IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics discusses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group III, focusing on the state of climate change mitigation since 2014. It highlights the gap between current national climate plans and Paris Agreement targets, the disproportionate emissions of the global wealthy, and the critical role of renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal in achieving net-zero goals.

• Current national climate plans (NDCs) are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets, putting the world on a trajectory for warming of approximately 2.7°C this century. If CO2 emissions persist at current rates, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C—estimated at 440 Gt CO2 from 2020—will be exhausted in the early 2030s.
• There is an increasing recognition of the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Methane (CH4) is responsible for nearly 25% of human-caused warming to date, with concentrations rising faster now than since the 1980s and currently sitting at 2.5 times pre-industrial levels. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions have increased by 20% from pre-industrial levels, primarily due to the use of fertilisers on croplands.
• Climate finance is significantly lower than required for Paris alignment. In 2018/2017, climate finance reached approximately USD 579 billion, which is roughly ten times less than the estimated USD 6.3 trillion needed annually by 2030.
• Global emissions are highly unequal; the richest 1% of the world's population emit more than double the combined emissions of the poorest 50%. High-emission activities benefiting a few include SUV use and international flights, with 1% of the global population responsible for about half of the CO2 from all commercial flights.
• Renewable energy has significantly outperformed previous forecasts. In 2020, new renewable electricity capacity increased by 45% to 280 gigawatts, the largest year-on-year increase since 1999. However, to maintain a 1.5°C trajectory, the IEA indicates that solar PV and wind deployment must be double the current global announcements.
• Achieving net-zero requires a dramatic decline in fossil fuel use and the implementation of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Analysis suggests global coal emissions should have peaked in 2020, with all coal-fired power plants closed by 2040. Most scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2.0°C rely on some form of CDR, though these methods involve trade-offs such as high energy requirements for Direct Air Capture or land-use competition for BECCS.
• The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector accounts for nearly 25% of global GHG emissions, driven largely by rice cultivation and livestock production. While transforming this sector through reforestation and better management can reduce emissions, some estimates suggest it can account for a maximum of 30% of the mitigation needed for a 1.5°C limit.

APA

Team, Z. (2022). IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2022. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=7 April 2022 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2022ipccs, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{IPCC's upcoming 6th assessment report mitigation of climate change}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipccs-upcoming-6th-assessment-report-mitigation-of-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }