The Great Game is afloat: Africa and Indian Ocean geopolitics

The report examines how the rise of the Indo-Pacific strategic framework and intensifying competition between traditional powers (US, UK, France) and emerging powers (China, India) affect African maritime security and development. It highlights the critical importance of Indian Ocean trade routes, the proliferation of foreign military bases in the region, and the risk of African states being drawn into proxy wars. The author emphasizes that while great power competition is a long-term risk, immediate threats include piracy, illegal fishing, and climate change. The paper recommends that African states and the African Union develop a unified conception of their maritime interests and leverage multilateral organizations to protect their sovereignty and blue economy goals.

• The Indian Ocean is a critical global economic artery, with approximately 80% of maritime oil shipments, half of the world's container traffic, and a third of its bulk cargo crossing the region.
• Global powers are increasing their presence in the Indo-Pacific, but many neglect to align their strategies with the development needs of African littoral states.
• The proliferation of foreign military bases in the Western Indian Ocean—including those from China, the US, France, Japan, Italy, Germany, Spain, Turkey, the UAE, and Russia—increases the potential for friction and conflict between these states.
• African states risk becoming subjects of proxy wars as alliances between traditional powers and emerging powers like China and India harden.
• While geopolitical competition is a significant long-term concern, the most immediate security threats to African territorial waters are non-state actors and non-traditional threats, such as piracy, drug smuggling, and human trafficking, which may be worsened by climate change.
• There is a critical need for deep-water port infrastructure to accommodate 'mega-ships' (vessels of 18,000 TEU or more), and control of such ports provides a significant strategic and trade advantage.
• The inability of African states to provide their own maritime security, as seen in the slow SADC response to the crisis in Cabo Delgado, increases the likelihood of reliance on foreign militaries and private security companies.

APA

Jernberg, L. (2022). The Great Game is afloat: Africa and Indian Ocean geopolitics. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AR-40.pdf

Chicago

Jernberg, Leaza. The Great Game is afloat: Africa and Indian Ocean geopolitics. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AR-40.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jernberg |first1=Leaza |title=The Great Game is afloat: Africa and Indian Ocean geopolitics |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2022 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AR-40.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jernberg2022great, author = {Jernberg, Leaza}, title = {{The Great Game is afloat: Africa and Indian Ocean geopolitics}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AR-40.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }