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The report analyzes how the internal conflict in South Sudan has become an arena for regional power struggles. It details the competing interests of Uganda and Sudan, the security concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the economic and hydropolitical motivations of Kenya and Egypt. The author argues that these external interventions, particularly the military involvement of Uganda and the proxy interests of Sudan, have regionalized the crisis and undermined the mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The document argues that a high-ambition global climate agreement, defined as limiting global warming to 2°C by 2100, is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It asserts that a low-ambition agreement would undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty, equalise gender relations, and provide access to water and energy over the next 15 years. The brief calls for the SDGs and their associated financing to support climate-compatible development, particularly in the poorest and most climate-vulnerable countries.

The report finds that Uganda faces a critical biomass deficit by 2020, which climate change will likely exacerbate. While the government's current electricity expansion plan can cover potential hydropower losses from reduced precipitation, it requires significant investment. Adaptation focuses on reducing biomass dependence through fuel switching and energy efficiency.

The report argues that a high-ambition climate agreement aiming to limit global warming to 2°C is essential for achieving the SDGs by 2030, particularly those related to poverty, inequality, and energy. Using Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), the study compares a high-ambition scenario (RCP4.5/SSP1) with a low-ambition scenario (RCP8.5/SSP3). Findings indicate that under a low-ambition agreement, poverty levels in 2030 could be 80–140% higher in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa compared to the high-ambition scenario. Case studies in Dominica, Jamaica, Pakistan, and Uganda highlight that while the specific sensitivity of SDGs varies by country, poverty and energy goals are consistently most at risk under low-ambition climate policies. The report emphasizes a reciprocal relationship: ambitious SDGs are necessary to implement a high-ambition climate deal, and a high-ambition deal is necessary to realize the SDGs.

The report details the application of natural capital science and software tools across various sectors to integrate ecosystem services into decision-making. Key examples include the Inter-American Development Bank's infrastructure planning in Latin America, China's massive reforestation and zoning efforts, and corporate sustainability initiatives by Dow, Unilever, and Coca-Cola. It highlights the role of the Natural Capital Project's open-source tools, such as InVEST and OPAL, in quantifying the trade-offs between economic development and the preservation of natural assets like watersheds and coastal habitats.

The document describes an assessment of Uganda's legal and administrative readiness to operationalize the IGF Mining Policy Framework (MPF). Supported by the Canadian International Development Agency, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) evaluated Uganda's existing government measures against the six themes of the MPF to help the government target implementation and capacity-building efforts.

This research paper examines the role of judicial independence within the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), arguing that the judiciary's contribution to good political governance is understated and marginalized in the mechanism's assessment reports.

The Climate Development and Finance Facility (CDFF) is designed to address financing gaps for wind, solar, and hydro projects in low- and lower-middle income countries. It utilizes a three-stage approach: a Development Fund for early-stage due diligence, a Construction Fund that uses equity to avoid high-cost construction debt, and a Refinancing Fund to attract institutional investors once projects are operational. A pilot implementation requires USD 150 million in donor capital to mobilize USD 1.88 billion in private capital, aiming to install approximately 300 MW of clean energy and reduce annual CO2 emissions by around 600 ktCO2.

The Climate Development and Finance Facility (the Facility) is a proposed investment structure designed to overcome financing barriers for renewable energy projects in developing countries. It integrates three stages of support: a Development Fund for early-stage due diligence, a Construction Fund that uses equity to finance construction costs and avoid expensive early-stage debt, and a Refinancing Fund to attract institutional investors once projects are operational. The pilot targets projects between 25-75 MW in specific low- and lower-middle income countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. To launch, the Facility requires USD 150 million in donor capital, which is projected to mobilize USD 2 billion in private capital, install approximately 300 MW of clean energy, and reduce annual CO2 emissions by around 600 kt.

The Long-Term FX Risk Management instrument, developed by The Lab in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and The Currency Exchange Fund Management Company (TIM), aims to unlock climate-relevant investments in emerging markets. By offering long-term fixed and inflation-linked cross-currency swaps, interest rate swaps, and local currency loans, the instrument addresses the financial uncertainty caused by currency mismatches in capital-intensive clean infrastructure projects. A proposed pilot requires USD 250 million in donor risk capital to provide up to USD 1 billion in hedging capacity, potentially supporting USD 1.5 billion in clean investment projects and reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1.7 MtCO2.

The report identifies three primary categories of insecurity in Kenya: armed civilian groups, state-led violence, and jihadist activities. While al-Shabaab has increased its frequency and deadliness of attacks since the 2011 deployment of troops to Somalia, the report finds that non-al-Shabaab armed groups and state actions have historically caused more fatalities. The analysis highlights systemic drivers of instability, including the legacy of 'imperial presidents', pervasive marginalisation—particularly regarding land distribution at the coast and in the Rift Valley—and the politicisation of security for electoral gain. It also notes the influence of the regional war economy and porous borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The document analyzes the challenges of low tax bases in Africa, driven by factors such as tax avoidance by multinational corporations, over-generous fiscal incentives, and illicit capital flight. It evaluates the G-20/OECD BEPS project as a mechanism to close international tax loopholes and ensure profits are taxed where economic activity occurs. The author argues that while BEPS is a step in the right direction, African countries are under-represented in the process and must strengthen their voice through the UN Tax Committee and the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF) to ensure outcomes are equitable.

The document examines the critical role of National Governing Councils (NGCs) as the link between political leadership and technical research in the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It identifies significant inconsistencies in NGC size, composition, and legal status across participating states, which hinder the consistency and legitimacy of Country Self-Assessment Reports (CSAR). The brief argues that meaningful independence from government, clear legal mandates, and robust technical support from the APRM Secretariat are essential for the mechanism's success. It recommends that the Secretariat develop coherent guidelines and that civil society organisations (CSOs) hold governments accountable for the composition of these councils.

Natural Justice submits that the World Bank's Draft Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) fails to align with modern human rights standards, specifically criticizing the 'opt-out clause' in ESS7. This clause allows borrowers to waive ESS7 protections for indigenous peoples if they claim identifying such groups would risk 'ethnic tension' or 'civil strife,' or if it conflicts with national constitutions. Natural Justice contends this nullifies essential protections like Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC), promotes a regressive view of indigenous identity, and sets a dangerous precedent for other international financial institutions.

The report estimates that making Uganda's infrastructure climate-resilient will cost between US$52-66 million annually by 2020, rising to US$638-1,157 million by 2050. Residential buildings are the most affected sector, accounting for approximately half of all adaptation costs. The study also projects that annual damages from extreme events, if frequency doubles every 25 years, could reach US$738-3,294 million by 2050. Key adaptation priorities include climate-proofing public buildings and developing resilient transport standards.

The report uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool to project that Uganda's total water demand will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. Under a 'business as usual' scenario, total unmet demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y. The estimated economic cost of these shortages in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), though this could be ten times higher if income elasticity is considered. The most significant losses are anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds. The report also highlights the impact of extreme events, noting that droughts in 2005-06 and 2010-11 caused losses of US$250 million and US$1,174 million, respectively. Proposed adaptation measures, including water harvesting, increased supply for production, and Integrated Water Resources Management, are found to be economically viable, with some generating a 10% rate of return even with minimal reductions in damage.

The report finds that while national-level losses for food crops by 2050 are projected to be less than US$1.5 billion (under 0.2% of GDP), agricultural exports—particularly coffee—face severe risks. Climate-induced yield and area losses for coffee could reach 50-75% by 2050, with potential value losses of US$1,235 million to US$1,850 million. Tea and cotton also face significant production declines. Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, are identified as a more urgent threat than gradual yield decreases, with the 2010-11 drought causing approximately US$470 million in losses to the agricultural sector. The report evaluates eight strategic adaptation interventions, noting that most address current climate variability and offer high benefit-to-cost ratios, particularly community-based adaptation and agricultural diversification.

The assessment finds that while Uganda has established a comprehensive legal and policy framework for mining, its actual implementation readiness is medium to low due to severe capacity constraints in monitoring, inspection, and enforcement. Strengths include the public availability of geological data and a progressive variable tax rate for mining companies. However, critical gaps exist in mine closure planning, financial assurance for restoration, and the formalization of the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, which accounts for 90% of national production but remains overwhelmingly informal. The report recommends prioritizing socioeconomic benefit optimization, improving post-mining transition frameworks, and increasing transparency in the distribution of mining revenues.

The report analyzes the relapse into violence in South Sudan following its 2011 independence, identifying the root causes as political power struggles and structural governance failures rather than purely ethnic conflict. It argues that the leadership of both President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar has failed to provide a strategic vision, resulting in a state characterized by corruption, patronage, and a lack of institutional capacity. The author evaluates three future scenarios: a transitional government of national unity, a neutral interim government, and the maintenance of the status quo. The report concludes that a neutral interim government is the most viable path to implement the systemic reforms necessary to move beyond short-term political fixes and address the country's legacy of injustice.

The document examines how the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) evaluates judicial independence, arguing that the process relies too heavily on formal constitutional protections rather than the actual capacity of courts to issue autonomous judgements. Through analysis of reports from Uganda, Lesotho, and Tanzania, the author identifies a gap between the 'rhetoric' of separation of powers and the 'reality' of executive interference, underfunding, and selective compliance. The paper recommends shifting the APRM's focus toward 'judicial empowerment' and integrating the broader 'legal complex'—including law societies and legal scholars—into the assessment process to better understand the systemic pressures on the rule of law.