief demonstrates how local actors use indigenous knowledge and nature-based solutions to combat deforestation, fisheries collapse, and gully erosion. It concludes that scaling up LLA can enhance national resilience if the government addresses critical gaps in finance, capacity building, and technology access.

The policy brief critiques the 'good governance' paradigm's reliance on transparency and accountability, arguing it often fails in developing countries like South Africa. It proposes alternative frameworks, including 'political settlements' theory, collective action, and behavioural sciences, to address systemic corruption as a collective action problem driven by social norms and economic incentives rather than individual malice.

This Request for Proposals (RFP) seeks a trainer to develop and implement the 2024 ARE Investment Academies, a capacity-building programme focused on project development and pitch deck writing for early-stage decentralised renewable energy (DRE) companies in Africa.

Nigeria faces a significant housing shortage of 17 million units, with a projected need for 700,000 units annually by 2050. The report finds that the policy environment for net zero carbon buildings is fragmented, lacking an overarching national strategy. While some financial instruments like concessional loans and green bonds are well-established, many others remain nascent or unused. The most severe barriers are political (lack of regulations and standards) and financial (lack of affordable finance and awareness of funding). The report recommends five priority areas: embodied carbon and materials, appliances and lighting, cooling, electricity generation, and clean cooking, proposing specific financial and policy pathways to scale these solutions.