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The document examines the design, selection, implementation, and scaling of Challenge Funds (CFs) specifically for resilience building. It compares GRP's operational experience with a broader literature review of various international CFs, such as the African Enterprise Challenge Fund and the Global Innovation Fund. Key findings emphasize the need for clear definitions of resilience, the value of multi-stage application processes to support local innovators, and the necessity of long-term strategies to move innovations beyond the 'valley of death' toward sustainable scale. The report concludes with specific recommendations for future resilience-focused challenges, highlighting the importance of adaptive management and robust, long-term impact evaluations.

The report evaluates ten Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) Round 1 projects, which supported over 5 million people. Key findings highlight the effectiveness of 'layering' interventions, participatory design, and close government partnerships in increasing resilience. Successes include the deployment of early warning systems reaching 1.2 million people in Uganda, the empowerment of urban slum women in South Asia, and the implementation of road water harvesting benefiting 3 million people in Ethiopia. The synthesis emphasizes that combining traditional tools like microcredit with innovative digital technology and inclusive social strategies creates sustainable, transformational change.

The report identifies five key intervention areas for building resilience: nature-based solutions, empowering marginalized groups, information and technology, inclusive financial services, and low-cost infrastructure. It argues that effective resilience programming must be systemic by design, utilize layered and linked interventions, create agile networks, promote equity and inclusion, and prioritize iterative learning and scaling. Evidence from GRP's USAID and Z Zurich Foundation challenges, as well as 42 partner programs, demonstrates that these approaches can protect development gains and improve well-being in the face of climate and economic shocks.

The document analyzes 44 resilience programs to determine which design elements contribute to success in helping vulnerable populations persist, adapt, and transform in the face of shocks. Key findings highlight the importance of community-led vulnerability assessments, the role of savings as a critical resilience buffer, and the necessity of integrating climate risk interventions into local governance and market systems.

The document defines anti-agricultural bias as a condition where policies and market failures disadvantage farmers relative to other economic sectors. It details four primary economic indicators for measuring this bias: the Nominal Rate of Protection, the Nominal Rate of Assistance, the Relative Rate of Assistance, and the Effective Rate of Protection. The report argues that while historical bias was driven by explicit taxes on agriculture and subsidies for industry, contemporary bias in non-transformed economies often stems from market failures, such as poor infrastructure and unbalanced market power. Through case studies of 12 countries, the report demonstrates that bias is often heterogeneous across different crops; for example, rice often benefits from protection via regional tariffs, while cash crops like tea or cashew nuts are frequently taxed. Specific country analyses reveal that in nations like Ethiopia and Zambia, high anti-agricultural bias is driven by low output prices and export bans, despite the presence of agricultural import tariffs.

The briefing introduces a policy taxonomy for agricultural transformation that categorizes interventions based on their target: agricultural markets, the rural economy, the macroeconomy, or institutions. It emphasizes the concept of 'anti-agricultural bias'—where policies favor other sectors like industry over agriculture—and argues that removing this bias is a critical precondition for successful agricultural transformation, citing Brazil and Vietnam as positive examples and Ethiopia, Malawi, Togo, and Uganda as countries where such bias persists.

The report analyzes agricultural transformation across 117 countries from 1970 to 2015, identifying six phases of transformation and five structural contexts based on land fertility, availability, and population dynamics. It argues that successful transformation requires a tailored mix of 'push' strategies (increasing agricultural productivity) or 'pull' strategies (growing non-agricultural sectors), depending on a country's endowments. Key drivers of success include removing 'anti-agricultural bias' in price policies, strategic public investment in R&D and extension services, and critical institutional reforms such as land redistribution. The report provides specific policy recommendations for 13 focus countries in Africa and Asia, matching them with historically successful 'analogue' countries based on their 2015 structural contexts.

The report assesses Ethiopia's development path to 2040, highlighting a tension between rapid GDP growth and lagging human development indicators. While the country has seen significant improvements in health and agricultural yields, it faces critical bottlenecks in primary education completion, basic infrastructure (WASH), and gender equality. The analysis warns that political liberalisation may create short-term instability due to ethnic factionalism and an 'anocratic' regime type. The report contrasts a positive 'Abiynomics' scenario, driven by targeted investments in human capital and governance, with a 'Dark Days' scenario characterized by political regression and economic decline.

The report examines South Africa's historical and recent involvement in Burundi, highlighting a transition from significant military and diplomatic leadership during the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement to a more peripheral role following Burundi's 2015 political crisis. While South Africa has provided tangible support in electoral capacity building and civil service training, the report finds that bilateral agreements have been implemented in a fragmented manner. It emphasizes the value of 'citizen diplomacy' through civil society and academic exchanges, particularly in supporting Burundi's Truth and Reconciliation Commission. The authors argue that South Africa should leverage its remaining political capital and technical expertise through a holistic strategy that navigates complex regional dynamics involving the East African Community (EAC) and the International Conference for the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR).

The document examines how 'migration' and 'development' are defined and measured in quantitative research, highlighting a gap in evidence regarding migration aspirations, failed attempts, and involuntary immobility. It discusses the challenges of establishing causal links due to endogeneity—specifically reverse causality, self-selection, and omitted variables—and evaluates experimental and non-experimental methods to address these biases. The paper advocates for a holistic, multi-dimensional approach to development that moves beyond economic metrics to include social, institutional, and environmental outcomes.

The document assesses the multifaceted threats climate change poses to global food security, highlighting that while some high-latitude regions may see productivity gains, the global South—especially sub-Saharan Africa—faces severe risks of yield losses and increased hunger. It argues for a systemic approach to adaptation, moving beyond autonomous adjustments to planned strategies. Key priorities include increasing public investment in agricultural research, adopting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), expanding irrigation, and improving the resilience of food value chains. The authors emphasize that adaptation must be balanced with greenhouse gas mitigation and social equity, particularly regarding gender and youth in agriculture.

The document argues that agroecology—combining science, practice, and social movements—provides a framework for transforming food systems to be more climate-resilient. It details how applying ecological principles (such as biodiversity and soil health) at various scales (field, farm, landscape, and food system) can mitigate climate risks. The paper provides evidence from Africa, India, and Europe, highlighting specific practices like agroforestry and Zero Budget Natural Farming. It concludes that scaling these approaches requires addressing market failures, reforming perverse policies, and shifting from a top-down technology transfer model to a co-creation of knowledge approach.

The paper examines how social protection instruments—specifically cash transfers and public works programs—can be leveraged to build climate resilience. It identifies a substantial overlap between social protection and climate adaptation, noting that both target the most vulnerable. The authors propose three strategic shifts: enhancing the effectiveness of existing systems, integrating climate risk management (such as forecast-based early action), and layering social protection with other risk management tools like insurance. The document highlights that while social protection strongly supports absorptive and adaptive resilience, more work is needed to achieve transformative resilience.

The paper examines the risks climate change poses to rural livelihoods in Asia, Africa, and Central America, noting that current adaptation efforts are insufficient. It advocates for a systemic transformation involving policy reform, digital agriculture, innovative finance, and the scaling of climate-resilient technologies. The authors propose five distinct pathways for adaptation—ranging from market integration and farming system shifts to exiting agriculture—tailored to different household types such as those 'stepping up', 'stepping out', 'hanging in', or those who are 'food insecure'.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The report examines the actions of 14 African countries at the UN Human Rights Council in 2017. It finds that the African Group is no longer a unified voting bloc, with significant divergence in how members approach human rights. Botswana, Ghana, and Rwanda are identified as the strongest defenders of international human rights among the group, while Burundi, Egypt, and Nigeria are characterized as the most antagonistic. The analysis highlights a recurring tension between the principle of national sovereignty and the universality of human rights, particularly regarding 'item 4' resolutions that mandate investigations into specific countries without their consent.

The document examines the synergies and challenges of aligning the NAP and NDC processes under the Paris Agreement. It argues that because the NDC provides high-level direction and the NAP elaborates implementation strategies, they are complementary tools. Based on dialogues with 16 countries and workshops in Grenada and Peru, the brief identifies that most countries currently have informal alignment and suggests using the 2020 NDC update cycle to integrate NAP results, improve data quality, and enhance adaptation goals.

The document provides a comparative overview of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes in multiple countries, detailing their specific strategic approaches, priority sectors, and implementation milestones. It emphasizes the integration of climate adaptation into national development planning, the importance of cross-sectoral coordination, and the mobilization of climate finance to build resilience against diverse hazards such as sea-level rise, droughts, and extreme weather events.

The document argues that aligning NDCs and NAP processes provides a feasible starting point for countries to improve the coherence and efficiency of their climate policies. While NDCs offer high-level guidance, NAPs provide the technical strategies for implementation. The briefing identifies a continuum of alignment—ranging from informal to systematic—and highlights that the 2020 NDC update cycle presents a critical opportunity for countries to use NAP results to enhance the quality and ambition of their adaptation goals. It further suggests that this alignment can serve as a foundation for broader integration with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The paper evaluates the 'Kagame Reforms' of the African Union (AU), which aim to address bureaucratic inefficiency, funding shortages, and poor implementation of resolutions. While some structural changes have been adopted—such as reducing the number of AU commissioners and reforming summit schedules—the paper highlights significant resistance from member states, particularly within SADC and South Africa, regarding the 'Kaberuka Plan' for self-financing via an export levy. The authors argue that the long-term success of these reforms depends on overcoming national self-interest and surviving the transition of the AU presidency beyond 2019.