Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures

This research paper examines government capacity in Africa, primarily through the lens of tax-to-GDP ratios and the effective use of revenues. It highlights that African countries generally exhibit lower government capacity compared to other global regions, with significant unmet tax potential and challenges related to corruption and neo-patrimonialism, particularly in larger states.

• Government capacity is measured by the mobilisation and use of revenues, with a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% considered a rough minimum for countries to sufficiently fund infrastructure, education, and health. In 2021, the unweighted average tax-to-GDP ratio for 33 African countries with available OECD data was 15.6%, showing no change from 2020. This average is lower than that of the OECD (34.1%), Latin America and the Caribbean (21.7%), and Asian and Pacific economies (19.8%).
• African countries generally operate below their tax potential, which is the maximum amount a country can collect based on its institutions and economic structure. An IMF study indicates that increasing domestic revenue through appropriate policies is achievable, especially in low-income countries, which would reduce the need for new borrowing and create fiscal space for growth-reviving spending.
• The effective use of government resources is hindered by corruption and neo-patrimonialism, where state resources are used by patrons to buy support. This is particularly evident in larger African countries, such as Nigeria and the DR Congo, which perform poorly in revenue mobilisation and struggle more with stability and development than smaller countries.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa Governance Futures: Thematic Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=04-government-capacity}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }