Gas, the energy crisis and net zero

The document contends that the current energy crisis is a "natural gas market crisis" caused by fossil fuel price volatility, specifically citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic recovery. It argues that natural gas is incompatible with the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets, noting that global gas emissions rose 23% between 2010 and 2019. The briefing highlights that solar and onshore wind are now cheaper than gas for two-thirds of the global population and that new gas projects face significant stranded asset risks, such as a USD 13 billion risk in the UK by 2050. It dismisses Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as an effective solution, noting that only 27 of over 260 projects undertaken between 1995 and 2018 were completed. Finally, it argues that for Africa, renewables are the fastest and cheapest way to expand energy access, as gas costs are projected to be double those of solar and wind by 2030.

• The global energy crisis is driven by fossil fuel price volatility and geopolitical events rather than net-zero policies. The IEA states that high gas and coal prices are responsible for 90% of electricity price increases globally.
• Continued investment in natural gas is incompatible with Paris Agreement temperature limits. To maintain a 1.5°C limit, global gas production must decrease by 3% annually by 2030, and global methane emissions—which trap significantly more heat than CO2—must fall by 75% by 2030.
• Renewable energy is more cost-effective than gas for a majority of the world's population. In the EU, zero-carbon electricity generation saved EUR 33 billion in gas bills in Q3 2021. Furthermore, over 90% of proposed gas plants in the US are expected to be uneconomic by 2035.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has a poor track record of implementation and limited impact. Between 1995 and 2018, only 27 of more than 260 projects were completed, and functioning facilities captured only 0.1% of global fossil fuel emissions in 2021.
• In Africa, renewables offer a more viable path to energy access than gas, with solar and wind projected to be half as expensive as natural gas by 2030. Current gas investments in Africa primarily benefit global north companies, with TotalEnergies, Eni, ExxonMobil and BP controlling a third of projected production.

APA

Team, Z. (2022). Gas, the energy crisis and net zero. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/gas-the-energy-crisis-and-net-zero/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Gas, the energy crisis and net zero. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2022. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/gas-the-energy-crisis-and-net-zero/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Gas, the energy crisis and net zero |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=14 November 2022 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/gas-the-energy-crisis-and-net-zero/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2022gas, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Gas, the energy crisis and net zero}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/gas-the-energy-crisis-and-net-zero/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }