Search Climate Insights Directory

The report argues that the IMF's 'climate turn' is contradictory, as its conventional lending programmes (Upper Credit Tranche) often prioritize fiscal consolidation and extractive industries, undermining the climate goals of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Through case studies in Ecuador, Egypt, the DRC, Tanzania, and Pakistan, the document demonstrates how IMF-mandated expenditure compression and reliance on fossil fuel exports create structural climate vulnerabilities. Key findings indicate that while the IMF has improved its climate analysis, this does not translate into programme design, which continues to favor private investment and cost recovery over the public investment needed for a just transition.

Global Witness reports that Mondelez has shifted from supporting the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to actively lobbying for its weakening and delay. The company has engaged with US Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder, joined the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU, and targeted conservative MEPs and government officials in France, Germany, Ireland, and Luxembourg. This lobbying occurs despite Mondelez's lack of transparency regarding its deforestation-free cocoa supply and its links to forest destruction in West Africa.

The document asserts that climate change is a systemic financial risk that threatens the global economy and the living conditions of beneficiaries, thereby making climate action an integral part of an asset owner's fiduciary duty. It advocates for a 'systemic approach' that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term gains, urging asset owners to halt capital allocation to fossil fuel expansion, engage aggressively with portfolio companies, influence asset managers, and advocate for ambitious public policies. The report highlights that current risk models often underestimate the potential for catastrophic economic losses, which could reach 50% of global GDP by the end of the century.

Global Witness warns that the global push for electrification, highlighted by priorities for COP31 and plans in the EU and China, faces a critical bottleneck due to copper shortages. The organization identifies declining copper grades, supply chain disruptions of sulphuric acid (essential for processing), and export bans on concentrates in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania as primary threats. To prevent high-income countries from monopolizing resources, Global Witness proposes a UN-led multi-decade plan to ensure equitable access to minerals and prioritize climate goals over military or data center applications.

The document examines the nexus between climate change and local conflict in the Central African Republic, highlighting how environmental stressors like drought and flooding exacerbate tensions over land and water. Based on consultations in Damara and Landja-Mboko, it argues that current adaptation plans lack systematic integration of the climate-conflict link. It provides detailed recommendations for government ministries, local authorities, and the private sector to promote peace-sensitive adaptation, including securing transhumance corridors, improving land tenure, and diversifying livelihoods for vulnerable groups.

The paper outlines a comprehensive framework to prevent conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) by integrating survivor-centric and trauma-informed approaches. It advocates for a multisectoral strategy that spans primary prevention (stopping occurrence), secondary prevention (preventing escalation), and tertiary prevention (addressing long-term harm and accountability). The author emphasizes the need for intersectional analysis, local community engagement, and the alignment of policies with the lived realities of survivors across diverse identities.

The 2026 Energy Progress Report reveals that the world is off track for all SDG7 targets by 2030. While Asia has made significant strides in electricity and clean cooking access, Africa's progress is stagnating or regressing due to a 'population trap' where demographic growth outpaces new connections. Renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements are slowing, with global progress heavily dependent on a small number of high-consuming economies. The report calls for a massive scale-up in finance and targeted infrastructure investments to prevent millions from remaining without basic energy services.

The report finds that while progress continues, momentum is fading across all SDG7 indicators. Electricity and clean cooking deficits are increasingly concentrated in Africa, where population growth often offsets gains in access. Renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements are too slow to meet 2030 targets, with global progress heavily dependent on a small number of high-consuming economies and significant investment gaps in developing nations.

The report evaluates Uganda's path toward middle-income status by 2040, analyzing scenarios across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance. It finds that while the 'Current Path' falls short of Vision 2040 targets, a combined implementation of strategic interventions could lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty and raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040, reaching the US$9,500 target by 2045. Key drivers for growth include large-scale infrastructure and leapfrogging, which is identified as having the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. However, these gains are accompanied by a projected 30% increase in carbon emissions above the Current Path, primarily driven by manufacturing and governance improvements.

Tanzania is a lower-middle-income country in East Africa characterized by steady GDP growth but significant gaps in human development and political stability. While the economy has grown at an average of 6% annually, the country faces persistent poverty and environmental challenges such as deforestation and soil erosion. Politically, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) maintains dominance, though the 2025 general elections were marked by irregularities, violence, and the suppression of opposition parties, leading to international condemnation and a deepening governance crisis.

The document outlines Uganda's transition to multiparty democracy and its current governance structure. It details the country's natural resource wealth, specifically the discovery of oil reserves on Lake Albert and the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), while noting environmental opposition from the European Union Parliament. The text also traces Uganda's economic planning from early independence through to Vision 2040 and the current Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), which focuses on resource-led industrialisation to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2040.

The document argues that while substantive democracy correlates with long-term economic growth and better governance, its impact in low-income African countries is limited because democracy there is often merely procedural. It suggests that in fragile or poor settings, the nature of the governing elite is more critical for development than the institutional setting, and that competitive politics in post-conflict states can potentially reopen ethnic or sectarian conflicts.

The document outlines Rwanda's transition from a low-income country to its aspirations for high-income status by 2050. It details the 'Vision 2050' strategic plan, which focuses on human development, competitiveness, agriculture, urbanisation, and state institutions. While Rwanda has seen significant GDP growth—averaging 7.2% from 2009 to 2019—it faces structural challenges including high inflation, rising external debt, and a large informal sector. The report also notes the role of the Rwanda Energy Group and the use of Lake Kivu for biogas extraction to meet energy needs.

The document outlines a hypothetical 'Governance scenario' for Africa, defined by reductions in state failure and corruption, and improvements in democracy and gender empowerment. It argues that such improvements would lead to a significantly larger African economy by 2043, with substantial gains in GDP per capita and a reduction of 45.5 million people living in extreme poverty. The analysis highlights the role of digital technology in implementing efficient cash grant programs as a tool for inclusion, citing Egypt's Takaful and Karama program as an example.

The report examines government capacity in Africa, primarily through the lens of revenue mobilization and the tax-to-GDP ratio. It notes that while Africa's average tax-to-GDP ratio is around 15.6% to 16.5%, this remains lower than in Asia, Latin America, and OECD countries. The document highlights that low-income and larger African countries, such as Nigeria and the DR Congo, struggle more with resource mobilization and are often characterized by neo-patrimonialism and corruption, which undermine the effective use of revenues. However, it suggests that significant unmet tax potential remains, particularly in low-income countries, which could be unlocked through appropriate policies to improve public finances and reduce borrowing.

The document outlines South Sudan's challenges since its 2011 independence, including persistent political instability, a severe humanitarian crisis, and extreme economic dependence on oil. It highlights the impact of climate variability on agriculture and the country's efforts toward regional integration through the East African Community and the African Union.

This fact sheet from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute describes the role of cobalt as a critical mineral for the clean energy transition, detailing its applications in lithium-ion batteries, global distribution of reserves and production, and the significant human rights and environmental impacts associated with its extraction, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The report analyses Africa's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it fails to meet Agenda 2063 targets, leaving 19.1% of the population in extreme poverty. The Combined scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms in governance, trade (AfCFTA), education, and infrastructure could raise GDP (MER) to US$8.87 trillion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040, and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%. Key findings highlight the critical role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance as the most transformative levers for income growth and poverty reduction. The report also details a significant energy gap, where demand is projected to outpace production by 2043 despite massive solar potential, and a health transition marked by a 'double burden' of persisting communicable diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases.

As of March 31, 2026, the GCF has total pledged amounts of USD 30.0 billion, with USD 24.0 billion in committed funding. The Fund's accredited entity network has grown to 168 entities, with a strong emphasis on Direct Access Entities (DAEs). The portfolio shows a shift toward adaptation, which now represents 59% of funding in grant equivalent terms. The GCF is managing a pipeline of 139 concept notes and 51 funding proposals. However, several projects face implementation challenges, including the Mali solar rural electrification project, which is awaiting formal termination following the government's decision to cancel co-financing.

The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.