The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis

The report analyzes how the internal conflict in South Sudan has become an arena for regional power struggles. It details the competing interests of Uganda and Sudan, the security concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the economic and hydropolitical motivations of Kenya and Egypt. The author argues that these external interventions, particularly the military involvement of Uganda and the proxy interests of Sudan, have regionalized the crisis and undermined the mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

• Uganda and Sudan are engaged in a zero-sum competition for influence in South Sudan, with Uganda providing direct military support to President Salva Kiir's government to protect its economic ties and political leverage. Sudan views this Ugandan presence as a "source of instability par excellence" and a threat to its own national security and traditional zone of influence.
• Sudan maintains deep political, cultural, and economic bonds with South Sudan, most notably through its control of the pipelines and territory required for South Sudanese oil exports. The report suggests Sudan may benefit from a protracted civil war to prevent the rise of an oil-rich state allied with Uganda.
• Ethiopia's approach is driven by security concerns, including the management of nearly 250,000 South Sudanese refugees and the risk of ethnic conflict spilling over into its own Gambella region. Ethiopia seeks to prevent the total collapse of the South Sudanese government to avoid creating a vacuum that Eritrea could use to infiltrate Ethiopian rebel groups.
• Eritrea is viewed as a source of instability that may be covertly supporting South Sudanese opposition forces to sabotage Ethiopia's regional influence and mediation efforts. Eritrea aims to use the crisis to improve its own political and economic position and solidify its strategic relationship with Sudan.
• Kenya's interests are primarily economic, focusing on protecting its investments in the finance and banking sectors and promoting the Lamu Port South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) project to divert oil pipelines southwards.
• Egypt's involvement is tied to its interests in the Nile waters and its desire to counterbalance Ethiopia's growing influence, specifically regarding the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam. Egypt signed a military cooperation deal with South Sudan in March 2014 to establish a formal security alliance.
• The mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have been compromised by the fact that member states, specifically Uganda and Sudan, act simultaneously as impartial mediators and partisan supporters of opposing proxies.

APA

Mesfin, B. (2015). The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf

Chicago

Mesfin, Berouk. The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mesfin |first1=Berouk |title=The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mesfin2015regionalisation, author = {Mesfin, Berouk}, title = {{The regionalisation of the South Sudanese crisis}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/E_Africa_Report_4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }