RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons

This report by the Institute for Security Studies compares various economic scenarios for Rwanda's GDP per capita and poverty levels from 2019 to 2043. It evaluates the potential impacts of governance, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, and financial flows on the country's development trajectory relative to its 'Current Path' and the goals of Vision 2050.

• On the Current Path, Rwanda's GDP per capita (PPP) is projected to reach US$4,937 by 2043, which would be 41.3% higher than the average for its low-income African peers. By 2050, it is expected to reach US$6,691, the highest among low-income African countries, though this is only about half of the US$12,476 target set by Rwandan authorities for Vision 2050.
• The Governance scenario is identified as having the most significant positive impact on both GDP per capita and poverty reduction. By 2043, it could raise GDP per capita to US$6,010 (a 21.7% increase over the Current Path) and reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty to 2.4 million (12% of the population), which is 1.1 million fewer people than the Current Path forecast.
• Other scenarios also offer growth potential: the AfCFTA scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$5,546 by 2043 through increased exports and manufacturing; the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario could reach US$5,473 by reducing business transaction costs via broadband; and the Financial Flows scenario is noted as the second-largest driver for poverty reduction, potentially leaving 2.8 million people in extreme poverty by 2043.
• Rwanda's poverty rate, measured by the US$1.90 per person per day benchmark, was 52.4% (6.4 million people) in 2019. On the Current Path, this is projected to drop to 17.6% (3.5 million people) by 2043. The report notes that poverty reduction has become less responsive to growth recently and that welfare programs like the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) have been criticized for focusing on Kigali and failing to address rural root causes.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & le Roux, A. (2026). RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Alize le Roux. RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026rwanda, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }