RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons

The report analyzes Rwanda's economic trajectory through 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against scenarios focusing on governance, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, and agriculture. It finds that while Rwanda's GDP per capita is projected to grow, the Governance scenario offers the most significant potential for increasing wealth and reducing extreme poverty. The analysis also highlights the role of financial flows and trade openness in poverty reduction, while noting that the Agriculture scenario has a marginal impact due to the declining share of agriculture in the national GDP.

• On the Current Path, Rwanda's GDP per capita (PPP) is projected to reach US$4,937 by 2043, which would be 41.3% higher than the average for its low-income African peers. By 2050, this path suggests a GDP per capita of US$6,691, though this is approximately half of the US$12,476 target set by Rwandan authorities.
• The Governance scenario is identified as having the greatest positive impact on both wealth and poverty reduction. By 2043, it could raise GDP per capita to US$6,010 (a 21.7% increase over the Current Path) and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to 2.4 million (12% of the population), compared to 3.5 million (17.6%) on the Current Path.
• Trade and infrastructure scenarios also provide significant gains: the AfCFTA scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$5,546 by 2043, while the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario could reach US$5,473. The AfCFTA scenario is expected to reduce extreme poverty by approximately 655,000 people relative to the Current Path.
• The Agriculture scenario has a marginal effect on GDP per capita, reaching US$4,981 by 2043, which is only US$44.3 above the Current Path. This limited impact is attributed to the expected decline in agriculture's contribution to the overall GDP over the period.
• Financial flows, particularly aid, are highlighted as critical for poverty reduction; the Financial Flows scenario is the second-most effective at reducing poverty, projecting 2.8 million people (25% of the population) in extreme poverty by 2043, which is 705,000 fewer than the Current Path.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & le Roux, A. (2026). RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Alize le Roux. RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026rwanda, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=RW&topic=03-scenario-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }