Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Based on a representative survey of 811 Ukrainians in April 2022, the study finds that the vast majority of the population remained in their home provinces despite the invasion. Among those who did migrate, three quarters stayed within Ukraine, often moving toward safer western regions like Lviv. The analysis indicates that personal exposure to direct attacks significantly increases the likelihood of a person planning to leave their current location, while the targeting of friends or family does not have a significant effect.

• Despite large-scale displacement, a significant majority of the surveyed population remained in their original oblasts, with only 14.1% of respondents reporting that they had migrated since 24 February 2022.
• Internal displacement was more common than fleeing the country; of the respondents who moved from their home oblast, 75% remained within Ukraine, while 24.1% travelled abroad.
• Migration patterns within Ukraine showed a trend of movement toward safer areas, with Lviv and Poltava being notable destinations for those leaving their home provinces.
• A high proportion of respondents viewed it as very unlikely that they would leave their current location within the following month, particularly those in areas less affected by fighting.
• Direct personal exposure to conflict—defined as being targeted by firearms, artillery, or other weapons—significantly increases the likelihood of a person wanting to leave, raising the likelihood by 19%.
• While personal exposure to violence drives migration plans, the targeting of a respondent's friends or family did not significantly affect their reported likelihood of leaving.
• Gender differences in migration likelihood were observed, with women being slightly more likely than men to consider leaving, although the proportion of both genders who found leaving 'extremely unlikely' was similar.

APA

Tollefsen, A. F., & Erdal, M. B. (2022). Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://www.prio.org/comments/649

Chicago

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø, and Marta Bivand Erdal. Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://www.prio.org/comments/649.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tollefsen |first1=Andreas Forø |last2=Erdal |first2=Marta Bivand |title=Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=30 May 2022 |url=https://www.prio.org/comments/649 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tollefsen2022staying, author = {Tollefsen, Andreas Forø and Erdal, Marta Bivand}, title = {{Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www.prio.org/comments/649}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }