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The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.

The document argues that Israel's ambition to expand the Abraham Accords, particularly to Saudi Arabia, has been thwarted by a combination of far-right domestic policies and Saudi Arabia's strategic pivot toward normalization with Iran, Syria, and Hamas. While existing agreements with states like the UAE remain economically robust, the brief notes that the current Israeli government's actions in the West Bank and its judicial reforms have strained relations with the US and Jordan, while removing the primary incentive for Saudi engagement.

Turkey has rapidly become a global exporter of military drones, specifically the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı models, using this technology to enhance its soft power and establish new geopolitical alliances. This shift is part of a broader quest for 'strategic autonomy'—the ability to make defense decisions independently—driven by past arms sanctions from the US and technical failures with Israeli technology. While the drone sector has provided a significant economic boost, with defense and aerospace exports exceeding $4 billion in 2022, the brief highlights critical concerns regarding the lack of parliamentary oversight, centralized decision-making in the President's office, and alleged human rights violations by end-users in conflict zones like Ethiopia and Libya.

The Resilience Evidence Forum 2023 Synthesis Report outlines a multi-scalar approach to building resilience, focusing on people, communities, urban systems, socio-ecological systems, and market systems. It emphasizes the transition from top-down measurement to co-produced evidence that integrates local and Indigenous knowledge with scientific data. The report identifies critical gaps in funding for climate resilience—noting that less than $50 billion is spent annually against needs of $160-340 billion—and advocates for gender-transformative approaches, integrated health and nutrition systems, and the use of mixed-methods to capture transformative, long-term outcomes rather than just short-term recovery.

The document explores how ethics functions within peace negotiations, arguing that while often implicit or subordinated to power and strategy, ethical considerations significantly impact the process. Using the 'situated holism framework'—which analyzes positions, participants, practices, procedures, and principles—the author identifies key ethical dilemmas, such as the tradeoff between immediate peace and long-term justice, the legitimacy of including controversial stakeholders, and the tension between a negotiator's mandate and the urgency of reaching an agreement. The findings suggest that ethics in this field is often a matter of 'principled realism,' where normative concerns coexist with realpolitik.

The February 2023 earthquakes in southern Türkiye and northern Syria caused massive loss of life and displacement, including a collective trauma for the Turkish Cypriot community after a school volleyball team from Famagusta perished. While the disaster initially sparked empathy and solidarity from Greek Cypriots, political tensions regarding recognition and sovereignty quickly impeded structured cooperation. The authors argue that Cyprus remains vulnerable to natural disasters and should utilize UN-established Technical Committees and EU disaster resilience frameworks, such as prepEU and rescEU, to develop joint crisis management plans.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that 30 fossil fuel companies are responsible for 43% of the industry's global methane emissions. The analysis identifies the National Iranian Oil Company as the largest emitter and highlights the dominance of Chinese state-owned enterprises in coal mine methane emissions. The report emphasizes that emissions vary based on infrastructure age, operator type, and geographic location, noting that some oil and gas emissions could be reduced at no net cost.

The document outlines the strategic importance of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in a global security landscape characterized by a severe trust deficit and the collapse of many arms control treaties. The authors argue that the CWC serves as a vital remaining pillar for international cooperation on nonproliferation. They highlight risks of chemical weapons proliferation driven by hybrid warfare, technological convergence of chemistry and biology, and the erosion of the 'taboo' against chemical weapon use. The text recommends maintaining technical 'on-ramps' for future elimination missions, shifting toward 'deterrence by denial' through enhanced defensive capabilities, and increasing public awareness of WMD risks and historical elimination successes.

The GCF is implementing a four-pillar operational framework to enhance coordination with other climate funds. Key achievements include the establishment of a joint steering committee for the Long-Term Vision (LTV) with the GEF, the fast-track reaccreditation of nine entities with the AF, and the development of a joint GCF-GEF pavilion for COP 26 and COP 27. The report details specific funding proposals and readiness grants that demonstrate national programming coherence, as well as ongoing technical dialogues to harmonize results indicators and impact measurement methodologies across funds.

The paper examines how the Russia-Ukraine conflict challenges the BRICS bloc's stated principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. It analyzes the divergent voting patterns of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa at the United Nations, noting that the group lacks a common stance on the conflict. While the bloc advocates for a more equitable international order and criticizes Western double standards, the author argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine risks compromising the bloc's credibility and creating a precedent where powerful states ignore international principles.

The document examines how the Russia-Ukraine war has destabilized energy markets, undermining Russia's role as an 'energy superpower' and creating significant economic pressure on the Global South. It presents three scenarios: 'Stable high' prices, 'Persistent volatility', and 'Business as usual', analyzing how each affects national budgets, regional stability in the Middle East and Africa, and the global transition to renewable energy. The authors argue that while the crisis may incentivize some decarbonization, it also risks locking in fossil fuel production in the Global South and prioritizing immediate energy security over Paris Agreement goals.

Russia has increased its presence in Africa through defense and security partnerships, positioning itself as an alternative to Western paternalism. However, the document argues that Russia lacks the financial capacity to compete with the U.S., EU, and China, as evidenced by its modest trade volume and the contrast with China's massive infrastructure investments. The war in Ukraine has further complicated this strategy by draining resources and increasing international sanctions.

Based on a representative survey of 811 Ukrainians in April 2022, the study finds that the vast majority of the population remained in their home provinces despite the invasion. Among those who did migrate, three quarters stayed within Ukraine, often moving toward safer western regions like Lviv. The analysis indicates that personal exposure to direct attacks significantly increases the likelihood of a person planning to leave their current location, while the targeting of friends or family does not have a significant effect.

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility to 'gray zone' and asymmetric warfare. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either drive nations toward biological weapons as a low-cost deterrent or catalyze a new era of international cooperation. The authors identify critical gaps in U.S. policy, including an over-emphasis on bioterrorism over state-based threats and declining biodefense funding, recommending a 'deterrence by denial' strategy and increased international collaboration.

The report assesses the climate security landscape of the Levant, focusing on the interplay between governance, cooperation, and technology. It identifies severe heatwaves, rainfall reduction, and water scarcity as primary physical risks. Through four scenarios, the authors argue that while large-scale projects require stable governance and cross-border agreements, the widespread availability of small-scale adaptive technologies could provide a critical resilience pathway for populations in states with poor or predatory governance.

The Green Economy Coalition (GEC) and partners in The People’s Global Summit express solidarity with populations suffering from armed conflict, specifically highlighting the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. The document emphasizes the need for a 'New Eco-Social World' and the pursuit of shared global values to create sustainable communities and environments.

Russia is employing a strategy of 'hedging its bets' in Libya, maintaining relations with the UN-recognised Government of National Unity while simultaneously supporting Khalifa Haftar via private military contractors and backing Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. By supporting the postponement of elections and denying links to the Wagner Group, Moscow aims to erode Western influence, maintain a Mediterranean naval presence, and ensure a permanent military foothold regardless of the political outcome.

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility and strategic deterrence toward hybrid warfare and assassination tools. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either trigger a new era of proliferation or foster unprecedented international cooperation. The authors propose three future scenarios: one where bioweapons become a key component of deterrence, one where the world pivots toward collective biosecurity, and a hybrid world of ambiguous threats driven by disinformation. The report concludes that U.S. policy must rebalance its focus from bioterrorism to state-based threats and increase funding for biodefense.

The document analyzes the deepening strategic, economic, and military ties between Israel and the Republic of Cyprus, emphasizing the role of the trilateral Israel-Cyprus-Greece framework. It finds that while Israeli elites view Cyprus as a loyal ally and a bridge to the European Union, there is a significant lack of awareness regarding the relationship's depth among the broader Israeli public and some lawmakers.

The report analyzes global conflict dynamics, noting that state-based conflicts reached historic highs in 2019 and 2020. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving conflict numbers and the rise of non-state conflicts, particularly in the Americas and Africa. The document also tracks the declining success rates of non-violent resistance campaigns and the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence, which is most frequently recorded in Africa.