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Urban Food Environments
The document argues that Africa's rapid urban growth necessitates immediate investment in food environments to prevent unhealthy path dependencies. It identifies a funding gap of US$100 million over the next five years across four key initiatives: AfriFOODlinks, the Africa Food Environment Research Network (FERN), the Living Off-Grid Food & Infrastructure Collaboration (LOGIC), and the Resilient Municipal Market Fund (ReMark). The brief emphasizes that urban food environments are shaped by physical, economic, social, and infrastructural factors, and suggests aligning these with agroecological principles to improve resilience, equity, and resource efficiency.
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Document type: Briefing
The Role of Generative AI Use in 2024 Elections Worldwide
The IPIE analyzed GenAI usage across 50 countries with competitive national elections in 2024. Findings show that GenAI was reported in 80% of these countries, primarily for content creation (90% of cases). While 69% of instances served malicious ends, 16% were benevolent. The study highlights a significant challenge in actor identification, with 46% of cases remaining unclear, and notes that foreign actors were involved in 20% of reported incidents, all for nefarious purposes.
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Document type: Research paper
Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend
The document argues that Africa's potential for a demographic dividend depends on accelerating the demographic transition—reducing child mortality and fertility—and converting a larger working-age population into economic growth through job creation and governance. It contrasts the youthful population of Africa with the ageing populations of Europe and the Netherlands, suggesting strategic opportunities for labour mobility and trade. Using the International Futures (ifs) model, the author presents a 'Demographics and Health' scenario where targeted investments in contraceptives, maternal health, and WASH infrastructure lead to a smaller, wealthier, and better-educated population by 2050, reducing extreme poverty by 48 million people.
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Document type: Research paper
ESS disclosure report form for subprojects Environmental and social report(s) disclosure
The report details the disclosure of an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), and an Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS) for the Ampyr - Dhule subproject in Maharashtra, India. It confirms that these documents were made available in English and Marathi to satisfy GCF requirements for Category B sub-projects, ensuring disclosure at least 30 days before an investment decision. The report also notes that the project adheres to an IFC-compliant ESMS and lists specific dates for stakeholder engagement and public disclosure in Mhasale Village.
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Document type: Report
Shifting sands
The report analyzes the roles of Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt as transit and destination hubs for migrants moving from sub-Saharan Africa toward Europe. It highlights a systemic tension between the European Union's focus on border externalization and the African Union's goal of regional free movement. In Libya, state fragmentation has allowed smuggling networks and militias to control migration routes, leading to severe human rights abuses. Tunisia has seen a surge in sub-Saharan migrants and relies heavily on EU-funded border security despite lacking a national asylum policy. Egypt hosts approximately nine million migrants and maintains a more stable governance structure, though it has recently implemented stricter visa restrictions for Sudanese nationals. The report argues that current securitized approaches often drive migrants toward riskier routes and recommends a shift toward human rights, economic development, and the ratification of the AU Free Movement Protocol.
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Document type: Report
GCF-IFC Scaling Resilient Water Infrastructure (RWI) Facility Cote ’Ivoire, Egypt, Gabon, Morocco, Tunisia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chile, Peru, Azerbaijan
The Gender Action Plan for the GCF-IFC Scaling Resilient Water Infrastructure (RWI) Facility aims to increase women's economic participation in climate-resilient water infrastructure. The plan focuses on integrating women as leaders, employees, suppliers, and consumers through gender-smart solutions, gender diagnostics for all projects, and the mitigation of gender-based violence and harassment (GBVH). Key targets include ensuring all projects are gender flagged and screened for GBVH risks, with a program-level budget of $160-200K for initial gender screenings.
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Document type: Report
Report on the activities of the Secretariat
The GCF Secretariat report details progress on its 2024 work programme, highlighting a new organizational structure launched on 9 September 2024 to improve investment efficiency and country ownership. Key achievements include the approval of 28 funding proposals for USD 1.5 billion and the operationalization of the 2024–2027 Readiness Strategy. The Secretariat is implementing the "Efficient GCF" initiative to reduce project review times and is developing a revised accreditation framework to simplify access. While programming targets are on track, challenges persist in private sector pipeline development and the procurement of no-objection letters.
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Document type: Report
Green capital tsunami: China’s >$100 billion outbound cleantech investment since 2023 turbocharges global energy transition
Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.
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Document type: Report
Solar photovoltaic manufacturing in Africa: opportunity or mirage
The document examines Africa's potential to enter the solar PV manufacturing value chain, highlighting its abundance of critical minerals like copper and tin and high solar irradiance. It identifies significant barriers, including China's dominance of over 80% of the global value chain, high capital requirements for polysilicon production, and a lack of domestic technological capacity. The authors argue that individual African countries lack the resources to compete and instead recommend a regionalized strategy to pool resources and achieve economies of scale.
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Document type: Research paper
German-African industrial relations: insights and next steps
The research paper argues that German-African industrial relations are underperforming due to a skewed German perception of Africa as a crisis-ridden region rather than a diverse set of economic opportunities. It highlights the growth of several African economies and the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while noting that German business engagement remains low and government strategies are often uncoordinated and paternalistic. The authors recommend that Germany replace aid with trade and investment, particularly in green hydrogen, and that African governments increase transparency and infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment.
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Document type: Research paper
STOP FOSSIL FUELS FROM FUELLING CONFLICT
The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.
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Document type: Report
When Leaders Fail Democracy, Democracy Fails the People
The document examines the gap between high popular support for democracy in Africa and the low satisfaction with its actual implementation. It highlights a trend of disputed elections and popularly celebrated coups as symptoms of leadership failure and the inability of democratic systems to provide basic socio-economic rights. Using examples from Zimbabwe and Gabon, it argues that when elections fail to reflect the will of the people or improve living conditions, the stability of democratic institutions is threatened.
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Document type: Briefing
Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification
North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.
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Document type: Policy brief
No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink
The policy brief examines the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and its allies, and the subsequent impact on the EU. It criticizes the EU's current approach to Lebanon, which it claims prioritizes migration control over structural stability, and calls for a shift toward comprehensive economic support, targeted sanctions against corrupt elites, and active diplomacy to avoid a humanitarian and energy catastrophe.
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Document type: Policy brief
What African countries can learn from the continent's top performers in e-government
The paper analyzes e-government in Mauritius, South Africa, Seychelles, and Tunisia, arguing that a modular approach focusing on user experience can bypass the slow progress of traditional 'whole-of-government' strategies.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Shift Index Alert
From June 11-13, 2024, over 290 million people in Northern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East are forecast to experience extreme heat made at least five times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher are expected in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt. The document highlights risks including wildfires in Greece, damage to Bulgaria's rose oil production, and increased vulnerability for refugees in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Towards migration policy coherence
The report argues that the EU's pursuit of 'policy coherence' in its external migration dimension is primarily a tool for containment, often instrumentalising development aid to limit migration. It highlights the inherent tensions between migration management, development, and integration, noting that the EU's reliance on conditionality and compensation in partnerships with third countries often ignores the domestic interests of those partners and lacks evidence-based effectiveness in addressing the 'root causes' of migration.
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Document type: Report
A Livable Climate Needs Help from Youth: The U.S. Can Foster It
The authors contend that youth are disproportionately affected by climate change and its associated security risks but remain excluded from formal policymaking. They propose three specific actions for U.S. leadership: including youth in the Paris Agreement negotiating team, utilizing youth engagement in public diplomacy and peacebuilding, and leveraging influence in international financial institutions like the World Bank to prioritize youth-led climate projects.
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Document type: Statement
Turkey’s Aspirations in Africa: Soft Power as a Tool for Geopolitical Positioning
Turkey has expanded its influence in sub-Saharan Africa by leveraging a combination of humanitarian diplomacy, shared religious identity, and an anti-colonial narrative to establish soft power, which has subsequently paved the way for hard power interests. A key pillar of this strategy is the relationship with Somalia, recently solidified by a 10-year Defence and Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement granting Turkey authority over the management and defence of Somali waters. While Turkey positions itself as an alternative to Western powers, it faces competition from other middle powers like the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. The document notes that Turkey's future engagement will be heavily influenced by its domestic economic crisis, potentially shifting priority toward high-yield economic activities such as defence exports and construction contracts over humanitarian aid.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization
The report identifies four 'pillars' of protest—demands, strategy, composition, and organization—that influence the size of a movement and the likelihood of regime loyalty shifts. It argues that non-violent, broad-based campaigns demanding regime change are most likely to succeed and lead to democratic consolidation. However, it notes a recent decline in the success rate of such movements and a rise in anti-liberal protests. For international democracy promoters, the report recommends investing in civil society infrastructure during stable periods rather than attempting to instigate regime shifts.
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Document type: Report