Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification

North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.

• North Africa is experiencing severe climatic shifts, including declining annual rainfall and extreme temperature spikes, such as 51 degrees Celsius in Algeria and 49 degrees Celsius in Tunisia's capital.
• Water availability is projected to drop significantly, with the World Bank predicting that per capita water in the region will fall below the absolute scarcity limit of 500 cubic meters per year by 2030.
• Sea level rise and coastline subsidence pose a major threat to Egypt's Nile River Delta, which accounts for 30 to 40 percent of the country's total agricultural production.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is identified as a potential threat to Egypt's water security, with the possibility of reducing the water supply by 25 percent.
• Desertification and deforestation are severely impacting the Maghreb region, leading to high food import dependency; for example, Libya relies on imports for 90 percent of its cereal consumption.
• Climate-related water scarcity is expected to cause significant economic damage, with estimated GDP losses between 6% and 14% by 2050.
• By 2040, rising temperatures may cause southern Egypt to lose 30 percent of its food production, increasing its reliance on global food markets.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2024). Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/07/18/ecological-security-threats-in-north-africa-for-2040-water-scarcity-and-desertification/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification. 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/07/18/ecological-security-threats-in-north-africa-for-2040-water-scarcity-and-desertification/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification |date=18 July 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/07/18/ecological-security-threats-in-north-africa-for-2040-water-scarcity-and-desertification/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2024ecological, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/07/18/ecological-security-threats-in-north-africa-for-2040-water-scarcity-and-desertification/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }