Search Climate Insights Directory

The Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF) developed a simulation game to communicate the complexities of its productive social safety net (PSSN) program to rural farmers. This tool was designed to help farmers understand conditional cash transfers and how PSSN participation manages rising drought risk. Following tests with over fifty farmers, TASAF adopted the game in 2012 as the primary extension tool for a national rollout targeting 13 million Tanzanians living below the poverty line.

The document reports that mean annual temperatures in Ethiopia have risen by 0.5 to 1.3°C since the 1960s, with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold nights. While national data is limited, trends from 1981-2000 indicate a decline in short rains (February to April) and slight increases in long rains (June to August) and late-year precipitation (October and November), posing risks to rain-fed agriculture and food security. Additionally, flood events are becoming more frequent, with major disruptions noted in 1997 and 2006.

The paper explores the impact of development interventions on local adaptive capacity in Ethiopia using the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework, which identifies five key characteristics: assets base, knowledge and information, institutions and entitlement, innovation, and flexible forward-looking governance. It argues that development partners must reassess the scale and scope of their interventions to better support individual and community agency and utilize evidence-based decision-making to foster a continuous process of learning and innovation.

The report examines the intersection of climate variability and development in Ethiopia, specifically focusing on how farmers and pastoralists are affected by drought and floods. It draws on research conducted by Haramaya University and government officials in the Oromiya, Afar, and Amhara Regional States to argue that climate adaptation efforts must be aligned with broader development plans to be effective.

The document argues that climate change planning in Ethiopia is under-invested and requires an approach that manages prediction uncertainty by fostering adaptive capacity. It draws on 2010-11 research conducted by Haramaya University and government officials across three Ethiopian sites to evaluate how existing interventions in social protection, sustainable livelihoods, and disaster risk management can be improved to better support vulnerable rural communities.

The document highlights the vulnerability of Uganda's agriculture-dependent economy to rainfall fluctuations and the challenges of obtaining accurate meteorological data due to infrastructure gaps and conflict. It focuses on climate trends and projections in Bundibugyo, Gulu, and Kotido to inform policy-makers on increasing the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods.

The research finds that most African countries are unlikely to meet the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors argue for a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 and below 3% by 2063. The paper emphasizes that poverty reduction requires a combination of pro-poor economic growth, social assistance, human development, and progressive social change, noting that policies must be tailored to individual country contexts due to varying initial conditions and poverty gaps.

The paper examines Ethiopia's position regarding the COMESA FTA, concluding that while trade liberalisation could increase general welfare through cheaper imports, it poses significant risks to Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector, potentially leading to job losses and revenue reductions. It highlights that Ethiopia is pursuing regional integration through bilateral infrastructure and energy projects—such as the LAPSSET Corridor and hydropower exports—rather than formal trade liberalisation.

The report analyzes the mitigation efforts of 14 priority countries and regions, highlighting a wide variation in ambition and activity. While large emitters like India and Indonesia have established legislation and quantitative targets, many other partner countries, particularly in Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), prioritize adaptation due to extreme vulnerability. The analysis identifies key trends, such as the integration of low-emissions paths into economic development strategies and a heavy reliance on donor-funded projects for capacity building and MRV systems.

The document evaluates South Africa's third APRM implementation report (SAIR3), noting improvements in reporting quality and honesty compared to previous reports. However, it argues that the APRM remains largely a foreign policy tool with little domestic impact, as the NPoA is not integrated into national policies like the National Development Plan (NDP) and governance challenges identified in 2007 persist.

The document examines the role of 'emerging powers'—specifically China, India, Russia, and Brazil—in the two Sudans following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's 2011 independence. It highlights China as the most dominant actor, particularly in the oil and infrastructure sectors, while India's role is significant but more limited. The analysis argues that the 'South-South cooperation' rhetoric used by these states masks a reality of extractive economic interests that reinforce Sudan's unbalanced political economy. The paper details how the 2011 secession of South Sudan stripped Sudan of 75% of its oil production, leading to economic decline and shifting the strategic focus of Asian investors. It also discusses the impact of conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile on foreign investments and the role of these powers in peacekeeping and arms transfers.

The document presents findings from a 2013 South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) survey of 60 diplomats and experts in Pretoria and Addis Ababa. It argues that while South Africa's commitment to an 'African Agenda' and peace resolution is respected, its overall strategic direction has become 'confusing' and 'obfuscated' under President Zuma. The briefing warns against 'trophy diplomacy'—attempting to project global influence before maturing as a geopolitical entity—and recommends reviewing the Foreign Policy White Paper to better balance relations between Africa, the West, and the emerging South. It specifically suggests that South Africa leverage shared priorities between East and Southern Africa to resolve stalled negotiations for the Tri-Partite Free Trade Area between COMESA, the ECA, and SADC.

The document argues that agricultural cooperatives promote inclusive investment by allowing farmers to maintain control over resources while achieving economies of scale. It highlights that well-organized cooperatives reduce risk for foreign investors and facilitate more efficient contracting. The brief emphasizes that government support should be limited to creating an enabling legal environment and providing technical resources, rather than interfering in internal management, as bottom-up initiatives are generally more successful.

The document promotes agricultural cooperatives as a socially and politically acceptable alternative to 'land grabbing,' allowing farmers to retain control of their resources while accessing markets and finance. It distinguishes between production and service cooperatives and highlights the benefits of collective bargaining and resource sharing. The text emphasizes that while foreign investment can reduce risk and provide capital, government support should be limited to creating a favorable legal environment and providing technical training, rather than direct interference in management.

The document examines the evolution of democratic governance in Africa from the OAU era to the AU era, focusing on the APRM and ACDEG. It argues that while the continent has shifted from 'politics of the bullet' to 'politics of the ballot', significant challenges remain, including 'illiberal democracies' and slow implementation of governance reviews. The author advocates for stronger synergies between the African Governance Architecture (AGA) and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), increased domestic funding for National Programmes of Action (NPoAs), and a balanced role for non-state actors to prevent 'state capture' of these initiatives.

The document examines the critical role of dryland forests in Southern Africa, highlighting their vulnerability to deforestation and climate change. It proposes a 'nexus approach' to overcome the marginalisation of the forestry sector by demonstrating its interdependencies with water, energy, and food security. The author argues that integrated landscape management and multi-sectoral policy coordination can identify win-win solutions for climate mitigation and adaptation, such as agroforestry and payment for watershed services.

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) has officially recognized Ethiopia's Ministry of Environment and Forest as its National Designated Authority (NDA). This designation is a prerequisite for Ethiopia to access GCF resources. Consequently, the GCF has offered to provide readiness and preparatory support, including assistance to strengthen the country's NDA arrangements, upon request.

The research paper outlines a strategy for 'climate compatible development' in African cities, which integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation with urban development. It emphasizes the need to work with informality and inequality, as a large portion of African urban growth occurs in slums. The authors propose a vision for 'adaptive African cities' and provide a practical eight-step model for community-based development, ranging from visioning and vulnerability mapping to the prioritisation of adaptation options and the tracking of outcomes.

The document outlines a framework for transitioning African governance toward the 2030 SDGs, emphasizing the need for National Councils for Sustainable Development (NCSDs) and integrated planning. It identifies current gaps, such as poor policy implementation and a dearth of data, and proposes capacity-building strategies and the establishment of Communities of Practice (CoP) to foster knowledge sharing across the continent.

The document outlines a collaborative project using the SEI nexus toolkit—integrating the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) systems—to analyze trade-offs and synergies in Ethiopia's upper Blue Nile region. Initial findings indicate that while increased irrigation can reduce water for hydropower and the environment, optimized dam operations can meet both energy and environmental goals. Additionally, the study highlights a link between energy transitions and agriculture, noting that shifting away from traditional biomass could improve soil productivity.