Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding

The analysis finds no significant evidence that human-caused climate change altered the probability or intensity of the October 2020 heavy rainfall events in Central Vietnam. While observations suggest a 1-in-80 year event, the uncertainty ranges for both observational and model-based data are too large to establish a significant climate change signal. The study concludes that natural variability currently outweighs climate change impacts for multi-day precipitation in the region, emphasizing the need for improved disaster risk reduction measures regardless of climate trends.

• The October 2020 flooding and landslides, driven by typhoon Linfa, a tropical depression, and two subsequent typhoons, resulted in over 200 deaths, more than 500 injuries, and structural damages estimated at 1.2 billion US dollars.
• Analysis of weather observations indicates that heavy rainfall of the magnitude seen in October 2020 (Rx15day) is expected to occur approximately once every 80 years in the current climate.
• Observational data suggests the 1-in-80 year event is 1.6 times more likely to occur than in the early-industrial climate, with a corresponding 9% increase in rainfall; however, these figures are not statistically significant due to very large uncertainty ranges (0.1 to 400 for likelihood and -41% to +86% for rainfall amount).
• Climate models showed no change in the intensity of the event (uncertainty from -8% to +8%) and no change in the likelihood of an event at least as intense as the 2020 event (uncertainty range from 2.5 times less to 2.3 times more frequent).
• The study concludes that human-caused climate change is not a major driver of present multi-day heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam, as changes from climate change are currently much smaller than natural variability on a 2-week time scale.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2021). Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/limited-role-of-climate-change-in-october-2020-vietnam-flooding/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding. 2021. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/limited-role-of-climate-change-in-october-2020-vietnam-flooding/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding |date=16 December 2021 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/limited-role-of-climate-change-in-october-2020-vietnam-flooding/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2021limited, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Limited role of climate change in October 2020 Vietnam flooding}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/limited-role-of-climate-change-in-october-2020-vietnam-flooding/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }