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The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa, concluding that the pandemic will cause a severe development setback. It forecasts that Africa's economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic projections. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct COVID-19 mortality, the report warns that reduced health expenditure and high debt levels could lead to significant indirect deaths and a systemic human development crisis. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased domestic health spending, and accelerated digitisation to build long-term resilience.

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while the continent's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the economic shock will likely erase years of progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of 2030 SDGs. The analysis emphasizes that the primary suffering will stem from economic contraction and a resulting debt crisis rather than direct virus mortality. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased health spending, and investment in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure to build long-term resilience.

The document argues that Africa is experiencing a growing economic divergence from the rest of the world, with GDP per capita projected to be less than one quarter of the global average by 2040. While human well-being indicators like life expectancy have improved, the continent's growth is constrained by an unproductive economic structure dominated by low-end informal services and a slow demographic transition. To ignite a 'growth revolution', the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach focusing on basic infrastructure, reducing fertility rates, and transitioning toward manufacturing and productive agriculture. The brief emphasizes that leveraging the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energy, and the African Continental Free Trade Area, alongside accountable leadership, is essential to reversing commodity dependence and achieving sustainable prosperity.

The report proposes a 'green stimulus' for the Caribbean focusing on distributed energy resources (DERs) to combat pandemic-related job losses and long-term economic vulnerability. It identifies solar PV, wind, electric vehicles (EVs), and energy efficiency as high-impact sectors for immediate employment. Beyond jobs, the document highlights how DERs improve resilience against hurricanes and economic shocks, while enabling economic diversification in sectors like agro-industry by lowering energy costs.

The document examines how COVID-19 disrupted African extractive industries through reduced global demand, supply chain failures, and operational shutdowns. It highlights the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies like Nigeria and the specific challenges facing South Africa's mining sector. Conversely, it identifies a 'silver lining' in the increased demand for gold due to its role in rapid antibody tests. The report argues that the crisis provides a governance opportunity for African nations to diversify their economies, reduce reliance on Chinese demand, and implement structural reforms to protect property rights and broaden tax bases.

The document analyzes the tension between South Africa's efforts to reform its copyright law via the Copyright Amendment Bill B13-2017 and the US Trade Representative's (USTR) review of South Africa's GSP eligibility. It argues that the US uses GSP conditionalities to protect its own IP interests and force reciprocity, which infringes on the national regulatory space of developing nations. The author suggests that South Africa and other African nations should diversify their exports toward knowledge-based goods and pursue a bottom-up approach to IP rights through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement to reduce dependence on unilateral US trade arrangements.

The paper analyses the socio-economic effects of mine closures on women and youth, highlighting how traditional gender roles and lack of skills create vulnerabilities. It argues that past policy responses, such as retraining and job placement, often failed to address these inequities, and recommends more inclusive, multi-stakeholder planning for future low-carbon transitions.

The document argues that while Africa has seen improvements in health indicators, it is falling further behind the rest of the world in average income and economic productivity. It identifies a 'unproductive structure' of economies dominated by low-end services and a slow demographic transition as primary barriers. To ignite a 'growth revolution' by 2040, the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach prioritizing basic infrastructure, a reduction in birth rates to achieve a demographic dividend, and the revitalization of the manufacturing sector to support agriculture and high-value services.

The report analyzes the reliance of BRICS nations on fossil fuel revenues and subsidies, urging a strategic shift in fiscal policy to diversify economies and support vulnerable groups during the clean energy transition.

The report analyzes the rise of an insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, attributing it to long-term government neglect, high youth unemployment, and social exclusion. It details the group's evolution from targeting security installations to committing atrocities against civilians, while criticizing the government's 'extrajudicial state of emergency' and human rights violations.

The document defines agricultural transformation as the process of an agri-food system moving from being "subsistence-oriented and farm-centred" to one that is "more commercialized, productive and off-farm-centred." It outlines a comprehensive taxonomy of terms across several categories, including agricultural credit, knowledge systems, markets, and subsidies. It also defines broader macroeconomic and governance terms such as monetary policy, inflation, exchange rates, and human capital, as well as specific rural infrastructure needs like irrigation and electrification. The glossary emphasizes that inclusive transformation is characterized by "poverty reduction, increased food security, and improvements in gender equality and women’s empowerment."

The report analyzes agricultural transformation across 117 countries from 1970 to 2015, identifying six phases of transformation and five structural contexts based on land fertility, availability, and population dynamics. It argues that successful transformation requires a tailored mix of 'push' strategies (increasing agricultural productivity) or 'pull' strategies (growing non-agricultural sectors), depending on a country's endowments. Key drivers of success include removing 'anti-agricultural bias' in price policies, strategic public investment in R&D and extension services, and critical institutional reforms such as land redistribution. The report provides specific policy recommendations for 13 focus countries in Africa and Asia, matching them with historically successful 'analogue' countries based on their 2015 structural contexts.

The report analyzes the economic fragility of Berau, East Kalimantan, caused by its heavy reliance on coal mining, which contributes over 60% of its GRDP. While the district is shifting toward palm oil, the study warns that mono-cropping palm oil risks replicating the same commodity-dependency trap. It recommends a transition plan based on increasing productivity and efficiency over land expansion, diversifying into high-value crops like pepper and cocoa, and developing downstream processing refineries to capture added value. Additionally, the report suggests optimizing government revenue through 'Own-Source Revenue' and implementing innovative ecological fiscal transfer mechanisms to reward sustainable land management.

The paper argues that Zambia is caught in a 'commodity trap' and 'quiescence trap', where over-reliance on copper exports and a lack of economic complexity hinder broad-based growth. While copper production has improved social indicators like the Human Development Index since 2000, the country faces a severe fiscal crisis with government debt projected to reach nearly 150% of GDP by 2020. The author identifies policy volatility, specifically frequent changes to the Mineral Royalty Tax (MRT), as a primary deterrent to long-term investment and exploration. To overcome these barriers, the paper suggests replicating 'islands of effectiveness'—local-level collaborative governance models—such as the town of Kalumbila, which integrates mining with upstream and downstream linkages. Key recommendations include securing property rights, reducing the cost of doing business, and reversing the 5% concentrate import tax to fully utilise smelting capacity.

The paper reviews 154 publications covering 181 country case studies to understand the consequences of mining decline. It finds that economic impacts, such as job loss and regional decline, are the most documented, while social and political effects are understudied. The authors argue that successful transitions require long-term planning, strong local leadership, and coordinated financial mechanisms, noting that recovery often takes a decade or more.

The report analyzes the economic fragility of Berau Regency due to its heavy reliance on coal mining and the risks of replacing it with a palm oil monoculture. It argues for a multi-dimensional transition focusing on palm oil productivity efficiency over expansion, diversification into high-value crops like pepper and cocoa, and the development of downstream processing industries. The document also proposes optimizing local government revenue and implementing innovative ecological fiscal transfer mechanisms to incentivize sustainable land management.

The paper finds that most fossil fuel producing nations fail to use NDCs and LEDS to plan for a managed decline in production, often focusing only on cleaner extraction methods or explicitly planning for continued production.

The report examines local content policies (LCPs) in the mining sector, specifically focusing on local procurement. It details how 'local' is defined through geography, value addition, and ownership, and outlines various demand-side and supply-side policy options. The document emphasizes that for these policies to succeed, they must be supported by pre-conditions such as capacity analysis, a conducive business climate, and strong monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.

The report examines the risks associated with the potential significant decline of South Africa's coal production over the next five to ten years. It highlights the high concentration of coal assets in Mpumalanga province and the resulting vulnerability of local employment and municipal revenues. The authors argue that a 'just transition' requires moving beyond technical energy models to address local-level impacts, including labor redeployment, economic diversification, and the remediation of environmental legacies. It identifies gaps in current governance, such as the conflict of interest within the Department of Mineral Resources, and suggests that existing mechanisms like Social and Labour Plans need systemic improvement to be effective.

The report analyzes Indonesia's fiscal shift from fossil fuel dependence, noting a significant drop in upstream oil and gas revenues from 35% of total revenues in 2001 to 6% in 2016. It argues that current fuel and electricity subsidies are inefficient and that the government underutilizes the fiscal space available through energy consumption taxes compared to other BRIICS countries. The document advocates for investing subsidy savings and fossil fuel taxes into social development, economic diversification, and renewable energy.