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Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026
The Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 by Sustainable Energy for All indicates that the world is off track to meet all Sustainable Development Goal 7 targets by 2030. While global electricity access has improved, progress is decelerating and heavily concentrated in Asia, leaving Africa with the vast majority of the unelectrified population. Clean cooking access is failing to keep pace with population growth in Africa, and global renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements are too slow to meet the required trajectories.
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Document type: Report
Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026
The Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 executive summary indicates that all Sustainable Development Goal 7 targets are off track for 2030. While global electricity access has reached nearly 92%, progress is decelerating, and the remaining deficit is heavily concentrated in Africa. Clean cooking access remains a critical gap with 2 billion people lacking access, and global energy efficiency and renewable energy shares are not improving fast enough to meet 2030 targets.
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Document type: Executive summary
Rethinking public support to agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa
This report examines the reform of agricultural subsidy programs in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically in Malawi, Kenya, and Zambia, to address fiscal pressures, climate change, and soil degradation.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA IN THE WORLD 2043: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic and social impacts on Africa by 2050 across four global scenarios: Sustainable World, Growth World, Divided World, and World at War. It identifies the success of integration efforts, such as the AfCFTA, as the primary driver of divergent outcomes, noting that the Sustainable World scenario offers the most significant gains in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and human development, while the World at War scenario presents the worst outcomes.
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Document type: Research paper
Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path
This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
The Demographics and Health Scenario
The Demographics and Health Scenario is a research paper that models the potential impact of accelerated fertility decline and health infrastructure improvements across Africa. It outlines a series of ambitious but empirically grounded interventions starting in 2027 to enhance human development and economic growth relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.
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Document type: Research paper
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' would nearly double sub-Saharan Africa's economy by 2043 compared to the current path, increasing GDP per capita to US$9,798 and significantly reducing extreme poverty to 7.3%. While services and manufacturing are expected to drive the most GDP growth, the scenario also predicts an increase in carbon emissions to 892 million tons by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects
This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the relationship between demographic growth and economic prospects in Africa. It highlights that while Africa's overall economic growth is projected to outpace the rest of the world through 2050, rapid population growth limits the gains in GDP per capita, necessitating a demographic dividend and productivity improvements to narrow the global gap.
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Document type: Research paper
Leapfrogging
The report explores how Africa can 'leapfrog' traditional development stages by adopting decentralised renewable energy, mobile-first digital infrastructure, and AI. It highlights the success of mobile money (e.g., M-Pesa) and the potential for solar mini-grids to close the energy gap. A projected 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario suggests that by 2050, such strategic investments could increase GDP per capita by US$510, reduce extreme poverty by 63 million people, and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current trends.
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Document type: Report
Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the energy access gap in Africa and the potential for 'leapfrogging' traditional fossil-fuel grids in favor of decentralized renewable energy systems, specifically solar-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions.
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Document type: Research paper
Leapfrogging in the Financial Sector
This research paper examines the 'fintech revolution' in Africa, detailing how mobile and digital technologies have allowed the continent to leapfrog traditional banking systems to achieve greater financial inclusion and economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Progress and Challenges with Infrastructure in Africa
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state of large-scale infrastructure in Africa, highlighting a gap between improving development scores and persistent financing deficits. It analyzes the roles of Chinese investment via the Belt and Road Initiative, the impact of pan-African initiatives like PIDA, and the transition toward green, climate-resilient infrastructure.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper provides a forecast of Africa's employment landscape through 2043, highlighting a critical gap between the rapid growth of the working-age population and the economy's capacity to create formal jobs. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario with a 'Combined' scenario involving pro-growth policies, noting that while the services sector dominates GDP, the continent faces significant youth unemployment and a reliance on the informal sector.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper introduces a thematic study on gender futures in Africa, analyzing the gap between the continent's extensive policy frameworks for gender equality and the persistent social and economic inequalities. It outlines the economic costs of these disparities and sets the stage for modeling the impact of reducing gender inequalities on development outcomes through 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s future education requirements: Vocational education
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state and requirements of vocational education in Africa, highlighting a significant mismatch between graduate skills and employer needs, low enrollment in vocational programs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the challenges posed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
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Document type: Report
The Poor Quality of Education in Africa
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the systemic poor quality of education in Africa, highlighting a significant gap in learning outcomes compared to global averages and the critical role of early childhood development and systemic governance in improving economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s educational funnel in context
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'educational funnel' in Africa, detailing the significant attrition rates from primary through tertiary education. It highlights a severe educational crisis in sub-Saharan Africa compared to North Africa and other global regions, noting that the region is forecast to miss several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 targets by 2030.
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Document type: Research paper
Rates of gender exclusion
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender exclusion in African education, comparing enrollment ratios and attainment levels across different regions and educational tiers. It highlights a persistent gap between male and female education in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Central Africa, and notes that without aggressive interventions, the region will struggle to close the gap with global averages.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES
This report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of gender inequality and health in Africa, focusing on disparities in disease impact, maternal mortality, reproductive health access, and the influence of social norms on healthcare outcomes.
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Document type: Report
Unlocking long-term scale: Rethinking RBF for sustainable mini-grids
This white paper by the ARE Financier Circle examines how Results-Based Financing (RBF) for mini-grids in sub-Saharan Africa can be optimized to better mobilize private commercial capital. It argues that current RBF designs often prioritize short-term connection numbers over long-term business viability, creating 'cliff-edge risks' and administrative barriers that deter investors. The paper proposes a four-pillar approach focusing on aligning impact metrics with commercial sustainability, adjusting disbursement schedules to support capital raises, introducing lifecycle risk mitigation instruments, and fostering ecosystem-wide collaboration.
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Document type: Research paper