The nature and drivers of insecurity in Kenya

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the drivers and types of insecurity in Kenya, arguing that while al-Shabaab receives significant attention, armed criminal groups and the nature of Kenyan politics pose more widespread threats. The document examines the role of state-led violence, historical land injustices, and regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa in shaping the country's security landscape.

• Armed civilian groups, including bandits and criminal gangs, represent the most significant source of insecurity in Kenya. Between 2000 and 2014, these groups caused an estimated 333 deaths per year, and from 2011 to 2014, 686 reported activities by such groups resulted in approximately 1,262 deaths. These groups are often utilized by political and economic elites to intimidate populations during election years, such as in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2007-2008, and 2013.
• The Kenyan state has historically been a major source of insecurity through heavy-handed responses to civilian activities and insurgencies. Notable incidents of state-led mass killings include the Shifta War (1964-1967), the 1980 Garissa Gubai massacre, and the 1984 Wagalla Massacre. The report notes that state security forces are still viewed by many as a "feared and abusive infrastructure" due to their colonial and post-independence history.
• Al-Shabaab's activities in Kenya increased significantly following the launch of Operation Linda Nchi in October 2011. While the group has carried out high-profile attacks, such as the September 2013 assault on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi (at least 67 deaths) and the 2014 Mpeketoni attacks (over 60 deaths), it accounted for only 9% of total insecurity-related fatalities in Kenya since 2008. However, its use of guerrilla tactics and targeting of soft civilian targets make its impact highly significant.
• Systemic marginalization and historical land injustices are primary drivers of contemporary insecurity. In the Coastal Province, an estimated 80% of landowners are said to lack title deeds, contributing to the emergence of grievance-based groups like the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC). In the Rift Valley, the displacement of ethnic groups and tensions between Kalenjins and Kikuyus over land continue to fuel communal clashes.
• National security issues have become highly politicized, with both the government and opposition using insecurity for political gain. This includes the intentional creation of insecurity to intimidate opponents and the manipulation of narratives surrounding attacks, such as the Mpeketoni incident, to benefit specific political agendas or influence the International Criminal Court (ICC) trials of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
• Regional dynamics and the 'war economy' in Somalia further exacerbate Kenyan insecurity. Porous borders allow for the spillover of instability and the flow of illicit goods, including 'blood sugar', 'blood charcoal', and 'conflict electronics'. Additionally, there are concerns regarding the influence of European criminals and the flow of illicit drugs along the coast from Lungalunga to Lamu.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A. (2015). The nature and drivers of insecurity in Kenya. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East-Africa-Report-2-Kenya.pdf

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews. The nature and drivers of insecurity in Kenya. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East-Africa-Report-2-Kenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |title=The nature and drivers of insecurity in Kenya |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East-Africa-Report-2-Kenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoah2015nature, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews}, title = {{The nature and drivers of insecurity in Kenya}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East-Africa-Report-2-Kenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }