IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change

The briefing highlights that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, making the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C and 2°C increasingly difficult to achieve without significant 'overshoot'. It notes a critical gap in climate finance, where current levels are roughly ten times lower than the estimated USD 6.3 trillion needed annually by 2030. While net-zero commitments and renewable energy deployment have grown substantially, the document warns against an over-reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and emphasizes the need for rapid transformations in energy, agriculture, and urban planning.

• Current national climate plans (NDCs) are insufficient to meet Paris targets, putting the world on a trajectory for warming of approximately 2.7°C this century. If CO2 emissions persist at current rates, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C (estimated at 440 Gt CO2 from 2020) will be exhausted in the early 2030s.
• There is an increasing recognition of the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases; methane is responsible for nearly a quarter of human-caused warming to date, with concentrations rising faster now than at any time since the 1980s. Nitrous oxide emissions have increased by 20% from pre-industrial levels, primarily due to the use of fertilisers on croplands.
• Climate finance is severely inadequate, reaching about USD 579 billion in 2018/2017, which is approximately ten times less than the estimated USD 6.3 trillion required annually by 2030 to remain aligned with the Paris Agreement.
• Global emissions are highly unequal; the richest 1% of the world's population emit more than twice as much as the poorest 50%. High-emission activities that benefit a few include international flights and the use of SUVs, with the latter's emissions alone ranking 7th globally if treated as a nation.
• Renewable energy has significantly outperformed previous forecasts, with new renewable electricity capacity increasing by 45% to 280 gigawatts in 2020. However, to stay on a 1.5°C trajectory, the IEA suggests that solar PV and wind deployment must be double what has been announced globally.
• Achieving net-zero requires a dramatic decline in fossil fuel use, including the phase-out of all unabated coal and oil power plants by 2040. For OECD nations, the document states all coal use should be phased out by 2031.
• Most scenarios for limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2.0°C rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but this may encourage delayed mitigation and greenwashing. 'True zero' pathways—achieving the Paris goals without CDR—are possible but require much more rapid energy system transformations and larger near-term emissions cuts.
• The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector accounts for nearly 25% of global GHG emissions, driven largely by rice cultivation and livestock. While transforming this sector can reduce emissions and act as a carbon sink, it is estimated to account for at most 30% of the mitigation needed for a 1.5°C limit.

APA

Team, Z. (2022). IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2022. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=7 April 2022 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2022ipccs, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }