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The report details how Shell and TotalEnergies integrate themselves across the VCM value chain—from project development and trading to influencing governance—to maintain fossil fuel production while claiming progress toward net-zero. It highlights systemic issues with the integrity of the credits they use, specifically in forestry and cookstove projects, and notes that neither company has a decarbonisation plan aligned with the Paris Agreement.

The Climate Bonds Initiative has developed an Equivalence Methodology to reduce market fragmentation caused by the proliferation of over 65 national and regional sustainable finance taxonomies. The methodology provides a technical framework to determine if externally developed activity-level and measures-level criteria are 'equivalent' to Climate Bonds' science-based standards. Criteria deemed equivalent will be integrated into the Climate Bonds Taxonomy and its Standard & Certification Scheme, creating a single reference point for global capital flows. The process involves screening for alignment with temperature goals, scientific robustness, and governance transparency, with a specific distinction between criteria applicable globally versus those limited to a specific local jurisdiction.

The report analyzes six public climate finance interventions—ranging from local adaptation grants in Africa and Asia to a debt-for-nature swap in Ecuador—to test a framework for 'transformational' finance. It argues that high-quality climate finance is not defined by the financial instrument alone but by its ability to build an 'enabling environment' and deliver results across project, market, and system levels. Key findings highlight a persistent tension between the scale of finance and the quality of subnational accessibility, as well as significant data gaps in measuring system-level impacts and the depth of integration of equity and justice dimensions.

The report evaluates Uganda's path toward middle-income status by 2040, analyzing scenarios across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance. It finds that while the 'Current Path' falls short of Vision 2040 targets, a combined implementation of strategic interventions could lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty and raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040, reaching the US$9,500 target by 2045. Key drivers for growth include large-scale infrastructure and leapfrogging, which is identified as having the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. However, these gains are accompanied by a projected 30% increase in carbon emissions above the Current Path, primarily driven by manufacturing and governance improvements.

Tanzania is a lower-middle-income country in East Africa characterized by steady GDP growth but significant gaps in human development and political stability. While the economy has grown at an average of 6% annually, the country faces persistent poverty and environmental challenges such as deforestation and soil erosion. Politically, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) maintains dominance, though the 2025 general elections were marked by irregularities, violence, and the suppression of opposition parties, leading to international condemnation and a deepening governance crisis.

The document outlines Uganda's transition to multiparty democracy and its current governance structure. It details the country's natural resource wealth, specifically the discovery of oil reserves on Lake Albert and the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), while noting environmental opposition from the European Union Parliament. The text also traces Uganda's economic planning from early independence through to Vision 2040 and the current Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), which focuses on resource-led industrialisation to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2040.

The report concludes that while Rwanda has made significant development strides, it may not reach its Vision 2050 targets under current trends due to structural economic issues. However, a 'Combined' scenario involving integrated policies across governance, energy, and education could see GDP reach US$267.1 billion and extreme poverty drop to 0.04% by 2050. Key recommendations include transitioning to renewable energy, formalising the informal sector, and adopting climate-smart agriculture.

The report analyzes Rwanda's economic trajectory through 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against scenarios focusing on governance, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, and agriculture. It finds that while Rwanda's GDP per capita is projected to grow, the Governance scenario offers the most significant potential for increasing wealth and reducing extreme poverty. The analysis also highlights the role of financial flows and trade openness in poverty reduction, while noting that the Agriculture scenario has a marginal impact due to the declining share of agriculture in the national GDP.

The document outlines Rwanda's transition from a low-income country to its aspirations for high-income status by 2050. It details the 'Vision 2050' strategic plan, which focuses on human development, competitiveness, agriculture, urbanisation, and state institutions. While Rwanda has seen significant GDP growth—averaging 7.2% from 2009 to 2019—it faces structural challenges including high inflation, rising external debt, and a large informal sector. The report also notes the role of the Rwanda Energy Group and the use of Lake Kivu for biogas extraction to meet energy needs.

The report analyzes Rwanda's development trajectories, finding that a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral improvements would significantly boost GDP and GDP per capita, potentially making Rwanda a high-income country by 2050. While this scenario drastically reduces extreme poverty and improves life expectancy, it also leads to higher carbon emissions than the Current Path and fails to meet Vision 2050's specific inequality targets. The economic structure would shift from service-led to manufacturing-led by 2050.

The report analyzes Djibouti's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with sectoral and combined scenarios. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it falls short of Vision 2035 targets. A 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms in governance, finance, and trade could accelerate GDP growth to 8.9% and triple per capita income. The analysis emphasizes that Djibouti's primary constraints are not infrastructure gaps, but rather the efficiency and inclusiveness of its growth model, which remains heavily dependent on port logistics and external debt.

The IEU report for February to May 2026 outlines the progress of several independent evaluations, including those on gender, the Project Preparation Facility, and the private sector. It highlights the ongoing Third Performance Review (TPR) and the LORTA impact evaluation programme, which supports 23 evaluations. The Unit also reports on its strategic engagement with other multilateral climate funds, the use of AI in evaluation synthesis, and its budget expenditure, which stood at 19% (USD 1.5 million) of the annual budget as of 30 April 2026.

The report examines how Vertical Climate and Environment Funds (VCEFs)—specifically the Green Climate Fund (GCF), Global Environment Facility (GEF), Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and Adaptation Fund (AF)—can better mobilize private climate finance for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). It identifies three primary opportunities: implementing sequential financing to move projects from ideation to scale, increasing collaboration with the global network of public development banks (PDBs), and aligning funding with country-driven investment plans. The document emphasizes the need to address the high cost of capital in EMDEs to enable greater real-economy transformation as public climate finance becomes more constrained.

The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.

African ClimateTech has grown significantly, with funding increasing from $206 million in 2016 to over $1.5 billion in 2025, now accounting for nearly 40% of all disclosed venture funding on the continent. However, this growth is highly concentrated: the top 10 companies raised as much as all other companies combined, and Energy accounts for roughly 65% of total funding. The report argues that the ecosystem is not a single market but a collection of applications maturing at different speeds. Energy Generation has reached 'Early Maturity,' while Mobility & Transport is in 'Late Frenzy.' Conversely, Water Access and Built Materials remain in 'Irruption.' A critical finding is that financial maturity, rather than technological readiness, is the primary constraint, with significant gaps in early-stage equity and working capital. The report advocates for 'tailored capital stacks' that combine grants, equity, and debt based on the specific maturity stage of each application.

Africa's green transition is projected to generate between 3.8 and 7.9 million jobs by 2030, rising to 65.9–84.5 million by 2050. The report argues that this growth will be service-led and decentralized, with indirect roles—such as installation, distribution, and maintenance—accounting for 56% of employment by 2030. Clean cooking is identified as the largest green value chain by 2030. However, the report highlights significant structural inequalities: 86% of 2030 green jobs are projected to be informal, and women remain concentrated in low-value roles despite high participation in sectors like clean cooking. The analysis of South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya reveals diverse transition architectures, ranging from South Africa's formal, utility-scale model to Nigeria's nano-enterprise-driven decentralized approach. Key recommendations include directing finance toward service-led value chains, reforming TVET systems through modular programs, and extending social protection to informal workers via mobile platforms.

Global Witness reveals that coltan from conflict-affected mines in the DRC is being smuggled into Rwanda, where it is laundered through traceability systems like ITSCI and Better Mining. The report identifies seven Rwandan companies dominating these exports, which are then processed by smelters in China, Kazakhstan, and Thailand, potentially reaching major global brands such as Apple, Microsoft, and Toyota.

Global Witness reports that conflict coltan from the DRC's Rubaya mines is being smuggled into Rwanda and laundered into global supply chains through failed due diligence systems like ITSCI and Better Mining. The investigation identifies seven Rwandan companies responsible for 85% of exports, five of which are directly linked to conflict coltan. This material is processed by smelters in China, Kazakhstan, and Thailand, eventually reaching global brands such as Apple, Microsoft, and Toyota via tantalum capacitors.

The inventory identifies a diverse range of NbS in Uganda, primarily focused on wetland and catchment restoration, forest management, and agroforestry. These interventions address coupled challenges of food insecurity, water stress, and disaster risk. Key projects include the GCF FP034 wetland restoration and the CAPA Initiative in the Greater Virunga Landscape. While social inclusion is present, it is unevenly documented across the portfolio.

The document outlines a comprehensive approach to developing adaptation indicators, emphasizing that they must be grounded in a Theory of Change (ToC) and national context rather than solely in global frameworks. It details a 10-step process (grouped into design, implementation, and learning phases) to move from clarifying objectives to institutionalizing data collection and conducting regular reviews. The guide highlights the importance of using a mix of quantitative and qualitative indicators, ensuring gender and social inclusion (GESI) through data disaggregation, and piloting systems before full-scale rollout to ensure feasibility and data quality.