The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis

This report analyzes how the internal political and military crisis in South Sudan, which began in December 2013, has evolved into a regional competition for influence among Horn of Africa states. It details the conflicting strategic, economic, and security interests of Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, and Egypt, arguing that their proxy support and geopolitical maneuvering undermine mediation efforts led by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

• Uganda and Sudan are engaged in a zero-sum competition for influence in South Sudan, which the author argues contributes to both the military and political stalemates. Uganda intervened militarily to support President Salva Kiir's government to protect its economic ties and prevent a victory by Riek Machar's opposition forces. Conversely, Sudan views the Ugandan military presence as a "source of instability par excellence" and a threat to its own national security and traditional zone of influence.
• Sudan maintains significant leverage over South Sudan due to deep cultural, demographic, and economic bonds, most notably its control over the pipelines and territory required for South Sudanese oil exports. While Sudan has officially supported Kiir, there are concerns it may simultaneously support opposition forces to prevent the emergence of a strong, oil-rich state allied with Uganda.
• Ethiopia has attempted to maintain a balanced role in mediation to prove itself as a reliable international partner, but its strategy is driven by three primary security concerns: the influx of nearly 250,000 refugees since December 2013; the risk of ethnic conflict spilling over into its own Gambella region; and the fear that a collapsed South Sudanese government would allow Eritrea to infiltrate Ethiopian rebel groups.
• Eritrea is viewed by Ethiopia as a source of instability that may be covertly supporting South Sudanese opposition forces to sabotage mediation efforts. Eritrea's perceived goal is to keep Ethiopia entangled in the South Sudanese crisis to diminish Ethiopia's regional influence and to strengthen its own strategic relationship with Sudan.
• Kenya's involvement is primarily driven by the desire to protect its significant financial investments in South Sudan's banking sector and to facilitate regional trade through the port of Mombasa and the Lamu Port South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) project. Kenya seeks to divert the oil pipeline from the North to the South to reduce dependence on Sudan.
• Egypt's interest in South Sudan is tied to its concerns over Nile waters and its desire to counterbalance Ethiopia's growing regional influence, specifically regarding the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam. To this end, Egypt signed a military cooperation deal with South Sudan in March 2014 to establish a formal security alliance.
• The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is leading the mediation process but is described as being "crippled from the get-go" by Uganda's military intervention. The report suggests IGAD has failed to acknowledge that the warring parties are not negotiating in good faith and are instead seeking military victory.

APA

Mesfin, B. (2015). The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf

Chicago

Mesfin, Berouk. The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mesfin |first1=Berouk |title=The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mesfin2015regionalisation, author = {Mesfin, Berouk}, title = {{The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }