The cascading economic cost of climate disasters for China

China faces significant economic vulnerability to climate-induced floods and heatwaves, with potential cumulative GDP losses between 6.6% and 23.5% by 2048 depending on global warming levels. The eastern and coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are particularly at risk, which could trigger global supply chain disruptions given their role as hubs for electrical manufacturing, cement, and shipping. Projections indicate that river floods could cause cumulative losses of USD 479 billion by 2035, with indirect costs often exceeding direct damages. Additionally, heatwaves are expected to reduce working capacity in key manufacturing regions by up to 2.04% under a >3°C scenario, driven by health-related productivity losses and reduced cognitive performance.

• China's economy is highly vulnerable to climate disasters, with cumulative GDP losses projected between 6.6% and 23.5% by 2048 for warming scenarios of <2°C and >3°C, respectively. A mid-case scenario of 2.6°C warming suggests a cumulative GDP loss of 18.1%.
• The eastern and coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are identified as the most affected regions. Because these areas are global hubs for the production of personal computers (over 90%), air conditioners (80%), mobile phones (70%), cement (60%), and shipping vessels (45%), climate disruptions there are likely to impact global supply chains.
• River floods are projected to cause some of the highest economic losses globally over the next two decades, with cumulative losses reaching USD 479 billion by 2035. In a 4°C warming scenario by the end of the century, annual river flooding costs could reach USD 385 billion, with indirect costs (USD 256 billion) significantly outweighing direct costs (USD 129 billion).
• Heatwaves threaten labor productivity and health, particularly in the southeastern manufacturing regions of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Under a >3°C scenario, these key manufacturing regions could lose up to 2.04% of their working capacity, compared to 0.91% under a <2°C scenario.

APA

Team, Z. (2021). The cascading economic cost of climate disasters for China. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. The cascading economic cost of climate disasters for China. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2021. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=The cascading economic cost of climate disasters for China |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=25 September 2021 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2021cascading, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{The cascading economic cost of climate disasters for China}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }