Shifting sands

The report analyzes the roles of Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt as transit and destination hubs for migrants moving from sub-Saharan Africa toward Europe. It highlights a systemic tension between the European Union's focus on border externalization and the African Union's goal of regional free movement. In Libya, state fragmentation has allowed smuggling networks and militias to control migration routes, leading to severe human rights abuses. Tunisia has seen a surge in sub-Saharan migrants and relies heavily on EU-funded border security despite lacking a national asylum policy. Egypt hosts approximately nine million migrants and maintains a more stable governance structure, though it has recently implemented stricter visa restrictions for Sudanese nationals. The report argues that current securitized approaches often drive migrants toward riskier routes and recommends a shift toward human rights, economic development, and the ratification of the AU Free Movement Protocol.

• Socio-economic instability, characterized by high unemployment, remains a primary driver of migration in North Africa, pushing individuals to seek opportunities abroad.
• Libya's lack of centralized authority and ongoing conflict have created a governance vacuum where militias and smuggling networks control migration routes, resulting in widespread human rights violations, including torture and forced labour in detention centres.
• As of February 2024, Libya hosted approximately 719,064 migrants from 44 nationalities, with Nigeriens (25%), Egyptians (22%), and Sudanese (19%) forming the largest groups.
• Tunisia has experienced a significant increase in sub-Saharan migrants, with sea arrivals to Italy originating from Tunisia peaking at 61% in 2023, compared to 33% from Libya.
• Tunisia lacks a comprehensive national asylum policy despite ratifying the 1951 Refugee Convention, leaving asylum seekers dependent on international organizations like the UNHCR for protection.
• Egypt hosts approximately nine million migrants (about 9% of its population), with the largest groups originating from Sudan (4 million), Syria (1.5 million), Yemen (1 million), and Libya (1 million).
• In response to the conflict in Sudan, Egypt implemented stricter visa regulations for Sudanese citizens, which has led to increased visa forgery and pushed migrants toward riskier routes.
• There is a fundamental tension between the EU's strategy of 'externalisation'—funding border controls in North Africa to prevent migration to Europe—and the African Union's Free Movement Protocol aimed at regional integration.
• EU financial support, such as the €800 million initiative for the Libyan Ministry of the Interior, has been criticized for prioritizing border security and the interception of migrants over the protection of human rights.

APA

Monyani, M. (2024). Shifting sands. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732174541229-NAR-8.pdf

Chicago

Monyani, Margaret. Shifting sands. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732174541229-NAR-8.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Monyani |first1=Margaret |title=Shifting sands |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2024 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732174541229-NAR-8.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{monyani2024shifting, author = {Monyani, Margaret}, title = {{Shifting sands}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732174541229-NAR-8.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }