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This research paper outlines the short- to medium-term trade-offs and costs associated with pursuing an industrialisation and manufacturing pathway in Africa, emphasizing that while upfront fiscal, social, and environmental costs exist, the cost of inaction—marked by unemployment and external dependence—is higher.

This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on trade within Africa and between Africa and the rest of the world, highlighting both the persistence of these barriers and examples of successful reduction efforts at border crossings.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how agricultural technologies (AgTech) and improved access to finance and fertilisers can address food insecurity and low productivity in Africa. It highlights the role of digital tools in providing credit, insurance, and data-driven farming advice, while detailing strategic efforts to increase domestic fertiliser production and soil health across the continent.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the failure of UN Security Council (UNSC) reform, attributing the deadlock to the entrenched positions of negotiating blocks and the P5 members' desire to maintain the veto power and their associated privileges.

This report analyzes the drivers of economic growth in Africa, focusing on the roles of labour, capital, and multifactor productivity (MFP). It argues that due to a late demographic dividend, Africa's growth over the next two decades must rely primarily on physical capital accumulation and technological gains rather than labour-fueled growth.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines two primary policy responses to climate change in Africa: carbon sequestration through forest regeneration and the implementation of a global carbon tax. It highlights the critical role of the Congo Basin as a carbon sink and analyzes four illustrative global carbon tax scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment approach aligns best with international equity principles and the Paris Agreement.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers proposes a structured process for the UN Security Council (UNSC) to adopt new rules of procedure, involving a sequence of approvals by the UNSC and the UN General Assembly (UNGA), with the International Court of Justice as a final arbiter. It also suggests a mechanism for suspending UNSC members for flagrant violations of the UN Charter.

The AfCFTA is presented as a critical mechanism for Africa's economic growth and structural transformation, though its success depends on overcoming political resistance to short-term tariff losses and addressing structural gaps in infrastructure and education. The document emphasizes that while the AfCFTA promotes regional integration, African nations must still pursue external agreements for critical manufacturing inputs and manage the integration of highly unequal economies, such as South Africa and its lower-income neighbors.

This introductory document outlines a foresight-driven research theme titled "State Futures in the Global South," which aims to explore the trajectory of state governance in the Global South over the next twenty years. The research focuses on how states can adapt their structures, processes, and practices to remain resilient and inclusive amidst global disruptions, emphasizing a shift from Global North-centric democratic models toward "accountable governance."

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies details the progress and structure of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) negotiations, including the three phases of legal protocols, tariff liberalisation targets, and the implementation of supporting systems like the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical shift in African development strategies from the state-led goals of the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action to the market-driven Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) imposed by the World Bank and IMF. It analyzes how these competing frameworks, alongside Cold War proxy conflicts and debt crises, contributed to a period of economic decline and decreased per capita income between 1980 and 1994.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes extreme poverty trends in Africa using a US$2.15 threshold. It highlights a divergence where the percentage of people in extreme poverty is declining, but the absolute number continues to rise due to rapid population growth, high inequality, and modest economic growth.

This research paper provides a conclusion to the 'Combined scenario' of the Agenda 2063 thematic futures, arguing that African development is a non-linear, complex process requiring national ownership, strategic prioritisation, and a 'developmental state' focused on implementation and knowledge creation rather than grand schemes.

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.

This research paper identifies the structural, social, environmental, and geopolitical drivers shaping the future of health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) in Africa, highlighting the tension between demographic opportunities and systemic risks.

This research paper describes a 'Gender scenario' model designed to forecast the impact of reducing gender inequalities on Africa's development prospects between 2024 and 2043. The scenario compares a targeted push for gender equality against a 'Current Path' business-as-usual forecast, focusing on four primary clusters of intervention: labour force participation and wages, political representation, education access, and health and reproductive rights.

This research paper describes the 'Combined scenario' for employment and labour market transformation in Africa as part of the Agenda 2063 thematic futures. It contrasts current trends of high informality and low productivity with a projected future of increased formalization, industrial resurgence, and digital transformation.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.

This research paper conclusion analyzes the current economic trajectory of Africa, highlighting a shift from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It identifies systemic barriers to growth, including poor human capital, commodity dependence, and premature deindustrialisation, while proposing strategic investments in renewable energy, digital literacy, and regional integration to foster sustainable development.