IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - Zero Carbon Analytics

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics discusses the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), specifically the Working Group II (WGII) report on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. It outlines the severe effects of human-induced climate change on ecosystems and humans, the increasing frequency of extreme weather, the disproportionate impact on marginalised populations, and the critical need for transformative adaptation and mitigation to avoid catastrophic economic and social costs.

• Human activities caused approximately 1.1C of global warming by 2010-19 relative to 1850-1900, and temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 1.5C within the next 20 years. This warming is already driving extreme weather events such as flooding, droughts, and heatwaves globally, with risks of abrupt responses like the annual melting of approximately 600 Gt of ice.
• Climate impacts are manifesting regionally: Africa is experiencing higher warming and sea level rise than the global average, with heatwaves projected to be up to five times more common by 2050. Europe is seeing an increase in hot extremes and the disappearance of snow cover and glaciers, while North and Central America are experiencing more frequent heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones.
• Extreme weather events are increasingly linked to human-induced climate change through attribution studies. Examples include the June 2021 Pacific Coast heatwave, wildfires in California and Oregon, and severe flooding in Western Europe. These events disproportionately affect the poor; between 1970 and 2019, over 91% of deaths from water, climate, and weather hazards occurred in developing nations.
• Climate change is driving large-scale human migration and displacement. Rising temperatures could force 3.5 billion people out of the climatic zones where humans have thrived for 6,000 years. Specifically, the World Bank estimated that Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa will generate 143 million additional climate migrants by 2050, while sea level rise has already submerged eight islands in the western Pacific.
• Environmental degradation and climate change threaten global food security and biodiversity. Approximately 25% of the world's total land area is degraded, and 95% could be degraded by 2050. One million animal and plant species face extinction, including the Bramble Cay melomys, the first mammal reported to go extinct due to climate change. Additionally, cereal costs could increase by up to 29% by 2050.
• Marginalised populations face the highest risks, with climate change potentially causing GDP losses of 64% in the most vulnerable countries. In urban areas, 215 million poor people could be exposed to average summer temperatures over 35C if current greenhouse gas trajectories continue. 'Compound extremes'—simultaneous or sequential climate hazards—are becoming more common, such as concurrent droughts and heatwaves in southern and central Africa.
• While adaptation activities have increased, they often consist of small changes rather than the transformative shifts required. Nature-based solutions, such as restoring mangroves (which store 6 billion tonnes of carbon), are cost-effective alternatives to engineered sea walls. However, a significant finance gap exists; adaptation costs in developing countries are estimated to be five to 10 times higher than current public adaptation finance.
• The economic cost of inaction is significantly higher than the cost of mitigation and adaptation. Limiting warming to 2C instead of 4C could save USD 17.5 trillion annually by 2100. Failure to limit warming to 1.5C saw inaction costs rise from USD 1.3 trillion per year in 2010 to over USD 5 trillion per year in 2020. Furthermore, climate change is projected to increase the number of people in extreme poverty from 32 million to 132 million by 2030.

APA

Team, Z. (2022). IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - Zero Carbon Analytics. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - Zero Carbon Analytics. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2022. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - Zero Carbon Analytics |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=18 February 2022 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2022ipcc, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - Zero Carbon Analytics}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/science/ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }