Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP)

The Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP), published in June 2024 by FSD Africa and the Lagos State Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, is a strategic roadmap to protect Lagos from climate-driven risks. The plan identifies sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and extreme heat as the primary climate impact drivers, with a projected cost of inaction reaching nearly $40 billion by 2050. To mitigate these risks, LCARP proposes a $9 billion project portfolio consisting of 33 adaptation projects, aiming to mobilize between $700 million and $1.3 billion in annual climate finance by 2035. The plan emphasizes a shift from an overreliance on concessional debt toward a balanced mix of blended finance, grants, and nature-based solutions, supported by new governance structures and sector-specific policy reforms.

• Lagos is highly vulnerable to three primary Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs): sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and extreme heat. Projections indicate sea levels could rise up to 3 meters by 2050, temperatures could reach 46°C by 2070, and extreme rainfall could cause flooding up to 4 meters.
• The estimated cost of inaction regarding climate risks in Lagos is approximately $33 to $39 billion by 2050. This includes $5 billion in infrastructure damage, $6 billion for relocating vulnerable populations, and an annual GDP loss of $17 billion due to inundation disruptions.
• LCARP has developed a project portfolio of 33 adaptation projects with a total estimated cost of $9 billion. These are categorized into three financial archetypes: 14 bankable projects (~$3 billion), 10 requiring concessional finance (~$5-6 billion), and 9 requiring grants (~$1 billion).
• The state aims to mobilize between $700 million and $1.3 billion in climate finance annually to meet its adaptation needs, with a total financing ambition of $9 billion to $16 billion by 2035.
• Lagos currently relies heavily on concessional debt for approximately 90% of its adaptation and resilience finance. LCARP seeks to diversify this to a target mix of 30-40% debt and equity, 30-40% blended finance, 20% grants, and 10% nature-based and disaster risk financing.
• Two flagship bankable projects have reached the pre-feasibility stage: a waste-to-energy plant with a projected CAPEX of $400 million and a 12% IRR, and a wastewater treatment plant with a projected CAPEX of $750 million to $900 million and a 7% IRR.
• The plan introduces a 'Climate AI Tool', an online data science and analytics platform used to forecast climate impacts, model scenarios, and assess the cost of inaction to inform budgetary and fundraising decisions.
• LCARP identifies 17 tactical initiatives to drive implementation, including the establishment of a Project Management Office (PMO), the issuance of green bonds, and the development of a voluntary carbon market.
• The plan proposes a three-tier governance structure to oversee implementation, consisting of the Governor of Lagos, the LCARP Steering Committee (chaired by the Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources), and a Core LCARP Working Team.
• To attract investment, LCARP recommends eight best-practice policy initiatives, including the creation of a government-managed database of funding-ready projects, climate-tagged budget allocations, and a liberal foreign investment regime.

APA

FSD Africa (2024). Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP). https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf

Chicago

FSD Africa. Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP). 2024. https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=FSD Africa |title=Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP) |date=June 2024 |url=https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fsdafrica2024lagos, author = {{FSD Africa}}, title = {{Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP)}}, institution = {FSD Africa}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }