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One year after the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has substituted nearly 75% of Russian gas imports and seen wind and solar generate a record 22% of its electricity in 2022. Globally, gas demand is forecast to peak by the end of the decade, with 88% of electricity demand growth to 2025 expected to be met by renewables. While renewable energy saved billions in fossil fuel costs, high gas and coal prices drove 90% of the global increase in electricity costs in 2022. Russia faces significant financial losses from sanctions, including a USD 25 billion public deficit in January 2023, while EU industrial production grew by over 2% on average despite a 15% drop in industrial gas demand.

The document asserts that the current cost of living crisis is driven by fossil fuel price volatility, particularly natural gas, rather than the costs of net-zero policies. It identifies that poorer households are disproportionately affected by energy poverty and argues that short-term government subsidies are insufficient. The briefing proposes that expanding renewable energy capacity, implementing building energy efficiency retrofits, installing heat pumps, and electrifying transport can lower energy bills, reduce market volatility, and enhance energy security.

The document contends that the current energy crisis is a "natural gas market crisis" caused by fossil fuel price volatility, specifically citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic recovery. It argues that natural gas is incompatible with the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets, noting that global gas emissions rose 23% between 2010 and 2019. The briefing highlights that solar and onshore wind are now cheaper than gas for two-thirds of the global population and that new gas projects face significant stranded asset risks, such as a USD 13 billion risk in the UK by 2050. It dismisses Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as an effective solution, noting that only 27 of over 260 projects undertaken between 1995 and 2018 were completed. Finally, it argues that for Africa, renewables are the fastest and cheapest way to expand energy access, as gas costs are projected to be double those of solar and wind by 2030.

The policy brief proposes a framework for national loss and damage facilities in Africa to manage climate-induced losses. It distinguishes between risk finance for avoidable/unavoided risks and curative finance for unavoidable risks, suggesting a diversified funding model including philanthropic funds, multilateral grants, and innovative levies. The author illustrates the need for such facilities through case studies of extreme weather in South Africa, Mozambique, and Malawi, as well as a slow-onset drought in Cape Town, highlighting gaps in current disaster response and the necessity of integrating knowledge development, resilience building, and formal compensation mechanisms.

The document argues that biogas and biomethane should primarily be reserved for hard-to-abate sectors like petrochemical production and industrial heating, as electrification via renewable energy is more cost-effective for power and heat. It highlights that biogas only addresses a minority of agricultural emissions (at most 28.9%) and warns that scaling production to meet targets, such as the EU's 35 bcm goal by 2030, could threaten food security by requiring significant arable land. Additionally, the briefing notes risks from fugitive methane emissions, high reliance on public subsidies, and safety hazards including explosions and toxicity.

The document describes CCS as an integrated infrastructure for capturing, transporting, and storing CO2. It notes a history of failure, with only 10% of projects between 1995 and 2018 being completed, but highlights a recent surge in investment and project pipelines, particularly in North America and Europe. The author argues that CCS is currently only truly essential for the cement sector, as renewables outperform it in power generation and green hydrogen is expected to undercut blue hydrogen by 2030. It warns against carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) due to high energy requirements and the risk of increasing net emissions.

The briefing outlines the scientific consensus that human activities, primarily fossil fuel combustion, are unequivocally causing climate change, leading to unprecedented warming and extreme weather. It warns that current national commitments are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C, potentially leading to 2.8°C by 2100, which would severely threaten food security, health, and biodiversity. To avoid this, the document argues for urgent, transformative changes, including widespread electrification, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, and significant methane reductions by 2030. While noting that investment in fossil fuels still outweighs adaptation and mitigation funding, it highlights progress in the falling costs of solar, wind, and battery technologies, as well as the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and climate legislation.

The briefing examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security, noting that the two nations provide 12% of global calories. It highlights how port blockades and fertiliser export suspensions have driven up prices and hunger, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. The document warns that protectionist export bans by countries like India and Argentina are exacerbating the crisis, and argues that increasing cropland to compensate is problematic due to the associated fossil fuel and fertiliser requirements.

In 2021, Russian jet fuel accounted for 5% of the EU's jet fuel imports (13,000 b/d) and 1.3% of its total consumption. This represents a significant decline from the 2015-2019 average of 30,200 b/d. IAG was the largest airline consumer of Russian jet fuel in 2021, while London's Heathrow airport was the largest airport consumer. Together, Heathrow and Gatwick airports accounted for an average of 92% of Russian jet fuel consumption between 2011 and 2021.

North Africa possesses significant solar and wind potential, with Egypt and Morocco emerging as the region's largest renewable energy markets. While Egypt's power sector is dominated by gas and Morocco's by coal, both are aggressively expanding their renewable capacities through policy shifts and international investment. Egypt has seen rapid solar growth, exemplified by the Benban solar farm, while Morocco has focused on onshore wind and concentrated solar power, aiming to become a global green hydrogen exporter by 2050.

The report argues that G7 economies face significant economic risks due to the interconnectedness of global supply chains, where climate-driven disruptions in production hubs—particularly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America—transmit shocks to industrialised nations. It cites examples such as the 2011 Thailand floods and recent flooding in Durban, South Africa, to illustrate how extreme weather causes global price spikes and production delays. Specific analyses for the US, Germany, UK, and Japan reveal vulnerabilities in sectors ranging from ICT and automotive manufacturing to food security. The document concludes that because labour cost differentials continue to drive the offshoring of production, G7 nations must cooperate globally and fulfill adaptation funding commitments to secure their own supply chains.

The document outlines the role of BECCS as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) method, noting its technical potential to remove 0.5-11.3 GtCO2 annually by 2050. However, it warns that large-scale deployment could threaten food security, biodiversity, and Indigenous rights, potentially requiring land areas twice the size of Egypt by 2100 in 1.5°C pathways. The briefing emphasizes that delaying near-term emissions reductions increases reliance on BECCS, thereby escalating land-use pressures.

The briefing highlights that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, making the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C and 2°C increasingly difficult to achieve without significant 'overshoot'. It notes a critical gap in climate finance, where current levels are roughly ten times lower than the estimated USD 6.3 trillion needed annually by 2030. While net-zero commitments and renewable energy deployment have grown substantially, the document warns against an over-reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and emphasizes the need for rapid transformations in energy, agriculture, and urban planning.

The land sector is essential for 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, potentially providing up to 30% of global mitigation. While it offers significant near-term potential at low cost, the IPCC warns that land-based mitigation cannot compensate for delayed emissions reductions in other sectors. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deemed necessary for net-zero targets, but the IPCC highlights substantial uncertainties, risks, and a massive investment gap, with current annual investment at USD 0.7 billion against a needed USD 400 billion.

The document outlines the escalating impacts of human-induced climate change on humans and ecosystems, emphasizing that the most marginalized populations are hit hardest. It highlights the role of 'attribution literature' in linking extreme weather to human activity and discusses the critical need for transformative adaptation and nature-based solutions. The briefing warns that the costs of inaction far exceed those of mitigation and adaptation, noting significant GDP losses in vulnerable nations and the potential for mass migration and biodiversity loss.

The livestock sector's growth poses a significant risk to climate goals, potentially consuming 80% of the remaining GHG budget by 2050 if current trends continue. While global meat production is rising—projected to reach 374 million tonnes by 2030—there is a growing market for Alternative Protein (AP) products, valued at USD 14 bn and expected to exceed USD 162 bn within a decade. However, the transition is hindered by substantial government subsidies, with nearly 90% of global farming subsidies (USD 540 bn annually) supporting beef, milk, and rice. The document emphasizes that while total veganism offers the highest emission reductions, flexitarian and vegetarian diets can also significantly lower emissions. It calls for government policy reforms to redirect subsidies away from industrial agriculture and for businesses to move beyond 'meaningless' net zero targets toward actual reductions in animal numbers in supply chains.

China faces significant economic vulnerability to climate-induced floods and heatwaves, with potential cumulative GDP losses between 6.6% and 23.5% by 2048 depending on global warming levels. The eastern and coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are particularly at risk, which could trigger global supply chain disruptions given their role as hubs for electrical manufacturing, cement, and shipping. Projections indicate that river floods could cause cumulative losses of USD 479 billion by 2035, with indirect costs often exceeding direct damages. Additionally, heatwaves are expected to reduce working capacity in key manufacturing regions by up to 2.04% under a >3°C scenario, driven by health-related productivity losses and reduced cognitive performance.

Methane is the second largest contributor to climate change, with concentrations increasing faster now than since the 1980s. Human activities drive over half of global emissions, primarily through agriculture (40%), fossil fuels (35%), and waste (20%). The briefing highlights that cutting methane in these sectors could reduce human emissions by 45% by 2030, avoiding 0.3°C of warming by the 2040s. However, government action is currently insufficient; only nine of 174 countries with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have set separate methane targets, and agricultural targets remain largely vague.

The energy transition increases demand for minerals like cobalt, nickel, and lithium, which are often sourced from poorly regulated mines in a few countries, leading to human rights abuses and environmental damage. While recycling and new battery technologies could reduce this demand, current recycling rates remain low, and the industry requires more transparent, enforceable sustainability standards.

The briefing details advancements in extreme event attribution, updated temperature datasets, and refined climate sensitivity models. It highlights the shrinking carbon budget for the 1.5°C target, the risks of climate tipping points, and the critical role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases like methane. Additionally, it discusses the scientific requirements for net-zero targets and the limitations of carbon dioxide removal and geoengineering.