Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change

The paper examines the risks climate change poses to rural livelihoods in Asia, Africa, and Central America, noting that current adaptation efforts are insufficient. It advocates for a systemic transformation involving policy reform, digital agriculture, innovative finance, and the scaling of climate-resilient technologies. The authors propose five distinct pathways for adaptation—ranging from market integration and farming system shifts to exiting agriculture—tailored to different household types such as those 'stepping up', 'stepping out', 'hanging in', or those who are 'food insecure'.

• The authors identify four distinct rural household types based on their livelihood aspirations and strategies: 'stepping up' (investing in assets to expand scale/intensity), 'stepping out' (accumulating assets to switch to non-agricultural activities), 'hanging in' (focusing on subsistence to protect current wealth from shocks), and 'food insecure' (chronically food-insecure or landless).
• A proposed framework for transformational change consists of six synergistic elements: changing the policy and institutional environment, scaling climate-resilient practices and technologies, innovating financial models to leverage private investment, reshaping supply chains and food retail, implementing digital agriculture, and empowering marginalized groups including women and youth.
• The document outlines five differentiated adaptation pathways: 1) increasing market integration or consolidating land to 'step up'; 2) making climate-informed shifts in farming systems to 'step up'; 3) transitioning from landless status to small-scale entrepreneurship; 4) utilizing climate-informed social safety nets and nature-based solutions for those least integrated into markets; and 5) reducing or exiting agriculture in the livelihood portfolio.
• Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa remains low due to limited irrigation, degraded soils, and variable rainfall, with a high prevalence of undernutrition affecting 21% of the population (256 million people).
• Digitalization has the potential to significantly increase rural incomes; if 275-350 million farms gain access to mobile-based services by 2030, additional income could range from USD 100-200 billion through production increases and avoided losses.
• The 'big three' crops (rice, maize, and wheat) account for 46% of global cropped area and 40% of calorie intake, but there is a need for more R&D into 'orphan' substitution crops such as cassava, millet, and sorghum to enhance adaptation.
• Gender inequalities are entrenched in African small-scale systems, where women often achieve 20-30% lower agricultural productivity than men due to smaller plots and lower resource endowments; however, providing women equal access to resources could increase their yields by 20-30%.
• Climate-induced agricultural distress in India has contributed to a 'feminization of agrarian distress', where male out-migration increases the workload and burden on women as cultivators and labourers.
• Global crop yield growth rates are currently lagging at 1.2% per year, falling short of the 1.8% per year average required to meet future food demands.

APA

Thornton, P., Loboguerrero, A., Campbell, B., Kavikumar, K., Mercado, L., & Shackleton, S. (2019). Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/RuralLivelihoodsFoodSecurityRuralTransformation_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf

Chicago

Thornton, PK, AM Loboguerrero, BM Campbell, KS Kavikumar, L Mercado, and S Shackleton. Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change. World Resources Institute, 2019. https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/RuralLivelihoodsFoodSecurityRuralTransformation_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Thornton |first1=PK |last2=Loboguerrero |first2=AM |last3=Campbell |first3=BM |last4=Kavikumar |first4=KS |last5=Mercado |first5=L |last6=Shackleton |first6=S |title=Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=2 August 2019 |url=https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/RuralLivelihoodsFoodSecurityRuralTransformation_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thornton2019rural, author = {Thornton, PK and Loboguerrero, AM and Campbell, BM and Kavikumar, KS and Mercado, L and Shackleton, S}, title = {{Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/RuralLivelihoodsFoodSecurityRuralTransformation_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }