Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This report provides an economic assessment of climate change impacts on Uganda's water sector, projecting water demand and supply through 2050. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, it estimates significant increases in unmet water demand and associated economic losses, while evaluating the cost-effectiveness of government adaptation strategies.

• Total water demand in Uganda is projected to increase from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050.
• Average total unmet water demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y currently to 1,651 MCM/y by 2050, with a maximum single-year unmet demand of 1,966 MCM/y.
• The estimated economic cost of water shortages in 2050 is approximately 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), assuming zero income elasticity of demand. This figure could be up to ten times higher if income effects on willingness to pay are considered.
• The most severe economic losses from water shortages are anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds.
• Historical drought events have caused substantial economic damage, with the 2005-2006 drought resulting in losses of US$250 million and the 2010-2011 drought causing losses of US$1,174 million.
• Analysis of the Government of Uganda's National Climate Change Policy Costed Implementation Strategy indicates that programs focusing on water use efficiency (Programme A) and water supply for agriculture and industry (Programme B) would generate a 10% rate of return even with very small reductions in unmet demand (0.51% and 0.4% respectively).
• Integrated Water Resource Management (Programme C) to address extreme events would also generate a 10% return if it reduces drought damages by 4.5%.
• By 2050, water for livestock is projected to be in deficit across all eight watersheds, while irrigation water will be in deficit in five of the eight watersheds.

APA

Taylor, T., Markandya, A., Droogers, P., & Rugumayo, A. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf

Chicago

Taylor, Tim, Anil Markandya, Peter Droogers, and Albert Rugumayo. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Taylor |first1=Tim |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |last3=Droogers |first3=Peter |last4=Rugumayo |first4=Albert |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{taylor2015economic, author = {Taylor, Tim and Markandya, Anil and Droogers, Peter and Rugumayo, Albert}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }