Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The report uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool to project that Uganda's total water demand will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. Under a 'business as usual' scenario, total unmet demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y. The estimated economic cost of these shortages in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), though this could be ten times higher if income elasticity is considered. The most significant losses are anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds. The report also highlights the impact of extreme events, noting that droughts in 2005-06 and 2010-11 caused losses of US$250 million and US$1,174 million, respectively. Proposed adaptation measures, including water harvesting, increased supply for production, and Integrated Water Resources Management, are found to be economically viable, with some generating a 10% rate of return even with minimal reductions in damage.

• Total water demand in Uganda is projected to grow significantly, increasing from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050.
• Average total unmet water demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y currently to 1,651 MCM/y by 2050, with a maximum annual unmet demand of 1,966 MCM/y.
• The estimated economic cost of water shortages in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (approximately US$5.5 billion), though this figure could be ten times higher if income effects on willingness to pay are included.
• The most severe economic losses from water shortages are expected to occur in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds.
• Historical drought events have caused substantial economic damage, with the 2005-06 drought resulting in losses of US$250 million and the 2010-11 drought causing losses of US$1,174 million.
• Analysis of the Government of Uganda's adaptation strategy indicates that programs for water use efficiency and increased supply for agriculture and industry would generate a 10% rate of return even with very small reductions in unmet demand (0.51% and 0.4% respectively).
• Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) measures to tackle drought would generate a 10% return if they achieve a minimum reduction in damages of 4.5%.

APA

Taylor, T., Markandya, A., Droogers, P., & Rugumayo, A. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf

Chicago

Taylor, Tim, Anil Markandya, Peter Droogers, and Albert Rugumayo. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Taylor |first1=Tim |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |last3=Droogers |first3=Peter |last4=Rugumayo |first4=Albert |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{taylor2015economic, author = {Taylor, Tim and Markandya, Anil and Droogers, Peter and Rugumayo, Albert}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }