pb-146-german2-e39bc015d867cf05.pdf

This policy brief summarizes the book 'Africa First!' by Jakkie Cilliers, which analyzes the current development trajectory of Africa and proposes a scenario for economic growth and poverty reduction by 2040. The document highlights a growing economic divergence between Africa and the rest of the world, attributing the slow progress to unproductive economic structures, slow demographic transitions, and weak governance.

• While Africa has seen improvements in health indicators such as life expectancy and infant mortality, it is falling further behind the rest of the world in other metrics, particularly average income. The impact of COVID-19 is expected to worsen this disparity.
• Economic projections for 2020 to 2040 suggest an average growth rate of 4.3%, with the total economy expected to grow by 130%. However, because the population is projected to increase by 82% by 2040, average income is only expected to rise by 30%, compared to a 150% increase in the rest of the world.
• The slow demographic transition is a primary inhibitor of growth. A 'demographic dividend'—where the working-age population grows faster than the dependent population—is not expected in Africa until 2050. This transition only accelerates when birth rates drop below 2.8 children per woman.
• Africa's economic structure is characterized by an unproductive dominance of low-end services, often in the informal sector, and a shrinking manufacturing sector. Manufacturing is noted as being six times more productive than agriculture.
• Agriculture suffers from low yields and high post-production waste, leaving most African countries as net food importers. The annual net trade deficit for agricultural products is nearly 100 billion US$ and is projected to quadruple by 2030.
• To achieve sustainable growth, the document advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach, prioritizing basic infrastructure—such as clean water, sanitation, electricity, and primary education—before investing in large-scale industrial projects.
• Technological 'leapfrogging,' particularly through renewable energy, decentralized grids, and satellite internet (mentioning SpaceX and OneWeb), is seen as a way to increase productivity and formalize the informal sector.
• Effective development requires a shift in governance toward honest, future-oriented leadership that respects constitutional term limits and involves the youth population.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). pb-146-german2-e39bc015d867cf05.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. pb-146-german2-e39bc015d867cf05.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=pb-146-german2-e39bc015d867cf05.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndpb146german2e39bc015d867cf05pdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{pb-146-german2-e39bc015d867cf05.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }