Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures

The report examines government capacity in Africa, primarily through the lens of revenue mobilization and the tax-to-GDP ratio. It notes that while Africa's average tax-to-GDP ratio is around 15.6% to 16.5%, this remains lower than in Asia, Latin America, and OECD countries. The document highlights that low-income and larger African countries, such as Nigeria and the DR Congo, struggle more with resource mobilization and are often characterized by neo-patrimonialism and corruption, which undermine the effective use of revenues. However, it suggests that significant unmet tax potential remains, particularly in low-income countries, which could be unlocked through appropriate policies to improve public finances and reduce borrowing.

• Government capacity in Africa is indicated by low tax-to-GDP ratios compared to other global regions. The unweighted average for 33 African countries with OECD data in 2021 was 15.6%, which is lower than the averages for Asian and Pacific economies (19.8%), Latin America and the Caribbean (21.7%), and the OECD (34.1%).
• Revenue mobilization performance varies across the continent, with larger countries like Nigeria and the DR Congo performing poorly, resulting in limited resources for social services, infrastructure, and education.
• Corruption and neo-patrimonialism undermine the effective use of government revenues, particularly in larger African states where patrons may use state resources to secure support.
• There is significant unmet tax potential in African countries, especially those with low incomes, suggesting that domestic revenue could be increased through appropriate policies to create fiscal space and reduce borrowing.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }