Temperatures & Tensions Rise

The report analyzes the security implications of rapid warming in the Arctic, focusing on the destabilizing effects of sea ice loss and permafrost thaw. It argues that these environmental changes, combined with an influx of commercial shipping and resource extraction, exacerbate tensions between major powers like Russia, the US, and China. The document highlights specific risks, including the degradation of military infrastructure in Alaska, the potential release of ancient pathogens, and the increased likelihood of military accidents in a region with limited security-focused diplomatic forums.

• Arctic temperatures are rising significantly faster than the global average, with the most recent meteorological year (October 2019 - September 2020) being the second warmest on record, including Siberian winter temperatures 3-5°C above average.
• Sea ice loss is accelerating, with the potential for the Arctic to be ice-free during the Northern Hemisphere's summer within ten to fifteen years. Projections for 2021-2050 suggest a minimum sea ice extent of less than 20,000 km, representing a reduction of over 99% compared to the 1981-2010 average.
• Permafrost degradation threatens critical infrastructure, particularly in Alaska where roughly half the state is underlain by permafrost. This has led the Department of Defense to request over $1 billion for the repair and retrofitting of three Alaskan bases over the last five years.
• Thawing permafrost creates health security risks by potentially releasing ancient pathogens, as evidenced by recent anthrax outbreaks and the release of amoeba-infecting viruses in Siberia.
• Increased navigability is driving a surge in commercial activity, with shipping increasing by 25% between 2013 and 2019. This is coupled with the pursuit of undiscovered resources, as the region is estimated to hold 30% of the world's undiscovered recoverable gas and 13% of its undiscovered oil reserves.
• Military tensions are escalating as Russia expands its presence and NATO increases joint training. The risk of accidents is heightened by the use of nuclear-powered assets, such as Russian ice-breakers and the 2019 nuclear-powered cruise missile test accident in Nyonoksa.
• There is a critical lack of institutional frameworks to manage Arctic security risks, as the Arctic Council explicitly forbids the discussion of security matters.

APA

Guy, K., Naegele, A., Baillargeon, N., Holland, M., & Schwalm, C. (2021). Temperatures & Tensions Rise. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Security-and-Climate-Risk-in-the-Arctic_Tensions-and-Temperatures-Rise_2021_06_21.pdf

Chicago

Guy, Kate, Alexandra Naegele, Natalie Baillargeon, Madeleine Holland, and Christopher Schwalm. Temperatures & Tensions Rise. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Security-and-Climate-Risk-in-the-Arctic_Tensions-and-Temperatures-Rise_2021_06_21.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Guy |first1=Kate |last2=Naegele |first2=Alexandra |last3=Baillargeon |first3=Natalie |last4=Holland |first4=Madeleine |last5=Schwalm |first5=Christopher |title=Temperatures & Tensions Rise |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=June 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Security-and-Climate-Risk-in-the-Arctic_Tensions-and-Temperatures-Rise_2021_06_21.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{guy2021temperatures, author = {Guy, Kate and Naegele, Alexandra and Baillargeon, Natalie and Holland, Madeleine and Schwalm, Christopher}, title = {{Temperatures \& Tensions Rise}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Security-and-Climate-Risk-in-the-Arctic_Tensions-and-Temperatures-Rise_2021_06_21.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }