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CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT
The report examines the security implications of climate change in the South and East China Seas, focusing on the interplay between regional political cohesion and food prices. It presents four scenarios—ranging from high cooperation and low prices to high fragmentation and food insecurity—to illustrate potential risks, including social unrest, the failure of governance, and increased Chinese maritime aggression. The analysis emphasizes that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions and socio-economic inequalities in Southeast and East Asia.
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Document type: Report
Socio-economic resilience in the shadow of Boko Haram
The report examines the erosion of socio-economic resilience in the Lake Chad Basin due to the Boko Haram conflict. It details the disruption of fishing, agriculture, and livestock trade, the negative impact of state-imposed trade bans and extortion, and the specific vulnerabilities of women. It argues that the lack of state development presence pushes communities toward 'perverse social contracts' with violent extremist groups for survival.
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Document type: Report
Combining sewered and non-sewered sanitation in Montero, Bolivia
The report evaluates four sanitation system configurations in Montero, Bolivia, finding that while the utility COSMOL has successfully implemented mixed services, significant gaps remain in environmental sustainability and governance. It highlights that minor technical optimizations can reduce health and environmental risks across all systems, with urine-diverting dry toilets (UDDTs) offering the highest potential for impact reduction. While local farmers show interest in sanitation-derived fertilizers, household acceptance of on-site systems is hindered by concerns over odors and vectors. The report concludes that upscaling sustainable sanitation requires stronger collaboration between local authorities and COSMOL, new policy instruments, and a long-term strategic vision.
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Document type: Report
Exploring the Environment-Conflict-Migration Nexus in Asia
The report analyzes how climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Asia, compounding existing social, political, and economic vulnerabilities to exacerbate conflict and drive migration. Focusing on Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, it examines how environmental stressors like droughts and floods intersect with ethnic discrimination and political instability. It highlights the specific vulnerabilities of displaced populations, such as the Rohingya and Afghans, who often reside in hazard-prone urban slums or camps. The document argues that national and regional policies frequently omit the climate-conflict-migration nexus and recommends that humanitarian agencies and policy-makers integrate these linkages to build long-term resilience and support safe, regular migration.
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Document type: Report
Better ways to build peace and resilience in South Sudan
The report assesses the cyclical nature of violence in South Sudan and the failure of successive peace agreements to establish lasting stability. It argues that durable peace requires a multi-level approach that links local and national processes, prioritises long-term investment over 'quick-fix' events, and integrates livelihood support with social cohesion. The authors highlight the devastating humanitarian cost, noting that 8.3 million people needed assistance as of October 2021, and emphasize that resilience-building must address root causes of inequality and justice rather than treating resilience as an end goal. A key identified opportunity for innovation is addressing the gendered dimensions of conflict-driven hunger, which the report argues has been overlooked in national peace frameworks.
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Document type: Report
FICHE RÉGIONALE AFRIQUE DE L’OUEST
The document details how West Africa is experiencing warming faster than the global average, leading to increased heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and severe economic losses. It highlights critical vulnerabilities in health, food security, and coastal infrastructure, while emphasizing the urgent need for increased climate finance and data collection to support transformative adaptation.
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Document type: Fact sheet
FACTSHEET WEST AFRICA
West Africa has experienced warming of 1–3°C since the mid-1970s, leading to increased heatwaves, variable rainfall, and widespread losses in GDP and food productivity. Future projections indicate severe risks, including a potential 30% decline in marine fisheries catch and significant population exposure to sea level rise, particularly in coastal cities like Lagos and Abidjan. Adaptation requires transformative, ecosystem-based approaches and a significant increase in climate finance, as current funding is insufficient and heavily skewed toward non-African institutions.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Impacts, options d’adaptation et domaines d’investissement pour une Afrique centrale résiliente au changement climatique
The document details the disproportionate impact of climate change on Central Africa, highlighting significant temperature increases, biodiversity loss, and economic decline. It emphasizes the critical need for transformative adaptation and increased climate finance to mitigate future risks to health, food security, and infrastructure.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate Change in the Indian Mind, 2022
A 2022 report by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and CVoter based on a survey of 4,619 Indian adults. It finds that while general awareness of the term 'global warming' remains low, a large majority of Indians believe it is happening, is human-caused, and is personally important. There is strong public support for renewable energy, the Paris Climate Agreement, and government action, alongside high reported vulnerability to extreme weather events like droughts and floods.
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Document type: Report
Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna
The document explains 'event attribution' as a scientific method to determine how much human-induced climate change affects the probability and intensity of specific weather extremes. It provides a detailed breakdown of how climate change influences heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, snowfalls, droughts, and wildfires, while cautioning against oversimplifying these events as having a single cause. The guide emphasizes that while some trends (like heatwaves) are globally certain, others (like floods or droughts) vary by region and are influenced by local human factors such as land use and water management.
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Document type: Guide
Green Climate Fund Readiness Support for Sierra Leone
The proposal seeks USD 330,171 over 18 months to empower the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) of Sierra Leone as the National Designated Authority (NDA). The programme focuses on establishing a gender-responsive country programme, improving stakeholder engagement, and developing a pipeline of high-priority climate projects. Implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the initiative aims to address Sierra Leone's vulnerability to flooding, rainfall changes, and sea-level rise by enhancing the country's ability to navigate GCF procedures and coordinate inter-ministerial climate efforts.
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Document type: Report
Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding
The analysis finds no significant evidence that human-caused climate change altered the probability or intensity of the October 2020 heavy rainfall events in Central Vietnam. While observations suggest a 1-in-80 year event, the uncertainty ranges for both observational and model-based data are too large to establish a significant climate change signal. The study concludes that natural variability currently outweighs climate change impacts for multi-day precipitation in the region, emphasizing the need for improved disaster risk reduction measures regardless of climate trends.
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Document type: Research paper
The Kingdom of Eswatini’s Initial Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC
The Kingdom of Eswatini's Initial Adaptation Communication (AdCom) identifies key climate hazards such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, and details national efforts to mitigate these impacts through flood control, irrigation, and climate-proofed infrastructure. It highlights the role of the National Climate Change Policy (2016) and the National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2015-2020) in guiding adaptation actions involving government, NGOs, and the private sector.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change in the American Mind, September 2021
The September 2021 survey indicates that public understanding of global warming is at record highs in the U.S., with 76% of Americans believing it is happening and 60% attributing it to human causes. While 70% of respondents express worry and 69% feel a personal responsibility to help, there is a gap in understanding the strength of scientific consensus, with only 24% aware that over 90% of climate scientists agree on human-caused warming. The report also highlights a high perceived link between global warming and domestic weather impacts, including extreme heat and wildfires, though many Americans rarely discuss the topic with friends or family.
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Document type: Report
Some of the heaviest rains have been getting heavier since 1950
Climate Central analysis shows that 72% of 246 evaluated U.S. locations have seen an increase in the amount of rain falling on their annual wettest day since 1950, with the most significant increases occurring in the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic. The document links these trends to rising temperatures, noting that for every 1°F increase, the atmosphere holds approximately 4% more moisture. It highlights the severe impacts of these events, including $43 billion in flood damages from 2016-2020 and disproportionate risks for Black, Brown, Indigenous, and poor communities, particularly in redlined areas where flood risk is 25% higher.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Durable solutions to migration challenges in East Africa and the Horn
The report analyzes mixed migration in East Africa and the Horn, identifying a complex interplay of political instability, state fragility, poverty, and climate change as primary drivers. It highlights the challenges of protracted refugee situations, particularly the restrictive nature of encampment policies, and contrasts the progressive refugee framework in Uganda with more restrictive regimes in neighboring states. The document argues for a shift from dependency to self-reliance, the harmonization of regional and international laws, and the integration of climate adaptation into migration policies to achieve durable solutions.
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Document type: Report
Climate change and natural hazards in Bosnia and Herzegovina: a gender equality, social equity and poverty reduction lens
The document analyzes how socio-economic vulnerabilities—including gender, age, disability, and minority status—increase the risk and impact of climate-related hazards in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It highlights that disadvantaged groups are more likely to live in hazard-prone areas and lack the resources to adapt. The brief argues for inclusive policymaking and warns that both adaptation and mitigation strategies can lead to 'maladaptation' or detrimental socio-economic effects if not carefully designed to protect the most vulnerable populations.
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Document type: Briefing
West Africa Coastal Areas Resilience Investment Project (WACA 2)
The WACA program aims to strengthen coastal resilience in Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauritania, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, and Togo by mainstreaming climate risks into national policies and investing in transport, urban, and natural resource sectors. Supported by a USD 222 million package approved by the World Bank in 2018, the initiative utilizes a 'WACA Marketplace' to match investment demand with partner financing. As of June 2021, 17% of committed funds were disbursed, with specific outcomes in Benin including the securing of 3,500 households from erosion and flooding. The document highlights that the success of such regional instruments depends on strong regional cooperation, political stability, a pipeline of bankable projects, and currency stability.
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Document type: Case study
Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE)
The Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE) provides index insurance to smallholder farmers in Africa, utilizing mobile technology and solar-powered weather stations to trigger rapid payouts for yield loss. By 2018, the program insured over 1.7 million farmers in Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda, covering crops such as maize and coffee against drought, storms, and excess rain. The model relies on a 50% premium subsidy shared between farmers and agribusiness partners, and leverages mobile money platforms like M-PESA to reduce operational costs and accelerate claims settlement. The document identifies critical success factors for scaling, including robust local climate data, progressive regulation, and the high adoption of mobile money across Africa.
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Document type: Case study
Climate Change in the American Mind
The September 2021 report 'Climate Change in the American Mind' provides a comprehensive data set tracking US public opinion on global warming. Key findings include a rise in the percentage of Americans who believe global warming is happening (76% in September 2021) and an increase in those who are 'Very worried' about it (35%). The data also shows a growing consensus that global warming is caused by human activities (60%) and is affecting US weather (70%), specifically impacting wildfires (50% 'A lot') and extreme heat (49% 'A lot').
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Document type: Report