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RWANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Scenario comparisons
The report analyzes Rwanda's economic trajectory through 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against scenarios focusing on governance, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, and agriculture. It finds that while Rwanda's GDP per capita is projected to grow, the Governance scenario offers the most significant potential for increasing wealth and reducing extreme poverty. The analysis also highlights the role of financial flows and trade openness in poverty reduction, while noting that the Agriculture scenario has a marginal impact due to the declining share of agriculture in the national GDP.
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Document type: Report
Production Gap Report 2023
The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit. While many major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, most continue to expand production, with global coal production projected to increase until 2030 and oil and gas until at least 2050. The report argues for a managed, equitable phase-out of all fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical uncertainties and a poor track record of pilot project success.
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Document type: Report
Financing a 1.5˚C-Aligned Transition
The document establishes a consensus across multiple energy models, including the IEA NZE and IPCC pathways, that no new oil and gas fields should be developed to meet the 1.5 target. It argues that oil and gas production must decline by at least 65% by 2050 from 2020 levels. The brief asserts that the energy crisis in Europe caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine does not justify new fossil fuel production, as existing capacity and demand reduction can meet needs. It highlights a significant investment gap in renewables, noting that annual solar and wind investments must reach USD 830 billion by 2030 to bridge a USD 450 billion annual gap. Finally, it recommends that financial institutions cease financing new oil and gas projects and push for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises
The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that global governments plan to produce significantly more fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050 than is consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. Despite net-zero pledges, many major producers continue to plan increases in coal, oil, and gas extraction. The report argues for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties.
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Document type: Executive summary
The uk clean power plan
The briefing analyzes pathways from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), National Grid, and Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) to demonstrate that the UK power sector can be nearly fossil-free by 2035. It argues that phasing out unabated gas will reduce reliance on expensive imports, lower electricity bills, and stimulate a green industrial revolution. While the models differ on the roles of nuclear and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), they agree on the centrality of wind and solar power and the need for increased energy storage and hydrogen capacity.
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Document type: Briefing
Global Electricity Review
The 2020 Global Electricity Review reports a record 3% fall in global coal-fired electricity generation and a 2% drop in power sector CO2 emissions in 2019. While coal collapsed in the EU and US, generation rose in China, which now accounts for over 50% of global coal generation. Wind and solar generation grew by 15%, providing 8% of the world's electricity. However, the report argues that these declines are largely due to one-off factors and that current progress is insufficient to meet the IPCC's 1.5°C scenario, which would require coal generation to collapse by 11% annually until 2030.
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Document type: Report
Consistency of policy instruments
The report analyzes how the EU can move to a 30% greenhouse gas reduction target by 2020. It finds that full implementation of existing renewable energy and energy efficiency targets could lead to a domestic reduction of approximately 30%, though current policy instruments for energy efficiency are insufficient. The report also examines the role of offsets and LULUCF accounting, noting that these could reduce the required domestic effort to approximately 20% while still nominally meeting a 30% target. It concludes that the EU ETS cap would need significant adjustment—potentially to 29-43% below 2005 levels—to remain consistent with these targets.
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Document type: Report