Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The report finds that while national-level losses for food crops by 2050 are projected to be less than US$1.5 billion (under 0.2% of GDP), agricultural exports—particularly coffee—face severe risks. Climate-induced yield and area losses for coffee could reach 50-75% by 2050, with potential value losses of US$1,235 million to US$1,850 million. Tea and cotton also face significant production declines. Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, are identified as a more urgent threat than gradual yield decreases, with the 2010-11 drought causing approximately US$470 million in losses to the agricultural sector. The report evaluates eight strategic adaptation interventions, noting that most address current climate variability and offer high benefit-to-cost ratios, particularly community-based adaptation and agricultural diversification.

• National-level impacts on food crops by 2050 are difficult to predict due to model divergence, but overall losses are projected to be no more than US$1.5 billion, representing less than 0.2 percent of projected GDP in that year.
• Certain staple food crops are highly vulnerable, with cassava, potato, and sweet potato predicted to decline by as much as 40% by 2050.
• Agricultural exports are severely threatened; coffee production could see yield and area losses of 50-75% by 2050, with a 50% reduction scenario resulting in a value loss of US$1,235 million and a 75% reduction scenario resulting in US$1,850 million.
• Tea and cotton exports also face significant risks, with a plausible 50% fall in tea production by 2050 potentially causing a US$175 million export loss, and cotton production potentially falling to 60-77% of the no-climate-change scenario.
• Extreme weather events are a higher priority for adaptation than gradual yield declines; the 2010-11 drought caused approximately US$470 million in losses to food crops, cash crops, and livestock, equating to 16% of their total GDP value in 2011.
• Regional analysis indicates that the Eastern and Northern regions of Uganda will experience the largest negative impacts on production and total value for all crops.
• Impacts on livestock production from general temperature and precipitation trends are projected to be small (1-2%), suggesting that the primary risks to livestock are extreme events like droughts, floods, and diseases.
• The Government of Uganda's eight strategic adaptation interventions, with a proposed 15-year budget of US$297 million, are generally viewed as economically justifiable because they address current climate variability.
• High-priority adaptation actions with potentially high benefit-to-cost ratios include community-based adaptation strategies, agricultural diversification, and the promotion of adaptive crop varieties.

APA

Dale, N., Markandya, A., Bashaasha, B., & Beucher, O. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_Agricultural_Sector.pdf

Chicago

Dale, Nick, Anil Markandya, Bernard Bashaasha, and Olivier Beucher. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_Agricultural_Sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dale |first1=Nick |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |last3=Bashaasha |first3=Bernard |last4=Beucher |first4=Olivier |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_Agricultural_Sector.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dale2015economic, author = {Dale, Nick and Markandya, Anil and Bashaasha, Bernard and Beucher, Olivier}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_Agricultural_Sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }