Africa First!

The document argues that while Africa has seen improvements in health indicators, it is falling further behind the rest of the world in average income and economic productivity. It identifies a 'unproductive structure' of economies dominated by low-end services and a slow demographic transition as primary barriers. To ignite a 'growth revolution' by 2040, the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach prioritizing basic infrastructure, a reduction in birth rates to achieve a demographic dividend, and the revitalization of the manufacturing sector to support agriculture and high-value services.

• Africa is experiencing a widening economic gap with the rest of the world; while the continent's economy is projected to grow by 130% between 2020 and 2040, its average income is expected to rise by only 30%, compared to a 150% increase globally.
• The continent's economic underperformance is attributed to an unproductive structure where low-end services dominate and the manufacturing sector is shrinking, which hinders the development of productive economic frameworks.
• A slow demographic transition is a critical but neglected factor; Africa will not reach a 'demographic dividend'—where the working-age population outweighs dependents—until 2050, unless birth rates fall below 2.8 children per woman.
• Agriculture suffers from low yields and high post-production waste, leaving most African countries as net food importers with an annual agricultural trade deficit of nearly 100 billion US$, which is projected to quadruple by 2030.
• The author proposes a 'bottom-up' development strategy, arguing that investments in basic sanitation, electricity, water, roads, and primary education must precede large-scale industrial projects.
• Technological 'leapfrogging', particularly through renewable energy, decentralized grids, and satellite internet (mentioning SpaceX and OneWeb), is seen as a way to accelerate digitalization and formalize the informal economy.
• Poor governance and a lack of leadership renewal are cited as major obstacles; the continent is described as having the world's youngest population but the 'oldest leadership'.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Africa First! Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa First! Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa First! |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa First!}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }