Riding the Sudanese Storm: China, India, Russia, Brazil and the Two Sudans

The document examines the role of 'emerging powers'—specifically China, India, Russia, and Brazil—in the two Sudans following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's 2011 independence. It highlights China as the most dominant actor, particularly in the oil and infrastructure sectors, while India's role is significant but more limited. The analysis argues that the 'South-South cooperation' rhetoric used by these states masks a reality of extractive economic interests that reinforce Sudan's unbalanced political economy. The paper details how the 2011 secession of South Sudan stripped Sudan of 75% of its oil production, leading to economic decline and shifting the strategic focus of Asian investors. It also discusses the impact of conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile on foreign investments and the role of these powers in peacekeeping and arms transfers.

• China is the most significant of the emerging powers in the Sudans, with an engagement that has transitioned from an expansive, oil-led phase to a more structural and diversified role where economic activity is heavily politicised.
• The rhetoric of 'South-South co-operation' promoted by China and India is inconsistent with the actual nature of their engagements, which are primarily extractive and infrastructure-based and align with Sudan's violent and unbalanced political economy.
• South Sudan's independence in July 2011 caused a severe economic shock to Sudan, removing 75% of its oil production and causing the economy to decline by nearly 2% in 2011 and over 4% in 2012.
• China's infrastructure projects in Sudan, such as the Merowe Dam, have been linked to significant social and environmental costs, including the displacement of 50,000 people and the destruction of Nubian archaeological heritage.
• India's economic engagement in Sudan was heavily centered on the oil sector via ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), but its wider infrastructure projects, such as the BHEL power plant at Kosti, faced delays due to Sudan's inability to repay loans.
• China has provided significant military support to the government of Sudan, acting as a major arms seller through corporations like NORINCO, despite international efforts to embargo arms in Darfur.
• Russia has maintained a role as an international patron for Khartoum, providing military training and maintenance for Soviet-made hardware and opposing the International Criminal Court's (ICC) indictment of Omar al-Bashir.
• Brazil's engagement with both Sudan and South Sudan has remained largely aspirational and limited in scale, focusing on potential agricultural cooperation and diplomatic recognition.
• South Sudan's oil sector is characterized by extreme dependence on oil and a significant deficit in governance capacity, which has frustrated Chinese attempts to provide large-scale loans.
• The 'two Sudans' remain politically and economically interconnected through the oil sector, as South Sudan relies on Sudan's pipeline infrastructure for exports, leading to the use of oil as a 'weapon of war' by both sides.

APA

Large, D., & Patey, L. (2014). Riding the Sudanese Storm: China, India, Russia, Brazil and the Two Sudans. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Occasional-Paper-197.pdf

Chicago

Large, Daniel, and Luke Patey. Riding the Sudanese Storm: China, India, Russia, Brazil and the Two Sudans. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2014. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Occasional-Paper-197.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Large |first1=Daniel |last2=Patey |first2=Luke |title=Riding the Sudanese Storm: China, India, Russia, Brazil and the Two Sudans |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Occasional-Paper-197.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{large2014riding, author = {Large, Daniel and Patey, Luke}, title = {{Riding the Sudanese Storm: China, India, Russia, Brazil and the Two Sudans}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Occasional-Paper-197.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }