The end of coal?

The report examines the risks associated with the potential significant decline of South Africa's coal production over the next five to ten years. It highlights the high concentration of coal assets in Mpumalanga province and the resulting vulnerability of local employment and municipal revenues. The authors argue that a 'just transition' requires moving beyond technical energy models to address local-level impacts, including labor redeployment, economic diversification, and the remediation of environmental legacies. It identifies gaps in current governance, such as the conflict of interest within the Department of Mineral Resources, and suggests that existing mechanisms like Social and Labour Plans need systemic improvement to be effective.

• South Africa's electricity generation is heavily dependent on coal, with the fuel providing 92% of electricity and roughly 20% of liquid fuels. The state-owned utility Eskom and the firm Sasol are responsible for 85% of the local coal market by volume and over 50% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions.
• The economic impact of coal decline will be highly localized in the Mpumalanga province, where coal mining accounted for 19% of gross value added (GVA) in 2015. Within this province, activity is further concentrated; in 2013, the Nkangala district municipality alone provided 72% of mining GVA and 58% of utilities GVA.
• Employment in the coal sector is projected to decline regardless of climate policy as plants and mines reach the end of their lives. Under a "Low-PPD" scenario aligned with a 2°C climate limit, coal mining employment is projected to drop from 77.8 thousand in 2015 to 21.4 thousand by 2045.
• The transition faces significant political risks, including potential social destabilization and violence if affected communities are excluded. Additionally, the decline of the coal industry poses an existential threat to trade unions, which have historically served as a training ground for South Africa's political class.
• Environmental governance in the mining sector is characterized by a conflict of interest, as the Department of Mineral Resources is responsible for both the promotion of mining and its environmental oversight. There are also concerns that mining companies may close without fulfilling financial obligations for land rehabilitation.
• Existing policy mechanisms for a just transition, such as Social and Labour Plans (SLPs), suffer from systemic deficiencies, including a lack of effective enforcement and misalignment between different state agencies.

APA

Strambo, C., Burton, J., & Atteridge, A. (2019). The end of coal? Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf

Chicago

Strambo, Claudia, Jesse Burton, and Aaron Atteridge. The end of coal? Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Strambo |first1=Claudia |last2=Burton |first2=Jesse |last3=Atteridge |first3=Aaron |title=The end of coal? |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{strambo2019end, author = {Strambo, Claudia and Burton, Jesse and Atteridge, Aaron}, title = {{The end of coal?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }