The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization

The report identifies four 'pillars' of protest—demands, strategy, composition, and organization—that influence the size of a movement and the likelihood of regime loyalty shifts. It argues that non-violent, broad-based campaigns demanding regime change are most likely to succeed and lead to democratic consolidation. However, it notes a recent decline in the success rate of such movements and a rise in anti-liberal protests. For international democracy promoters, the report recommends investing in civil society infrastructure during stable periods rather than attempting to instigate regime shifts.

• Mass movements are most likely to achieve their primary objectives when they demand the end of the regime using a non-violent strategy, mobilize a large and diverse set of actors across social divisions, employ tactical diversity, and rely on existing organizational networks.
• Non-violent campaigns generally have a significant 'mobilizing advantage' over violent ones because they present fewer moral, physical, and logistical barriers to entry, allowing them to attract a more diverse participant base.
• Non-violent strategies are more effective at inducing loyalty shifts within security forces due to a 'morality mechanism' (higher psychological costs of repressing unarmed people) and a 'network-tie mechanism' (greater social overlap between a diverse movement and security forces).
• The type of demand influences both the success rate and the democratic outcome; regime-changing campaigns have the highest success rate (41%), while secessionist campaigns have the lowest (9%).
• Urban social groups, particularly students and industrial workers, are more likely to mobilize, more likely to adopt non-violent strategies, and more likely to be guided by a pro-democratic ideology than rural peasant groups.
• High levels of female participation are correlated with increased movement size, a higher propensity for non-violent strategies, and a greater likelihood of success, potentially by increasing the moral cost of repression for security forces.
• Pre-existing organizational networks in civil society reduce collective action problems and improve a movement's ability to sustain mobilization and enforce tactical compliance, even after state repression.
• There has been a substantial increase in 'anti-liberal' mass movements since 2000, which advocate for authoritarian regimes or the restriction of civil liberties, often correlating with economic hardship and democratic erosion.
• The effectiveness of non-violent mass mobilization in promoting democratization appears to have declined after 2010, possibly due to smaller population mobilization, more uniform tactics, and improved state repression technologies.
• International support for pro-democracy movements can be counterproductive if it undermines the legitimacy of domestic actors by making them appear as 'foreign puppets'.

APA

Dahl, M., Gjerløw, H., & Rudolfsen, I. (2024). The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c372bb97-c95c-445f-abae-c5088abc0ad5/PRIO Paper-Pillars of protest.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Dahl, Marianne, Haakon Gjerløw, and Ida Rudolfsen. The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c372bb97-c95c-445f-abae-c5088abc0ad5/PRIO Paper-Pillars of protest.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dahl |first1=Marianne |last2=Gjerløw |first2=Haakon |last3=Rudolfsen |first3=Ida |title=The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c372bb97-c95c-445f-abae-c5088abc0ad5/PRIO Paper-Pillars of protest.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dahl2024pillars, author = {Dahl, Marianne and Gjerløw, Haakon and Rudolfsen, Ida}, title = {{The Pillars of Protest: Demands, Strategy, Composition and Organization}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c372bb97-c95c-445f-abae-c5088abc0ad5/PRIO Paper-Pillars of protest.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }