The Cascading Economic Cost of Climate Disasters for China

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the economic vulnerabilities of China to climate-induced floods and heatwaves, emphasizing that indirect economic losses often exceed direct damages and can disrupt global supply chains due to the concentration of manufacturing in high-risk regions.

• China's GDP is projected to face cumulative losses between 6.6% and 23.5% by 2048, depending on whether global warming is limited to <2°C or exceeds 3°C. A mid-case scenario of 2.6ºC warming is estimated to result in a cumulative GDP loss of 18.1%.
• River floods are expected to cause some of the highest economic losses globally over the next two decades, with cumulative losses in China reaching USD 479 billion by 2035. In a 4°C warming scenario by the end of the century, annual river flooding costs could reach USD 385 billion, with indirect costs (USD 256 billion) significantly outweighing direct costs (USD 129 billion).
• The eastern and coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are highly vulnerable to floods and heatwaves. These regions are critical to the global economy, having produced over 90% of the world's personal computers, 80% of air conditioners, and 70% of mobile phones in 2014, as well as 60% of global cement and 45% of shipping vessels.
• Heatwaves impact economic productivity through health complications and reduced cognitive performance. In 2019, Chinese workers faced estimated productivity losses of 9.9 billion hours (0.5% of total national work hours). Future projections suggest key manufacturing regions could lose between 0.91% (<2°C scenario) and 2.04% (>3°C scenario) of their working capacity.
• Indirect economic losses from flooding can be severe and long-lasting; a study of Chinese manufacturing firms from 2003-2010 found that flooding reduced annual output by 28.3% on average, with impacts on trading and stock levels persisting for two years and causing GDP losses of up to 2.3%.

APA

Team, Z. (2021). The Cascading Economic Cost of Climate Disasters for China. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. The Cascading Economic Cost of Climate Disasters for China. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2021. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=The Cascading Economic Cost of Climate Disasters for China |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=25 September 2021 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2021cascading, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{The Cascading Economic Cost of Climate Disasters for China}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/finance/the-cascading-economic-cost-of-climate-disasters-for-china/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }