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The document examines the risks posed to Africa by the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, particularly in the realms of technology, trade, and global supply chains. It argues that Africa is institutionally underprepared for these tensions due to governance deficiencies and its marginal global position, while emphasizing the need for African countries to project agency to secure optimal outcomes amidst a shifting global power structure.

The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.

The 2023 state of global environmental governance was characterized by a tension between significant multilateral achievements and deepening geopolitical fractures. While the world saw the adoption of the BBNJ treaty and the Global Framework on Chemicals, progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remains dire, with only 15% of targets on track. Climate action reached a milestone with the first Global Stocktake (GST) in Dubai, calling for a transition away from fossil fuels, though critics noted the absence of a full phase-out. Geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have hindered scientific collaboration in the Arctic and increased the use of voting over consensus in treaty negotiations. Financial gaps remain a critical barrier, with calls for a New Global Financing Pact to address the needs of the Global South.

The report identifies three primary categories of climate security vulnerabilities for China: direct risks to military and critical infrastructure, compounding risks to internal political stability, and external risks that amplify regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It notes that while China is investing heavily in hard infrastructure adaptation and disaster response, political incentives and a lack of societal trust may undermine these efforts. The document recommends that the US government improve its predictive data on China's physical risks, use forecasting tools like wargaming, and prioritize climate resilience funding for Indo-Pacific allies to counter Chinese influence.

The report examines how the rise of the Indo-Pacific strategic framework and intensifying competition between traditional powers (US, UK, France) and emerging powers (China, India) affect African maritime security and development. It highlights the critical importance of Indian Ocean trade routes, the proliferation of foreign military bases in the region, and the risk of African states being drawn into proxy wars. The author emphasizes that while great power competition is a long-term risk, immediate threats include piracy, illegal fishing, and climate change. The paper recommends that African states and the African Union develop a unified conception of their maritime interests and leverage multilateral organizations to protect their sovereignty and blue economy goals.

The document examines Russia's increasing diplomatic and military push into Africa, highlighted by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's July 2022 visits to Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia. It notes that while Russia was the largest arms supplier to Africa in 2021 (44% of imports) and a critical wheat provider, African states remain divided in their response to the invasion of Ukraine, with 48% abstaining from a UN General Assembly resolution. The author contends that Africa's collective GDP of $2.7 trillion in 2021 exceeds Russia's $1.7 trillion, suggesting that a unified approach via the African Union's Partnership Management and Coordination Division and the African Continental Free Trade Area would increase the continent's agency and bargaining power.

The author argues that EU-Africa relations are characterized by a historical imbalance and a lack of mutual respect, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. The document highlights how the EU's shift toward geopolitics and the creation of the European Peace Facility (EPF) may undermine the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) by bypassing the AU. It notes that African nations are adopting a pragmatic approach to geopolitical tensions, seeking diverse security partnerships with countries like China, Russia, and the USA to fill funding gaps and reduce dependence on the EU.

The Horn of Africa is characterized by chronic instability, including inter-state wars over territorial disputes and internal ethnic conflicts, which have led to massive displacement. The region's geostrategic importance has attracted significant foreign military presence and economic investment, particularly from Gulf states and Turkey, though these external interests often exacerbate regional rivalries and hinder economic integration.

The Mauritius–China Free Trade Agreement (MCFTA), effective January 1, 2021, is analyzed as a likely geopolitical tool rather than an economic driver, given the extreme trade imbalance between the two nations. The authors argue that Mauritius lacks the capacity to penetrate the Chinese market, and the agreement may exacerbate its trade deficit. While the MCFTA is China's first FTA with an African nation, the paper suggests it serves as a strategic base for China to influence the broader African market and the AfCFTA, while potentially acting as a 'laboratory' for future continental engagements.

The document analyzes how climate change is driving fish stocks toward the poles, creating new zones of contention for political and commercial control in the Arctic. It highlights historical conflicts over access and stock health, the fragility of governance bodies like the Arctic Council following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the increasing military presence in the region. The author argues for a combination of climate-smart fisheries solutions, enhanced maritime domain awareness, and multilateral cooperation to mitigate the risk of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and geopolitical escalation.

The document analyzes the resurgent roles of China and Russia in Africa since 2000. China's influence is primarily economic, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and long-term infrastructure investments, while Russia's approach is more opportunistic, focusing on mining, arms exports, and the deployment of private military contractors in fragile states. While the two powers coordinate on challenging Western norms and supporting non-interference in the UN Security Council, they maintain a 'competitive partnership' characterized by limited strategic coordination in security and economics, and occasional competition for commercial contracts in countries like Zimbabwe.

The report analyzes the security implications of rapid warming in the Arctic, focusing on the destabilizing effects of sea ice loss and permafrost thaw. It argues that these environmental changes, combined with an influx of commercial shipping and resource extraction, exacerbate tensions between major powers like Russia, the US, and China. The document highlights specific risks, including the degradation of military infrastructure in Alaska, the potential release of ancient pathogens, and the increased likelihood of military accidents in a region with limited security-focused diplomatic forums.

The 2018 peace agreement and subsequent trilateral alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have resolved historical conflicts but introduced new instabilities. The alliance has exacerbated internal tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia, specifically fueling the conflict in Tigray and tensions in Jubaland. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of this bloc has created distrust among other regional actors like Kenya and Djibouti and threatens to undermine the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by duplicating its integration efforts.

The document analyzes the deadlock in Syria's reconstruction, focusing on the impact of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the competing motivations of the US, Russia, and Iran. While the Assad regime has largely won the military conflict, it faces economic collapse and immense reconstruction costs. The US uses sanctions and a limited military presence in eastern Syria as leverage to force a UN-led political solution, while Russia and Iran seek to secure their strategic footprints in the Middle East. The authors suggest that US sanctions may act as a deterrent to reconstruction, potentially making the US a 'spoiler' in the process, while China's growing influence in the region may further dilute the efficacy of unilateral US pressure.

China's engagement in Iraq and Syria is primarily driven by economic logic and the Belt and Road Initiative, though it increasingly faces security risks from terrorism and political instability. In Iraq, China has become a top trading partner with a heavy focus on oil, while in Syria, it provides political cover for the Assad regime and explores limited reconstruction opportunities. The document argues that China lacks a unified regional strategy, instead employing a cautious, pragmatic, and piecemeal approach that balances economic opportunism with a traditional policy of non-interference, though the need to protect assets may eventually push Beijing toward more active counter-terrorism efforts.

The document argues that the post-WWII multilateral order is fragmenting, leaving Europe vulnerable to the influence of China and Russia and the unpredictability of US policy. The author proposes a 'networked foreign policy' and 'European strategic sovereignty' to reduce dependencies and preserve EU values. This approach emphasizes the need for Europe to act as a unified geopolitical player, investing in its own technological capabilities (such as 5G and semiconductors) and safeguarding public goods like health and climate protection. The author specifically calls for the EU to reduce reliance on foreign medical supplies and to resist the dominance of US and Chinese tech giants through stronger regulation and a pro-European anti-trust policy.

The author examines the EU's transition to renewable energy as a geopolitical shift that offers benefits like reduced import dependence and increased 'soft power', but introduces risks such as industrial rivalry with China and the US, and internal disparities between Western and Eastern Europe. The text argues that the EU currently lacks a clear technical vision for its future integrated energy system, which could lead to inefficient investments and vulnerability to external 'divide and conquer' tactics. It suggests that the EU must combine energy goals with industrial policy and infrastructure standards to maintain global competitiveness, while utilizing mechanisms like the Just Transition Fund to mitigate internal socio-economic frictions.

The author contends that the European Green Deal should not be treated as a separate environmental policy but as a geopolitical tool. By diversifying its economy and leading in clean technologies, the EU can reduce its vulnerability to pressure from the US and China and decrease its reliance on fossil fuel imports from authoritarian regimes. The text emphasizes that the transition must also address the stability of oil-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa and prevent internal EU divisions between East and West to avoid external interference.

The author argues that Russia has shifted from viewing the EU as a model for modernisation to seeing it as a strategic challenger to its neo-imperialist vision. To counter Western influence and the 'eastward march' of Europe, the Kremlin employs a strategy of 'managing instability' through disinformation, cyberattacks, and the support of far-right political parties in Europe. While Russia seeks bilateral rapprochement with key powers like Germany and France to bypass sanctions and isolate Eastern European 'Russosceptic' countries, the author contends that Moscow's strategic goals remain unfulfilled and that it will continue to exploit Western electoral cycles to foment populism.

The author argues that EU enlargement in the Western Balkans has stalled due to a 'dull reality' where local leaders benefit from the status quo and the EU lacks the political will or understanding to enforce genuine rule of law. The Berlin Process is critiqued as a 'plan B' that prioritised technical compliance over substantive reform. The document highlights specific failures in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania, while warning that an economic and strategic vacuum is being filled by China, Russia, Turkey, and the USA. It further expresses concern over Croatia's 2020 EU presidency given its nationalist tendencies and strained relations with neighbours.