Untapped ambition: addressing fossil fuel production through NDCs and LEDS

The paper finds that most fossil fuel producing nations fail to use NDCs and LEDS to plan for a managed decline in production, often focusing only on cleaner extraction methods or explicitly planning for continued production.

• A significant portion of major fossil fuel producers do not mention production in their NDCs; specifically, one-third of producers omit it, including seven of the top ten producers for oil, coal, and/or gas: Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Norway, Russia, and South Africa.
• None of the 57 NDCs or 8 LEDS examined provide clear data on national fossil fuel reserves or current and projected extraction levels, nor do they contain specific targets or pathways to wind down production to align with Paris Agreement goals.
• The most common reference to fossil fuel production in climate plans is the pursuit of cleaner production processes. Twenty-one NDCs and four LEDS discuss improving efficiency and reducing emissions from extraction, such as reducing venting and flaring or electrifying oil extraction.
• Very few countries communicate policies to financially disincentivize production. India is the only country identified as communicating a specific measure to constrain production via a tax ("cess") on imported and extracted coal.
• While some LEDS (Germany, US, and Canada) mention the need for a just transition for workers and communities affected by the shift away from fossil fuels, they do not provide explicit plans for how the production decline would occur.
• Several NDCs mention economic diversification to reduce dependence on fossil fuel revenues—specifically Bahrain, Chad, Congo, Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—but these documents lack concrete implementation plans.
• Some countries explicitly plan to maintain or expand production. Bangladesh aims to maximize coal output, Bolivia seeks to boost oil and mining sectors, and Pakistan intends to fully harness all domestic energy sources, including coal.
• Certain nations promote natural gas as a mitigation strategy or 'clean energy' export, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and China, despite risks of carbon lock-in and methane emissions.
• Some countries use the concept of 'response measures' to argue that their economic dependence on petroleum exports makes them vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate policies, using this as a basis to request finance and technology transfer.

APA

Verkuijl, C., Jones, N., & Lazarus, M. (2019). Untapped ambition: addressing fossil fuel production through NDCs and LEDS. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/untapped-ambition-addressing-fossil-fuel-production-through-ndcs-and-leds.pdf

Chicago

Verkuijl, Cleo, Natalie Jones, and Michael Lazarus. Untapped ambition: addressing fossil fuel production through NDCs and LEDS. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/untapped-ambition-addressing-fossil-fuel-production-through-ndcs-and-leds.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Verkuijl |first1=Cleo |last2=Jones |first2=Natalie |last3=Lazarus |first3=Michael |title=Untapped ambition: addressing fossil fuel production through NDCs and LEDS |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/untapped-ambition-addressing-fossil-fuel-production-through-ndcs-and-leds.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{verkuijl2019untapped, author = {Verkuijl, Cleo and Jones, Natalie and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{Untapped ambition: addressing fossil fuel production through NDCs and LEDS}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/untapped-ambition-addressing-fossil-fuel-production-through-ndcs-and-leds.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }