IPCC WGIII Report: The Land Sector and Climate Mitigation

This briefing summarizes the IPCC Working Group III (WG3) findings on the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector, detailing its potential for climate mitigation and the role of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It highlights that while the land sector can provide up to 30% of the global mitigation needed for 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, it cannot compensate for delayed emissions reductions in other sectors. The document also notes a significant investment gap, with current funding at USD 0.7 billion per year against a requirement of over USD 400 billion per year.

• The land sector is critical for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, with the capacity to provide up to 30% of the required global mitigation. Between 2020 and 2050, the global land-based mitigation potential is estimated at approximately 8–14 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2-eq) annually, with 30-50% of this potential achievable at costs under USD 20 per tCO2-eq.
• The land sector acts as both a source and a sink of greenhouse gases. Between 2010 and 2019, it accounted for roughly 13%-21% of global emissions but functioned as a net sink, removing about 6.6 GtCO2 per year. However, there is a discrepancy of approximately 5.5 GtCO2 per year between national GHG inventories, which tend to overestimate sink absorption, and other global models.
• Different land-based measures offer varying mitigation potentials between 2020 and 2050. Protecting, managing, and restoring forests and other ecosystems have the highest potential, potentially reducing or sequestering up to 7.4 GtCO2-eq annually. Agriculture follows with up to 4.1 GtCO2-eq, and demand-side measures (such as reducing food waste and shifting diets) provide up to 3.6 GtCO2-eq.
• Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered necessary to reach net-zero GHG emissions and counterbalance residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors. In scenarios limiting warming to 2°C or lower, median cumulative CO2 removals between 2020 and 2100 include 328 GtCO2 from BECCS, 252 GtCO2 from managed land (afforestation and reforestation), and 29 GtCO2 from Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACCS).
• The IPCC warns against over-reliance on CDR due to uncertainties, risks, and a lack of social license. Risks include the potential for sinks to saturate, the possibility of trees being burnt or dying prematurely, and the risk that large-scale deployment of bioenergy or afforestation could compete with agricultural land, threatening food security and biodiversity.
• There is a massive funding shortfall for land-based mitigation. While deep mitigation scenarios require more than USD 400 billion per year to achieve the potential 30% global mitigation effort, current annual investment is estimated at only USD 0.7 billion.

APA

Team, Z. (2022). IPCC WGIII Report: The Land Sector and Climate Mitigation. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/ipcc-wgiii-report-the-land-sector-and-climate-mitigation/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. IPCC WGIII Report: The Land Sector and Climate Mitigation. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2022. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/ipcc-wgiii-report-the-land-sector-and-climate-mitigation/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=IPCC WGIII Report: The Land Sector and Climate Mitigation |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=6 April 2022 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/ipcc-wgiii-report-the-land-sector-and-climate-mitigation/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2022ipcc, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{IPCC WGIII Report: The Land Sector and Climate Mitigation}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/ipcc-wgiii-report-the-land-sector-and-climate-mitigation/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }