DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040

This background report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, political, and geostrategic context of the Horn of Africa. It details the region's prevalence of inter-state and intra-state conflicts, the impact of forced displacement, and the significant influence of foreign military and economic interests from global powers and Gulf states on regional stability and development.

• The Horn of Africa is characterized by a high frequency of conflict, including more inter-state wars than any other African region. Notable conflicts include the Ethiopia-Somalia wars (197778 and 20062009), the Ethiopia-Eritrea war (19982000), and the Eritrea-Djibouti conflict in 2008, many of which stemmed from territorial and border disputes.
• The region is a major global source of refugees and internally displaced persons due to war, famine, governance failures, and environmental factors like droughts. Approximately 8.5 million forcibly displaced people are currently in the Horn of Africa, comprising over six million internally displaced people and around 2.5 million refugees and asylum seekers.
• Djibouti serves as a critical geostrategic hub due to its location near the Red Sea and Suez Canal, hosting military bases from the United States, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain. The country's economy relies heavily on the rents associated with these bases.
• Turkey has significantly expanded its presence in the region since 2011, using Somalia as an entry point. This engagement includes the establishment of its largest overseas military facility in Mogadishu and a massive increase in trade with Ethiopia, which grew from US$40 million in 2003 to approximately US$4 billion in 2013.
• Arab Gulf states have exerted increasing influence through financial investments and official development assistance (ODA), totaling approximately US$13 billion in investments and US$6.6 billion in ODA between 2000 and 2017. However, geopolitical rivalries between these states, such as the UAE versus Qatar and Turkey, have contributed to instability in Somalia.
• External involvement by foreign powers often leads to the instrumentalization of Horn countries against one another, which undermines regional economic integration and collective security. Local governments are frequently pressured to align with competing geopolitical interests, such as the rivalry between Gulf Arabs and Iran.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2022). DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=02-background

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=02-background.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=02-background |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2022development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=02-background}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }