Russia hedging all bets amid uncertainty and turmoil in Libya after elections postponed

Russia is employing a strategy of 'hedging its bets' in Libya, maintaining relations with the UN-recognised Government of National Unity while simultaneously supporting Khalifa Haftar via private military contractors and backing Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. By supporting the postponement of elections and denying links to the Wagner Group, Moscow aims to erode Western influence, maintain a Mediterranean naval presence, and ensure a permanent military foothold regardless of the political outcome.

• Russia utilizes a multifaceted approach to ensure it remains a key negotiator in Libya regardless of election outcomes, combining official diplomatic engagement with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and unofficial support for other actors.
• The Kremlin has provided military support to Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army through private military contractors, specifically the Wagner Group, which deployed approximately 1,000 fighters between 2019 and 2020, despite official Russian denials of any connection.
• Russia has unofficially supported Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and utilized disinformation campaigns via social media accounts based outside Libya to portray him as a stabilising figure while criticising the UN-backed GNU.
• Russia's strategic interests in Libya include maintaining a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean, eroding Western influence in North Africa, and expanding its footprint in unstable countries across the African continent.
• Russia supported the postponement of Libya's December 2021 elections, arguing that the process should be substantive and inclusive rather than meeting a formal deadline.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). Russia hedging all bets amid uncertainty and turmoil in Libya after elections postponed. https://saiia.org.za/research/russia-hedging-all-bets-amid-uncertainty-and-turmoil-in-libya-after-elections-postponed/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Russia hedging all bets amid uncertainty and turmoil in Libya after elections postponed. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/russia-hedging-all-bets-amid-uncertainty-and-turmoil-in-libya-after-elections-postponed/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Russia hedging all bets amid uncertainty and turmoil in Libya after elections postponed |date=22 February 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/russia-hedging-all-bets-amid-uncertainty-and-turmoil-in-libya-after-elections-postponed/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022russia, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Russia hedging all bets amid uncertainty and turmoil in Libya after elections postponed}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/russia-hedging-all-bets-amid-uncertainty-and-turmoil-in-libya-after-elections-postponed/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }