Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP)

The Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP) identifies critical climate risks—sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and extreme heat—and proposes a $9 billion portfolio of 33 projects to mitigate these threats. The plan emphasizes diversifying financing mechanisms beyond concessional debt to include blended finance, grants, and nature-based solutions, while recommending policy and governance reforms to attract private investment.

• Lagos is highly vulnerable to three primary Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs): sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and extreme heat. Projections indicate a sea-level increase of up to 3 meters by 2050, temperature rises of +1°C, and flooding up to 4 meters from extreme rainfall.
• The estimated cost of inaction for the three identified climate risks is approximately just under $40 billion by 2050. This includes $5 billion in infrastructure damage, $6 billion for relocating vulnerable populations, and an annual GDP loss of $17 billion due to inundation disruptions.
• The LCARP has developed a project portfolio of 33 adaptation projects with an estimated total cost of $9 billion. These are categorized into three archetypes: 14 bankable projects (~$3 billion), 10 requiring concessional finance (~$5-6 billion), and 9 requiring grants (~$1 billion).
• Lagos aims to mobilize between $700 million and $1.3 billion in climate finance investment annually to build resilient infrastructure, protect vulnerable populations, and improve crisis response.
• The state seeks to diversify its financing mix to reduce over-reliance on concessional debt (which currently accounts for ~90% of its A&R finance). The target mix includes 30-40% debt and equity, 30-40% blended finance, 20% grants, and 10% nature-based and disaster risk financing.
• Two flagship bankable projects have reached the pre-feasibility stage: a waste-to-energy plant with a projected CAPEX of $400 million and a 12% IRR, and a wastewater treatment plant with a projected CAPEX of $750 million and a 7% IRR.
• The plan identifies 17 tactical initiatives to drive resilience, including the establishment of a Project Management Office (PMO), the issuance of green bonds, and the development of a voluntary carbon market.
• Benchmarking against peer cities suggests eight policy initiatives to attract investment, such as creating a government-managed database of funding-ready projects and implementing climate-tagged budget allocations.
• Lagos's current climate governance is a three-layer system consisting of the State Climate Change Council, the State Technical Committee on Climate Change, and the Climate Change Forum, all coordinated by the Climate Change Secretariat.
• The 'Climate AI Tool' was developed to provide data-driven decision-making by forecasting regional exposure, assessing social and economic impacts, and mapping adaptation solutions across Local Government Areas (LGAs).

APA

FSD Africa (2024). Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP). https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf

Chicago

FSD Africa. Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP). 2024. https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=FSD Africa |title=Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP) |date=June 2024 |url=https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fsdafrica2024lagos, author = {{FSD Africa}}, title = {{Lagos State Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (LCARP)}}, institution = {FSD Africa}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-IV-LCARP-Phase-II-Report_compressed.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }