Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This report provides an economic assessment of climate change impacts on Uganda's infrastructure sector, focusing on the costs of increasing resilience and the damages caused by extreme weather events. It estimates the additional costs for new construction and maintenance across residential, public, and transport infrastructure through 2050, while modeling the financial risks of floods and droughts based on historical data and future GDP projections.

• The cost of making Uganda's infrastructure more climate resilient is estimated to range from US$52-66 million annually for 2015-2020, rising to US$638-1,157 million for the 2045-2050 period. New construction is expected to account for approximately 37% of these total costs, with the remainder attributed to additional maintenance.
• Total infrastructure adaptation costs to 2050 vary by scenario: approximately US$2 billion under a more climate-friendly scenario (temperature increase of 1.5 to 2°C) and up to US$3 billion under a less friendly scenario (temperature increase of 2 to 3°C).
• Buildings represent the vast majority of climate change costs in the infrastructure sector, accounting for 92% of the total. Residential buildings are the most affected, representing about half of all costs, followed by public buildings (25%) and private non-residential infrastructure (16%). Transport infrastructure accounts for 8 to 10% of costs, estimated at US$194 to US$250 million by 2050.
• Expected annual damages from extreme events, assuming no increase in frequency or intensity, are currently estimated between US$20-130 million, rising to US$39-234 million by 2025 and US$189-838 million by 2050. If the frequency of such events doubles every 25 years, annual damages could reach US$738-3,294 million by 2050.
• The report identifies the highest priorities for the infrastructure adaptation programme as climate proofing public buildings, developing standards for transport and infrastructure planning, and integrating climate change-resilient standards into existing infrastructure risk assessment guidelines.
• For disaster risk management, the Government of Uganda's National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) proposes actions with a total cost of US$12 million to 2030. High-priority actions include improving early-warning systems, implementing a disaster risk management strategy, strengthening the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre, and establishing a national contingency fund.
• A disaster risk management programme costing US$12 million could generate a rate of return of at least 10% if it reduces expected damages by as little as 7% (under conservative assumptions) or 1.2% (under upper bound assumptions).
• Historical extreme events have caused severe infrastructure damage in Uganda. The May 2013 floods in Kasese resulted in 19 bridges being washed away and repair costs estimated between US$2 million and US$13.7 million. The El Nino floods of 1997/8 caused trunk and rural road infrastructure damage costed at US$400 million (US$752 million in 2013 prices).

APA

Markandya, A., Taylor, T., Kajubi, L., & Cunliffe, S. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Infrastructure-Sector.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Tim Taylor, Lammeck Kajubi, and Scott Cunliffe. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Infrastructure-Sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=Taylor |first2=Tim |last3=Kajubi |first3=Lammeck |last4=Cunliffe |first4=Scott |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Infrastructure-Sector.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2015economic, author = {Markandya, Anil and Taylor, Tim and Kajubi, Lammeck and Cunliffe, Scott}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Infrastructure-Sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }